A Decision Framework for the Adaptive Management of an Exploited Species with Implications for Marine Reserves

Abstract:  Marine reserves have both conservation and fishery benefits. Nevertheless, there are no general criteria about when and where to establish new reserves, how to evaluate their efficacy, and how to conduct adaptive management to achieve conservation goals. We applied a decision-theory framework to optimally allocate conservation resources between improving data on population status and establishing a reserve for species conservation. Our goal was to maximize reserve benefits given the constraints of a population growth rate that would permit sustainability of resources. We illustrate our decision framework with a retrospective analysis of a 7-year time series on abundance of the leopard grouper ( Mycteroperca rosacea ) in the Sea of Cortés, Mexico. We used the lower bound of the distribution of the population growth rate ( λ ) as a decision rule for determining how many years of monitoring are needed to detect reserve effects. We determined the minimum time frame needed to estimate λ based on a stated level of risk tolerance for four sites. As expected, the coefficient of variation for the λ declined with the number of years of data. This increased precision with additional years of data resulted from the high degree of annual variability in the system. Where populations were slow to respond to reserves, more data were needed to detect a positive λ value. For the leopard grouper case study, confidence in the estimate of λ increased with the number of years of data. Our decision framework may be used to identify the minimum number of years of data needed before a management decision about reserve establishment could be made that is reasonably likely to meet its management objectives.     

A dynamic model of mating behavior in digger wasps: the energetics of male-male competition mimic size-dependent thermal constraints

I develop a state-based dynamic model of behavior to demonstrate that size-dependent differences in temperature tolerances are not necessary to account for the activity of small male digger wasps late in the day. In the model, males defend or patrol the nesting area, wait near nests, or feed away from the nesting area depending on time of day, energy reserves and size rank. I assume a large male competitive advantage, so mating opportunities decrease with size rank for territorial or patrolling males and are rare for all waiting males; the costs of patrolling or defense are higher than the costs of waiting. If energy reserves of all males are initially small, all males alternate feeding and territorial or patrolling behavior. If energy reserves are initially large, large males patrol or maintain territories until they risk starvation and leave the area to feed. At this time, smaller males that have conserved their resources by waiting and feeding may defend territories or patrol. I simulate the behavior of three populations representing two species of Microbembex by assuming large initial energy reserves for populations in which males were territorial and small initial reserves for populations in which males patrolled, and then convert the predicted time of activity to temperature using local regressions from field studies. Temporal patterns in the activity of large and small males were similar to those actually observed, and relationships between size and temperature predicted by the model corresponded to most observations and were sometimes positive. Thus, the delayed activity of smaller males does not correspond to activity at higher temperatures and is probably not attributable to size-dependent thermal tolerances, but may represent a temporal displacement of mating activity due to intra-sexual competition and mediated by energetics. The model makes testable predictions on the timing of feeding and depletion of energy reserves in relation to size and initial energy state, and suggests how differences among species may influence the temporal and spatial organization of male mating behavior. Received: 27 February 1997 / Accepted after revision: 26 July 1997     

Insights into the costs of complex maternal care behavior in the burrower bug (Sehirus cinctus)

The evolution of life history characters, including parental care behaviors, depends on costs and benefits. When offspring can influence parental behaviors, parent-offspring conflict over parental care can occur, but only if these parental behaviors are costly. Mother burrower bugs (Sehirus cinctus) exhibit extended and complex care of offspring. Mothers guard eggs until hatching and then attend and provision offspring for approximately 2 weeks after hatching. Using four experimental treatments, we attempted to identify the costs associated with specific components of these behaviors. Under laboratory conditions, egg guarding increases inter-clutch interval, but provisioning does not appear to be very costly. We discuss additional ecological factors that may be important in mediating provisioning costs under natural conditions. Through analysis of individual maternal performance, we find no evidence for trade-offs between successive clutches. These data suggest that variation in overall condition may obscure variation in allocation strategies.Communicated by F. Trillmich     

Designing Systematic Conservation Assessments that Promote Effective Implementation: Best Practice from South Africa

