Goals and remedial strategies for water quality and wildlife management in a coastal lagoon--a case-study of Ringkøbing Fjord, Denmark

The aim of this work is (1) to discuss approaches and tools to set management goals using operational indicators for coastal management (i.e., indicators that are easy to measure, understand and predict) and validated predictive models and (2) to discuss remedial strategies for sustainable coastal management regarding water quality and the abundance of fish, waterfowl and large aquatic plants. These approaches are exemplified using data from Ringkøbing Fjord, Denmark, which has undergone two major regime shifts during the last decades. This work discusses the changes taken place during the period from 1980 to 2004 (when there are good empirical data). For Ringkøbing Fjord, which is a very shallow, well-oxygenated lagoon dominated by resuspension processes, we have targeted on the following operational indicators, which are meant to reflect seasonal median values for the entire defined coastal area (the ecosystem scale) and not conditions at individual sites or data from shorter time periods: Secchi depth (as a standard measure of water clarity) and chlorophyll-a concentrations (as a key measure of algal biomass). The operational indicators are regulated by a set of standard abiotic factors, such as salinity, suspended particulate matter (SPM), nutrient concentrations (N and P), coastal morphometry and water exchange. Such relationships are quantified using well-tested, general quantitative models, which illustrate how these indicators are interrelated and how they reflect fundamental aspects of coastal ecosystems. We demonstrate that the regime shift in the lagoon can be modelled and quantitatively explained and is related to changes in salinity and nutrient inflow. A very important threshold is linked to increased salinities in the lagoon. For example, when the mean annual salinity is higher than about 9.5‰, large numbers of saltwater species of clams can survive and influence the structure and function of the ecosystem in profound ways. The model also illustrates the dynamic response to changes in nutrient loading. We have presented several management strategies with the goal of keeping the Secchi depth at 2 m, which would stimulate the growth of higher aquatic plants, which are fundamental for fish production and bird abundance in the lagoon. Given the fact that the Secchi depth depends on many variable factors (temperature, TP-inflow from land, salinity, changes in biomasses of macrophytes and clams, which are accounted for in these simulations), our results indicate that in practice it will likely be very difficult to reach that goal. However, it would be realistic to maintain a Secchi depth of 1.5 m if the variability in salinity is minimized and the mean salinity is kept at about 10.2‰.     

A2/O工艺中的反硝化除磷

A2/O工艺是一种最简单的同步脱氮除磷工艺,但由于其系统中固有的基质竞争和污泥龄等矛盾,在实际应用中特别是处理低C/N比污水时脱氮除磷效率较低.反硝化除磷工艺作为近年来颇受关注的污水生物处理新技术.由于在脱氮除磷过程中可以在碳源利用上耦合,可从一定程度上缓解A2/O工艺中的基质竞争矛盾,使得其在处理低C/N比污水时也能实现较高的脱氮除磷效率.就反硝化除磷的技术原理,结合其在A2/O工艺中的最新研究成果及其控制策略,对A2/O工艺中的反硝化除磷的实现、维持及影响因素进行了分析和探讨,并对其发展方向进行了展望.     

Forecasting China’s primary energy demand based on an improved AI model

An improved energy demand forecasting model is built based on the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach and an adaptive genetic algorithm (AGA) to obtain credible energy demand forecasting results. The ARDL bounds analysis is first employed to select the appropriate input variables of the energy demand model. After the existence of a cointegration relationship in the model is confirmed, the AGA is then employed to optimize the coefficients of both linear and quadratic forms with gross domestic product, economic structure, urbanization, and technological progress as the input variables. On the basis of historical annual data from 1985 to 2015, the simulation results indicate that the proposed model has greater accuracy and reliability than conventional optimization methods. The predicted results of the proposed model also demonstrate that China will demand approximately 4.9, 5.6, and 6.1 billion standard tons of coal equivalent in 2020, 2025, and 2030, respectively.     

Enhanced science–stakeholder communication to improve ecosystem model performances for climate change impact assessments

In recent years, climate impact assessments of relevance to the agricultural and forestry sectors have received considerable attention. Current ecosystem models commonly capture the effect of a warmer climate on biomass production, but they rarely sufficiently capture potential losses caused by pests, pathogens and extreme weather events. In addition, alternative management regimes may not be integrated in the models. A way to improve the quality of climate impact assessments is to increase the science–stakeholder collaboration, and in a two-way dialog link empirical experience and impact modelling with policy and strategies for sustainable management. In this paper we give a brief overview of different ecosystem modelling methods, discuss how to include ecological and management aspects, and highlight the importance of science–stakeholder communication. By this, we hope to stimulate a discussion among the science–stakeholder communities on how to quantify the potential for climate change adaptation by improving the realism in the models.     

