基于ANFIS模型的基坑工程位移反分析

在软土地基深基坑开挖支护工程的设计与施工中,岩土体力学参数的取值问题是关键。基于MATLAB(R2007a)模糊工具箱中的自适应神经模糊推理系统(ANFIS)对基坑岩土体力学参数进行了位移反演分析,并结合汉口火车站出站厅基坑工程实例,动态反演了具体参数,检验了反演精度,从而验证了该方法用于基坑工程位移反分析的可行性及工程适用性。     

Integrated strategies to reduce vulnerability and advance adaptation,mitigation, and sustainable development

Determinants of adaptive and mitigative capacities (e.g., availability of technological options, and access to economic resources, social capital and human capital) largely overlap. Several factors underlying or related to these determinants are themselves indicators of sustainable development (e.g., per capita income; and various public health, education and research indices). Moreover, climate change could exacerbate existing climate-sensitive hurdles to sustainable development (e.g., hunger, malaria, water shortage, coastal flooding and threats to biodiversity) faced specifically by many developing countries. Based on these commonalities, the paper identifies integrated approaches to formulating strategies and measures to concurrently advance adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development. These approaches range from broadly moving sustainable development forward (by developing and/or nurturing institutions, policies and infrastructure to stimulate economic development, technological change, human and social capital, and reducing specific barriers to sustainable development) to reducing vulnerabilities to urgent climate-sensitive risks that hinder sustainable development and would worsen with climate change. The resulting sustainable economic development would also help reduce birth rates, which could mitigate climate change and reduce the population exposed to climate change and climate-sensitive risks, thereby reducing impacts, and the demand for adaptation. The paper also offers a portfolio of pro-active strategies and measures consistent with the above approaches, including example measures that would simultaneously reduce pressures on biodiversity, hunger, and carbon sinks. Finally it addresses some common misconceptions that could hamper fuller integration of adaptation and mitigation, including the notions that adaptation may be unsuitable for natural systems, and mitigation should necessarily have primacy over adaptation.

Barriers to the adoption of proactive environmental strategies

This study contributes to the knowledge of the difficulties or barriers found by firms when adopting proactive environmental strategies, providing empirical evidence from 240 Spanish industrial firms. A set of 25 barriers are initially evaluated by the managers of the sample firms and are grouped into four types of difficulties facing firms: external barriers, endemic limitations of the firm, limited environmental motivation and limited preparation of employees and operational inertia. The estimation of a structural equation model leads us to conclude that only the barriers identified as endemic limitations of the firm can be characterized as “effective barriers”, defined as problems preventing firms from progressing toward proactive environmental behavior.     

A2/O工艺中的反硝化除磷

A2/O工艺是一种最简单的同步脱氮除磷工艺,但由于其系统中固有的基质竞争和污泥龄等矛盾,在实际应用中特别是处理低C/N比污水时脱氮除磷效率较低.反硝化除磷工艺作为近年来颇受关注的污水生物处理新技术.由于在脱氮除磷过程中可以在碳源利用上耦合,可从一定程度上缓解A2/O工艺中的基质竞争矛盾,使得其在处理低C/N比污水时也能实现较高的脱氮除磷效率.就反硝化除磷的技术原理,结合其在A2/O工艺中的最新研究成果及其控制策略,对A2/O工艺中的反硝化除磷的实现、维持及影响因素进行了分析和探讨,并对其发展方向进行了展望.     

Environmental health in the complex city: a co-evolutionary approach

While public health and urban planning were closely linked in the past, today both domains are institutionally separate. In most cases, health intersects with spatial planning processes only through obligatory evaluations, such as environmental impact assessments, or restrictive environmental legislation. This institutionalisation of health criteria in most western countries has difficulty in dealing with recent environmental health challenges, leading to continual distrust and conflict between citizens and the government. This impasse has recently been discussed by academics who acknowledge the complexity of both city and health issues. It seems, however, that the full extent of the issue has not been covered yet, leading to recommendations and frameworks that are useful but fixed and retrospective. This paper moves beyond those fixed frameworks to develop a better understanding of the complexity of the current disconnect and explores ideas for a future planning approach, grounded on new ideas of co-evolutionary and adaptive planning.     

