水深梯度对荆三棱(Scirpus yagara)生长的影响

研究湿地植物对水深梯度的响应对于湿地修复具有重要的指导意义.在南四湖湖边滩地上的人工修复湿地中开展水深梯度对荆三棱(Scirpus yagara)生长的影响研究,试验观测水深分别为-10、0、10、20、30 cm共5个梯度.结果显示:随着水位的升高,1)荆三棱的株高、基茎、叶长和叶宽均有所增加,当水位大于10 cm时各项指标增加更为显著;2)生物量呈增加趋势,而根茎比则逐渐减小,水位为30 cm时的生物量和根茎比分别为-10 cm时的2.67倍和58.15%;3)叶绿素含量总体呈增加趋势,但在不同水位间的差异不明显(P>0.05);4)叶绿素荧光方面,最大光化学量子产量Fv/Fm均在0.75以上,光化学淬灭qP和非光化学淬灭qN分别呈现出升高和下降的趋势.结果表明,在试验所设置的水位条件下(-10～30 cm),荆三棱的生长没有受到水深梯度增加的显著影响,相反表现出随着水深的增加而生长更好的趋势.可见,在试验设置的水深梯度范围内,相对较高的水位有利于荆三棱的生长,因此在湿地管理中应控制适当的高水位以利于其种群的生长和稳定.     

Random parameter models for accident prediction on two-lane undivided highways in India

Introduction

Generalized linear modeling (GLM), with the assumption of Poisson or negative binomial error structure, has been widely employed in road accident modeling. A number of explanatory variables related to traffic, road geometry, and environment that contribute to accident occurrence have been identified and accident prediction models have been proposed. The accident prediction models reported in literature largely employ the fixed parameter modeling approach, where the magnitude of influence of an explanatory variable is considered to be fixed for any observation in the population. Similar models have been proposed for Indian highways too, which include additional variables representing traffic composition. The mixed traffic on Indian highways comes with a lot of variability within, ranging from difference in vehicle types to variability in driver behavior. This could result in variability in the effect of explanatory variables on accidents across locations. Random parameter models, which can capture some of such variability, are expected to be more appropriate for the Indian situation.

Method

The present study is an attempt to employ random parameter modeling for accident prediction on two-lane undivided rural highways in India. Three years of accident history, from nearly 200 km of highway segments, is used to calibrate and validate the models.

Results

The results of the analysis suggest that the model coefficients for traffic volume, proportion of cars, motorized two-wheelers and trucks in traffic, and driveway density and horizontal and vertical curvatures are randomly distributed across locations.

Conclusions

The paper is concluded with a discussion on modeling results and the limitations of the present study.     

低渗透介质中轻非水相流体迁移转化规律

本文利用COMSOL软件建立轻非水相流体（LNAPL）纵向迁移转化模型,采用有限单元法进行求解,预测污染物分布规律,并利用局部分析法进行参数敏感性分析.结果表明,大部分LNAPL会在水面以上聚集形成高的质量分布峰值区域,少部分克服毛细压力向下迁移,在自由相迁移范围内,其溶解相浓度达到或接近饱和溶解度;当顶部污染源消失后,降水会使最大饱和度和浓度出现的深度逐渐下移;多孔介质中的低渗透镜体会使污染物垂向入渗受阻,在其表面聚积形成污染池;渗透系数是控制LNAPL纵向迁移速度及饱和度分布的关键参数.     

驾驶人危险感知能力影响因素及干预方式综述

为探究外部干预对驾驶人危险感知能力的作用效果,梳理不同理论描述驾驶人危险感知过程,并总结驾驶人危险感知行为机制;然后,从危险感知行为要素出发,分析驾驶风格、驾驶经验、交通环境、驾驶状态对危险感知能力的影响;其次,介绍5种危险感知能力干预方式的研究成果,归纳各方式特点;最后,从干预效果持续性、评价指标、迁移效应等方面总结...     