Ammonia emissions from livestock industries in Canada: Feasibility of abatement strategies

An updated national ammonia (NH₃) emissions inventory was employed to study the relationship between NH₃ emissions and livestock industries in Canada. Emissions from animal agriculture accounted for 322 kilotonnes (kt) or 64% of Canadian NH₃ emissions in 2002. Cattle and swine accounted for the bulk of livestock emissions. The provinces of Alberta, Ontario, Quebec, and Saskatchewan accounted for 28.1%, 22.0%, 18.7%, and 13.1% of total livestock emissions, respectively. Emissions from Ontario and Quebec were attributed to the intensive production of dairy, hogs and poultry. Dairy cattle emissions per hectolitre of milk were higher in Ontario and Québec than in other provinces, while swine emissions per livestock unit were higher than either beef or dairy cattle. A review of the abatement literature indicated diet manipulation to improve N efficiency and land spreading methods are very effective techniques to lower NH₃ emissions. Future research is required to evaluate the feasibility of biofilters and feces/urine separation methods.     

罗布泊野骆驼国家级自然保护区野骆驼的栖息环境及适应特征

野骆驼是世界上骆驼科真驼属唯存的野生种,目前全世界只分布在我国新疆和蒙古国的中蒙边境地区,在世界上仅存730~880头左右,是比大熊猫更为珍稀的野生动物,濒临灭绝。野骆驼的生存环境非常恶劣,气候十分干旱,荒漠化十分严重,蒸发量远远大于降雨量,空气非常干燥,日夜温差极大。分布区的植物也非常稀少,没有淡水,只有零星散布的又苦又咸的盐泉,大部分地区寸草不生,只有在盐泉附近长着稀稀拉拉的盐生草、沙拐枣、骆驼刺等。野骆驼能在严酷的荒漠半荒漠地区生活,对恶劣气候环境有很强的适应性,具有耐饥渴抗风暴等抵抗恶劣环境的能力,是动物界中任何一种动物无可比拟的。     

Acetylcholinesterase activity in the terrestrial snail Xeropicta derbentina transplanted in apple orchards with different pesticide management strategies

Apple orchards are highly manipulated crops in which large amounts of pesticides are used. Some of these pesticides lack target specificity and can cause adverse effects in non-target organisms. In order to evaluate the environmental risk of these products, the use of transplanted sentinel organisms avoids side-effects from past events and facilitate comparison of multiple sites in a short time. We released specimens of the terrestrial snail Xeropicta derbentina in each 5 of two kinds of apple orchards with either conventional or organic management strategies plus in a single abandoned orchard. After one month, individuals were retrieved in order to measure acetylcholinesterase (AChE) activity. Mean values of AChE activity were significantly reduced in all conventional apple orchards compared to the others. Results show that the measurement of biomarkers such as AChE inhibition in transplated X. derbentina could be useful in the environmental risk assessment of post-authorized pesticides.     

基于适应性管理的水污染控制体系构建——以太湖流域为例

从规划内容与目标、规划方法及方案实施和评估3方面对太湖近20年水污染物控制历程进行综合分析,认为太湖水污染物控制正处面源污染、生活污染及新型污染问题凸显且更难处理,更为广泛的利益相关者和科研队伍积极参与的转型期.这种变化将导致污染治理面临更难应付的动态性和复杂性,使得当前以环境容量为总量为指导通过自上而下分配排污量和削减量的控制方案面临极大挑战.结合太湖水污染现状,通过与现行治理方法在管理假设、适合对象、协调管理手段、管理目标、规划方法、公众参与程度以及规划的优劣势等方面的比较发现,适应性管理可以积极有效应对由于环境趋势和管理协调对象变化所带来的系统不确定性和复杂性,将是一个积极有效的补充方法.同时,本文基于适应性管理提出了太湖水环境污染物排放控制体系的构建框架,突出适应性管理平台、科学研究及公众与基层单位参与在污染物控制中的重要作用.     

中国低碳经济的挑战与应对策略

在气候问题倍受关注的背景下,低碳经济模式越来越受到国际社会的关注。如今低碳成为了新的经济增长点,低碳的全球博弈对于高速发展的中国既是机遇,更是挑战。立足国情分析我国低碳发展面临的挑战、提出应对策略是当务之急。