Coalition of injustice? Bodies,business, and the biosphere in struggles against unwanted land uses

Scholars of environmental injustice have pushed to see beyond the spatial distribution of environmental harms in studies of unwanted land uses. Building upon this work, this article examines how the complex geographies of environmental injustice play out in a coalition to prevent the construction of a coal-fired power plant in Surry County, Virginia. While spatially dispersed coalitions of negatively affected actors can strengthen efforts to prevent the construction of an unwanted land use, they can also perpetuate the environmental injustices surrounding it. To make this argument, particular attention is paid to the diverse reasons and ways differentially situated actors oppose an unwanted land use. It is demonstrated how the disparate concerns and differential tactics deployed by actors in coalitions against unwanted land uses are often embedded in and potentially contribute to longer histories of social injustice.     

Enhanced science–stakeholder communication to improve ecosystem model performances for climate change impact assessments

In recent years, climate impact assessments of relevance to the agricultural and forestry sectors have received considerable attention. Current ecosystem models commonly capture the effect of a warmer climate on biomass production, but they rarely sufficiently capture potential losses caused by pests, pathogens and extreme weather events. In addition, alternative management regimes may not be integrated in the models. A way to improve the quality of climate impact assessments is to increase the science–stakeholder collaboration, and in a two-way dialog link empirical experience and impact modelling with policy and strategies for sustainable management. In this paper we give a brief overview of different ecosystem modelling methods, discuss how to include ecological and management aspects, and highlight the importance of science–stakeholder communication. By this, we hope to stimulate a discussion among the science–stakeholder communities on how to quantify the potential for climate change adaptation by improving the realism in the models.     

Forecasting China’s primary energy demand based on an improved AI model

An improved energy demand forecasting model is built based on the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach and an adaptive genetic algorithm (AGA) to obtain credible energy demand forecasting results. The ARDL bounds analysis is first employed to select the appropriate input variables of the energy demand model. After the existence of a cointegration relationship in the model is confirmed, the AGA is then employed to optimize the coefficients of both linear and quadratic forms with gross domestic product, economic structure, urbanization, and technological progress as the input variables. On the basis of historical annual data from 1985 to 2015, the simulation results indicate that the proposed model has greater accuracy and reliability than conventional optimization methods. The predicted results of the proposed model also demonstrate that China will demand approximately 4.9, 5.6, and 6.1 billion standard tons of coal equivalent in 2020, 2025, and 2030, respectively.     

罗布泊野骆驼国家级自然保护区野骆驼的栖息环境及适应特征

野骆驼是世界上骆驼科真驼属唯存的野生种,目前全世界只分布在我国新疆和蒙古国的中蒙边境地区,在世界上仅存730~880头左右,是比大熊猫更为珍稀的野生动物,濒临灭绝。野骆驼的生存环境非常恶劣,气候十分干旱,荒漠化十分严重,蒸发量远远大于降雨量,空气非常干燥,日夜温差极大。分布区的植物也非常稀少,没有淡水,只有零星散布的又苦又咸的盐泉,大部分地区寸草不生,只有在盐泉附近长着稀稀拉拉的盐生草、沙拐枣、骆驼刺等。野骆驼能在严酷的荒漠半荒漠地区生活,对恶劣气候环境有很强的适应性,具有耐饥渴抗风暴等抵抗恶劣环境的能力,是动物界中任何一种动物无可比拟的。     

Ammonia emissions from livestock industries in Canada: Feasibility of abatement strategies

An updated national ammonia (NH₃) emissions inventory was employed to study the relationship between NH₃ emissions and livestock industries in Canada. Emissions from animal agriculture accounted for 322 kilotonnes (kt) or 64% of Canadian NH₃ emissions in 2002. Cattle and swine accounted for the bulk of livestock emissions. The provinces of Alberta, Ontario, Quebec, and Saskatchewan accounted for 28.1%, 22.0%, 18.7%, and 13.1% of total livestock emissions, respectively. Emissions from Ontario and Quebec were attributed to the intensive production of dairy, hogs and poultry. Dairy cattle emissions per hectolitre of milk were higher in Ontario and Québec than in other provinces, while swine emissions per livestock unit were higher than either beef or dairy cattle. A review of the abatement literature indicated diet manipulation to improve N efficiency and land spreading methods are very effective techniques to lower NH₃ emissions. Future research is required to evaluate the feasibility of biofilters and feces/urine separation methods.