Abstract:  Systematic conservation assessment and conservation planning are two distinct fields of conservation science often confused as one and the same. Systematic conservation assessment is the technical, often computer-based, identification of priority areas for conservation. Conservation planning is composed of a systematic conservation assessment coupled with processes for development of an implementation strategy and stakeholder collaboration. The peer-reviewed conservation biology literature abounds with studies analyzing the performance of assessments (e.g., area-selection techniques). This information alone, however, can never deliver effective conservation action; it informs conservation planning. Examples of how to translate systematic assessment outputs into knowledge and then use them for "doing" conservation are rare. South Africa has received generous international and domestic funding for regional conservation planning since the mid-1990s. We reviewed eight South African conservation planning processes and identified key ingredients of best practice for undertaking systematic conservation assessments in a way that facilitates implementing conservation action. These key ingredients include the design of conservation planning processes, skills for conservation assessment teams, collaboration with stakeholders, and interpretation and mainstreaming of products (e.g., maps) for stakeholders. Social learning institutions are critical to the successful operationalization of assessments within broader conservation planning processes and should include not only conservation planners but also diverse interest groups, including rural landowners, politicians, and government employees.     

Enhancing Sustainability of the International Trade in Seahorses with a Single Minimum Size Limit

Abstract:  Management tools are needed to help regulate the international trade in seahorses (  Hippocampus spp.) under the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES) of Wild Fauna and Flora. Given the limited understanding of seahorse population dynamics and fishing mortality, a single minimum size limit for all seahorse species appears to be a useful initial step toward adaptive management, both biologically and socially. We collected data on maximum height and size at first maturity for 32 seahorse species and cross-validated the data with results from an analysis across marine teleosts. A minimum height restriction of 10 cm would permit, based on calculated data, reproduction in 15 species before they recruited to the fishery. Of the remaining 17 species, 16 were essentially not in international trade, were safeguarded under domestic legislation, or were partly protected by this size limit. Only one species, H. kelloggi , was not well served by the 10-cm minimum size limit. The CITES technical committee on animals has now decided to propose this single size limit to all 167 signatory nations as one option toward sustainable trade. Complementary management measures for seahorses are also required, particularly for populations primarily exploited in bycatch.     

Bush Tucker, Bush Pets, and Bush Threats: Cooperative Management of Feral Animals in Australia's Kakadu National Park

Abstract:  Although feral animal management is often based on the proposition that introduced species threaten ecological and conservation values, that view is not necessarily shared by all stakeholders, including those indigenous people who own and co-manage Kakadu National Park with Australia's federal government. Drawing on field-based interviews with the Jawoyn people, we found that these indigenous people categorize water buffalo (  Bubalus bubalis ) as an important food source (tucker), view horses (  Equus caballus ) as bush pets, and consider pigs (  Sus scrofa ) a threat to their lands. As a result, Jawoyn people want more water buffalo in the park, have high tolerance of environmental damage caused by horses, and are open to the idea that pig population densities should be reduced. Jawoyn also advocate an adaptive and participatory approach to feral animal control so that the consequences of any management actions can be properly understood before irrevocable change occurs. These findings highlight one example of how indigenous people's ecological knowledge has adapted in response to changing landscapes and community aspirations. Co-management strategies that aim to incorporate the dynamics of indigenous people's views need to start with issues on which there is agreement between different groups and take a cautious approach to joint exploration of more contentious issues. That approach should include ongoing and on-site monitoring so that the consequences of management actions can be properly understood and comprehensively negotiated by all parties.     

High beam headlamp use rates: Effects of rurality,proximity of other traffic,and roadway curvature

Objective: The few observational studies of the prevalence of high beam use indicate the rate of high beam use is about 25% when vehicles are isolated from other vehicles on unlit roads. Recent studies were limited to 2-lane rural roads and used measurement methods that likely overestimated use. The current study examined factors associated with the rate of high beam use of isolated vehicles on a variety of roadways in the Ann Arbor, Michigan area.

Methods: Twenty observation sites were categorized as urban, rural, or on a rural/urban boundary and selected to estimate the effects of street lighting, road curvature, and direction of travel relative to the city on high beam use. Sites were selected in pairs so that a majority of traffic passing one site also passed through the other. Measurement of high beams relied on video data recorded for 2 nights at each site, and the video data also were used to derive a precise measure of the proximity of other traffic. Nearly 3,200 isolated vehicles (10 s or longer from other vehicles) were observed, representing 1,500-plus vehicle pairs.