地铁隧道排烟口无量纲结构参数与局部阻力研究*

针对现有行业规范中的排烟口结构参数尚不明确的问题,依托过海瓦贵区间隧道,搭建隧道通风排烟模型实验系统。设定11种排烟口面积工况,结合实验与数值模拟,得到排烟口上、下游的静压值和风速。引入动能修正系数,推导出基于上下游能量差的排烟口局部阻力表达式,绘制出无量纲面积比与局部阻力系数曲线族。研究结果表明:排烟口长宽比值较大时,不利于排烟口下方风流流动;在同一风机组合工况下,当排烟口面积缩小时,局部阻力系数会呈现出先减后增的趋势;提出排烟口最优结构长宽比为1.06。研究结果可为相关规范制定提供参考,并为防灾救灾提供理论支持。     

基于遥感的巢湖悬浮泥沙分布的环境背景分析

悬浮泥沙是重要的水质参数之一,对水体透明度、浑浊度、水色等光学性质及水生生态条件产生直接影响,水体的含沙量及其动态变化对区域水下地貌的发展及冲淤变化等具有非常重要的影响. 以巢湖为例,通过对不同含沙量的水体进行光谱特征分析,提出了用泥沙指数来提取泥沙分布的方法. 利用ETM+(TM)数据得到了巢湖湖区2个时相的泥沙分布图,并对巢湖悬浮泥沙分布的环境背景进行分析,指出巢湖泥沙的来源主要是各入湖河流携带的泥沙,其次是岸坡崩塌物形成的.      

江苏省农户秸秆还田的影响因素分析

农户秸秆还田不仅有利于土壤有机质的增加,实现耕地的可持续利用,而且在发挥我国农田土壤固碳潜力,积极应对气候变化方面具有重要意义.文章以江苏省农户调查数据为基础,建立Logistic模型,对影响农户秸秆还田的因素进行分析,以期为制定促进农户秸秆还田的政策提供科学依据.结果表明,不同地区农户对于秸秆还田的决策存在差异:在较为发达地区,秸秆还田与否,农户更多的是从秸秆处理的边际成本出发;而略欠发达地区,则主要是基于秸秆的利用效益.此外,技术因素也影响农户秸秆还田的行为决策.在制定促进秸秆还田技术应用的激励政策时,要充分考虑地区农业生产以及农户生产经营的基本特征及差异,因地制宜,有效地促进秸秆还田在各地区最大限度地被应用和推广.     

Multiple-pattern parameter identification and uncertainty analysis approach for water quality modeling

This paper presents a multiple-pattern parameter identification and uncertainty analysis approach for robust water quality modeling using a neural network (NN) embedded genetic algorithm (GA). The modeling approach uses an adaptive NN–GA framework to inversely solve the governing equations in a water quality model for multiple parameter patterns, along with an alternating fitness method to maintain solution diversity. The procedure was demonstrated through a coupled 2D hydrodynamic and eutrophication model for Loch Raven Reservoir in Maryland. The inverse problem was formulated as a nonlinear optimization problem minimizing the degree of misfit (DOM) between model results and observed data. A set of NN models was developed to approximate the input-output response relationship of the Loch Raven Reservoir model and was incorporated into a GA framework in an adaptive fashion to search for near-optimal solutions minimizing the DOM. The numerical example showed that the adaptive NN–GA approach is capable of identifying multiple parameter patterns that reproduce the observed data equally well. The resulting parameter patterns were incorporated into the numerical model, and a multiple-pattern robust water quality modeling analysis, along with a compound margin of safety (CMOS) method, was proposed and applied to analyze the parameter pattern uncertainty.     

波尔多液对土壤过氧化氢酶活性与构象的影响

为初步探讨波尔多液对土壤过氧化氢酶的作用机理及变化规律,采用人工模拟和荧光光谱法研究了波尔多液对土壤过氧化氢酶活性特征及构象的影响.结果表明:1)不同浓度波尔多液对土壤过氧化氢酶活性总体呈现低浓度激活、高浓度抑制作用.不同配制方式波尔多液对土壤过氧化氢酶活性抑制效应顺序为多倍量式>倍量式>半量式>等量式.浓度为200mg·kg-1左右的等量式波尔多液处理对土壤过氧化氢酶活性的影响最小.2)24h培养时间下,随波尔多液浓度的增加,酶促反应米氏常数Km和最大反应速率Vmax均呈先减小后增大趋势.统计分析表明,Km和Vmax均与波尔多液浓度呈显著正相关(p<0.01),土壤过氧化氢酶Km值可表征波尔多液对土壤过氧化氢酶活性的影响程度,其作用机理为反竞争性抑制类型.3)波尔多液对离体过氧化氢酶的内源荧光有较强的猝灭作用,Cu(Ⅱ)和离体过氧化氢酶的结合常数K及结合位点数n分别为69.1831mol·L-1和0.6878.