有限单元法及其在河流污染计算中的应用

介绍了应用有限单元法预测计算河道较平直，水流稳定河流中污染物浓度分布的二维平面数学模型，该模型具有应用方便，计算迅捷等优点，计算中无须先知道排放口污染物掺混浓度，能直观地反映有多个排放口的河流中的污染物浓度分布的情况。     

应用曝气生物滤池深度处理垃圾渗沥液

北京市某垃圾填埋场渗沥液经二级处理后，其出水中COD、NH4^＋-N、SS和色度等主要污染物质仍不能达标排放。采用升流式曝气生物滤池（UBAF）对垃圾渗沥液进行深度处理后，COD、NH4^＋-N、SS和色度的去除率可分别达到70％、85％、87％～94％和80％，其出水水质可达标排放。     

印染废水生物活性炭深度处理后的回用研究

介绍了将印染废水经生物活性炭深度处理后回用于印染小试实验中，进行布面质量比较，主要针对回用水质对前后工序的影响、染色深度对布面质量的影响、不同水质的影响、染色种类的影响等，并提出印染废水深度处理后的回用途径以及技术改进措施。     

福州市生活垃圾产量及物理成分预测

城市生活垃圾一直是城市环境保护中的棘手问题。对垃圾产量及成分的预测,可为垃圾治理系统的规划和设计提供科学依据。文章以福州市为例,着重考虑影响垃圾质和量的内在因素和社会因素,探讨城市生活垃圾产量及成分的预测。通过关联度分析主要的内在影响因素,进而建立灰色模型GM(1,n)对垃圾产量进行预测,再考虑以社会因素为主的外部影响因素,对预测结果进行调整;对垃圾的物理成分的预测,则基于GM(1,1)预测结果,采用与其他国家或地区(城市)类比法,得出本区域的预测结果。     

时空效应下不同孔径超前钻孔有效排放半径研究*

为解决煤矿在施工过程中局部防突问题,进行现场实测并结合数值模拟计算,研究瓦斯排放钻孔影响半径在不同排放时间和不同超前钻孔直径影响下的变化规律。研究结果表明:对于同一孔径的钻孔,在一定时间内影响半径随着时间的增加而增加,不同直径的钻孔呈不同的函数关系;对于不同的孔径,影响半径随着钻孔直径的增加而增加,研究结果可为矿井作业中治理煤与瓦斯局部突出提供重要参考。     

Experimental study on unconfined methane explosion: Explosion characteristics and overpressure prediction method

Explosion accidents have become the main threat for the high-efficiency use of cleaner gas energy sources, such as natural gas. During an explosion, obstacle causing flame acceleration is the main reason for the increase of the explosion overpressure, which still remains to be fully understood. In this research, field experiments were conducted in a 1 m³ cubic frame apparatus to investigate the effect of built-in obstacles on unconfined methane explosion. Cage-like obstacles were constructed using square steel rods with different cross section size. The results demonstrated that the flame could get accelerated due to the hydrodynamic instability and obstacle-induced turbulence, which enhanced the explosion overpressure. In the near field, the overpressure wave travelled slower and the maximum overpressure could almost keep constant. Reducing the cross section size, or increasing the obstacle height or the obstacle number per layer could determine the rise of the maximum overpressure, the maximum pressure rising rate and the overpressure impulse. For uniformly constructed obstacles, self-similar theory was chosen to measure the influence of the hydrodynamic instability, and a parameter β was adopted to measure the flame acceleration caused by obstacle-induced turbulence, the value of which was 2 in this research. Based on the acoustic theory, an overpressure prediction model was proposed and the predicted results agreed with the measured values better than previous models, such as TNT equivalency model and TNO multi-energy model.     

Safety evaluation of leak in a storage tank using fault tree analysis and risk matrix analysis

The work presented in this paper used a quantitative analysis of relevant risks through the development of fault tree analysis and risk analysis methods to aid real time risk prediction and safety evaluation of leak in a storage tank. Criticality of risk elements and their attributes can be used with real time data to predict potential failures likely to occur. As an example, a risk matrix was used to rank risk of events that could lead to a leak in a storage tank and to make decisions on risks to be allowed based on past statistical data. An intelligent system that recognizes increasing level(s) and draws awareness to the possibility of additional increase before unsafe levels are attained was used to analyse and make critical decisions. After a visual depiction of relationships between hazards and controls had been actualized, dynamic risk modelling was used to quantify the effect controls can potentially have on hazards by applying historical and real-time data into a probabilistic model. The output of a dynamic risk model is near real-time quantitative predictions of risk likelihood. Results from the risk matrix analysis method mixed with RTD and FTA were analyzed, evaluated, and compared.     

Effective method of predicting confined pressure behavior under isotropic turbulence

Explosion pressure prediction is indispensable to ensure process safety against accidental gas explosions. This work is aimed at establishing a theoretical method for predicting confined methane-air explosion pressure under isotropic turbulence. The results indicated that the pressure rise rate becomes significantly increased by the existence of isotropic turbulence, which effect on peak value of explosion pressure is negligible. Among various models of turbulent burning velocity, the calculated pressure rise rate using Chiu model, Williams model and Liu model is relatively closer to experimental value. With the increase of turbulent integral length and RMS turbulent fluctuation velocity, the pressure rise rate becomes increased continuously. The influence of adiabatic compression and isothermal compression on pressure rise rate could be ignored. To predict explosion pressure in a more accurate way, the dynamic variation of turbulent integral length and RMS turbulent fluctuation velocity should be considered in the future.     

基于等维新息灰色马尔科夫的地铁客流量预测*

为准确预测地铁客流量的发展趋势,采用等维新息灰色GM（1,1）预测模型与马尔科夫模型相结合的方式建立等维新息灰色马尔科夫模型,探讨等维新息灰色马尔科夫模型在地铁客流量预测领域的应用;运用平均相对误差、后验差比值和小误差概率3种指标对模型精度进行检验。结果表明:等维新息灰色马尔科夫模型与原始数列的拟合程度较高,预测精度等级为Ⅰ级（优）,优于传统灰色GM(1,1)模型和等维新息灰色GM(1,1)模型的预测精度,更加符合地铁客流的实际情况。     

库岸涉水滑坡危险性现状分析与预测评价

为合理评价库岸涉水滑坡危险性,基于层次分析法与模糊理论,构建滑坡危险性现状评价模型,并利用优化支持向量机构建滑坡变形预测模型,通过对比分析实现滑坡危险性综合判断。结果表明:大柿树滑坡危险性现状为69.78分,风险等级为Ⅲ级,属高度危险;通过危险性预测评价,滑坡变形呈持续增加趋势,将趋于不利方向发展;综合滑坡危险性现状分析与预测评价结果可知,滑坡危险性相对较大。研究结果可为滑坡灾害防治提供一定理论依据。