Results: Across the sample, 18% of the vehicles used high beams. Seventy-three percent of the 1,500-plus vehicle pairs used low beams at each paired site, whereas 9% used high beams at both sites. Vehicles at rural sites and sites at the boundaries of Ann Arbor were more likely to use high beams than vehicles at urban sites, but use in rural areas compared with rural/urban boundary areas did not vary significantly. Rates at all sites were much lower than expected, ranging from 0.9 to 52.9%. High beam use generally increased with greater time between subject vehicles and leading vehicles and vehicles in the opposing lane. There were mixed findings associated with street lighting, road curvature, and direction of travel relative to the city.

Conclusion: Maximizing visibility available to drivers from headlights includes addressing the substantial underuse of high beam headlamps. Advanced technologies such as high beam assist, which switches automatically between high and low beam headlamps depending on the presence of other traffic, can help to address this problem.     

A practical dialogue protocol for sustainability science to contribute to regional resources management: its implementation in Réunion

Over the last decade, adaptive co‐management has been recommended as a policy framework to address complex and uncertain resources management issues. Implementing this theoretical management concept requires the integration of multidisciplinary research and local knowledge. Yet practical protocols to link science, policymaking and societies have yet to be developed. We designed a protocol to produce legitimate, credible and relevant solutions to a regional resources management issue. This is a two‐component protocol. A stakeholder grid categorizes stakeholder representatives in three distinct specialized dialogue arenas: institution representatives, technical experts and local end‐users. An iterative co‐design process then builds on these arenas to assess the institutional legitimacy, technical credibility and empirical relevance dimensions of a common solution initiated by an initial plausible promise. We tested this framework in Réunion to address organic waste management issues at the regional level. The plausible solution explored was the introduction of a recycling industry involved in collecting organic waste and producing and selling organic fertilizers tailored for local crop systems. The protocol application outcomes were consolidated and documented scenarios accepted by all, with knowledge exchange and the broad spread of a stabilized expectation contributing to private initiatives and public policy change.     

Adaptive Management and Climate Change Adaptation: Two Mutually Beneficial Areas of Practice

Adaptive management (AM) is a rigorous approach to implementing, monitoring, and evaluating actions, so as to learn and adjust those actions. Existing AM projects are at risk from climate change, and current AM guidance does not provide adequate methods to deal with this risk. Climate change adaptation (CCA) is an approach to plan and implement actions to reduce risks from climate variability and climate change, and to exploit beneficial opportunities. AM projects could be made more resilient to extreme climate events by applying the principles and procedures of CCA. To test this idea, we analyze the effects of extreme climatic events on five existing AM projects focused on ecosystem restoration and species recovery, in the Russian, Trinity, Okanagan, Platte, and Missouri River Basins. We examine these five case studies together to generate insights on how integrating CCA principles and practices into their design and implementation could improve their sustainability, despite significant technical and institutional challenges, particularly at larger scales. Although climate change brings substantial risks to AM projects, it may also provide opportunities, including creating new habitats, increasing the ability to quickly test flow‐habitat hypotheses, stimulating improvements in watershed management and water conservation, expanding the use of real‐time tools for flow management, and catalyzing creative application of CCA principles and procedures.     

城镇油气管道事故应急疏散决策优化

为实现油气管道事故中城镇大规模应急疏散的智慧决策,构建基于改进的自适应蚁群算法的应急疏散路径优化模型,开发基于油气管道典型事故后果分析的城镇大规模应急疏散决策优化系统平台(LSSED)。LSSED在地理信息系统平台上,针对油气管道泄漏引起的扩散、喷射火、池火、BLEVE、蒸气云爆炸等典型事故进行事故后果分析,对疏散通道当量长度和疏散时间成本函数进行定量评价,实现大规模应急疏散方案的智慧决策和避难方案的全局优化。案例分析表明,LSSED平台实现了基于地理信息系统的典型事故时变环境信息和应急疏散路径优化算法的数据传递及系统集成,实现了基于事故后果分析的城镇大规模人群疏散路径和避难方案优化,可为城镇安全规划和应急管理提供参考和借鉴。