PARAMETER ESTIMATION IN HYDROLOGY: THE STATE OF THE ART1

ABSTRACT A detailed review of current methods and criteria used in parameter estimation in hydrology is presented. The effect of errors in the data set and the effect of interactions between methods of analysis, criteria, data set errors, and modeling assumptions are reviewed and discussed briefly. It is concluded that study of techniques, criteria, data set errors and particularly interactions between these, is essential to further progress in hydrologic modeling.     

涡流检波器建模研究及参数识别

笔者分析了涡流检波器的工作原理 :综合考虑了检波器磁路系统中 ,外壳、磁靴等部件的电磁感应对固定线圈感应电流的影响 ;建立了七参数的动力学模型。理论分析表明 :涡流检波器的外壳系统的附加耦合效应 ,影响了检波器的频率特性。在上述分析和研究的基础上 ,设计了检波器参数识别实验系统 ;验证了七参数动力学模型的合理性 ;研究的结论为检波器结构设计中改善和控制其特性参数、提高其工作安全可靠性等 ,提供了理论依据。     

KALMAN FILTER ESTIMATION AND PREDICTION OF DAILY STREAM FLOWS: I. REVIEW,ALGORITHM, AND SIMULATION EXPERIMENTS1

An important class of models, frequently used in hydrology for the forecasting of hydrologic variables one or more time periods ahead, or for the generation of synthetic data sequences, is the class of autoregressive(AR) models. As the AR models belong to the family of linear stochastic difference equations, they have both a deterministic and a stochastic component. The stochastic component is often assumed to have a Gaussian distribution. It is well known that hydrologic observations (e.g., stream flows) are heavily affected by noise. To account explicitly for the observation noise, the linear stochastic difference equation is expressed in state variable form and an observation model is introduced. The discrete Kalman filter algorithm can then be used to obtain estimates of the state variable vector. Typically, in hydrologic systems, model parameters, system noise statistics and measurement noise statistics are unknown, and have to be estimated. In this study an adaptive algorithm is discussed which estimates these quantities simultaneously with the state variables. The performance of the algorithm is evaluated by using simulated data.     

Heterogeneous Traffic Induced Effects on Vertical Dispersion Parameter in the Near Field of Roadways - a Wind Tunnel Study

The varying traffic parameters such as traffic volume, speed, shape and size, and terrain roughness conditions play a vital role on dispersion of pollutants in the near field of roadways. Simulation experiments were carried out in the Environmental Wind Tunnel (EWT) to evaluate the traffic induced effects on vertical dispersion parameter (σ _z ) for heterogeneous traffic conditions in the near field of roadways for evaluating the effect of variations in traffic volume, terrain roughness condition and approaching wind direction. The model vehicle movement system was fabricated and made operational in the EWT, which allowed the variation in traffic volume, speed and wind road inclination. Sixty-six hydrocarbon tracer experiments were performed to evaluate σ _z in the near field of roadways for variable traffic volume, three terrain roughness conditions and two approaching wind directions (i.e., 90° and 60°). The values of σ _z for heterogeneous traffic conditions were found to be higher for low roughness conditions in comparison to other two higher roughness conditions for various traffic volumes and approaching wind directions. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

长乐—南澳变质带显微构造和岩组特征及应力场分析

通过光学显微镜和高压电子显微镜对带内的变形石英进行显微构造超微构造观测和估算变形参数(σ_1-σ_3=85.0MPa,ε_s=10~(-9)～10~(-10)/S),认为该区变质岩形成于深层环境,是长期缓慢变形的结果。变形石英位错构造为变形阶段和恢复阶段的混合体,其变形机制为塑性形变。采用石英光轴干涉图法,在偏光显微镜下对水平定向薄片进行岩组测量,绘制成该区的石英光轴方位图,探讨其构造变形的演化历史。首次划分出S(或S+S)和B+S构造岩岩组类型及Ⅰ型、Ⅳ型和Ⅴ型石英定向类型。应力场随着构造变形的演化作逆时针旋转。山南北挤压应力场逐渐变为单向推挤的应力场,从而认为构造变形是多期次的叠加。     

单一重现期非线性暴雨强度模型参数的确定--新型混合加速遗传算法的构建与应用

对浮点编码遗传算法进行了改进,并嵌入Powell方向加速局部搜索算法与加速循环操作,从而构建了新型混合加速遗传算法.确定单一重现期的非线性暴雨强度模型参数的应用实例表明,该方法兼顾了改进浮点编码遗传算法和Powell算法的优点,是一种既可以较大概率、快速地搜索全局近似最优解,又能进行局部细微搜索的出色的非线性优化方法.该法在其它工程问题的非线性模型参数的确定中也具有广阔的应用前景.     

渤海PL19-3油田设计地震动参数研究

渤海PL19-3油田按美国有关规范进行抗震设计,其抗震设防标准和地震动参数与我国有关技术规范相比均存在一定的差别。本文根据渤海及邻区的地震构造、地震活动环境的研究结果,以及工程场地的钻探资料、土动力参数测试结果,参照美国有关技术规范的方法,确定了PL19-3油田的设计地震动参数。研究成果不但能满足该工程的抗震设计需要,也可供渤海海域其他工程参考,尤其是所得到的场地土动力学参数具有其特殊性和代表性。本工作将促进海洋工程的抗震技术规范和设防标准的研究,同时,也为未来开展海域地震区划工作积累了基础资料和工作方法。     

国内外地震滑坡灾害研究综述

对地震灾害较严重的美国、意大利、希腊等国家在地震滑坡灾害方面所做的研究工作进行了总结,并与我国的研究成果进行了对比。给出了国内外对地震滑坡的分类，论述了地震滑坡在面积范围、密度及滑坡体积等方面与地震震级、地震烈度、震中距等参数之间的关系；对地震时易于触发滑坡的地貌坡度及地质构造等因素进行了分析。最后对国外地震滑坡灾害预测研究进行了概述。     

加速量热仪在物质热稳定性研究中的应用

加速量热仪（ARC）是一种基于绝热原理设计的热分析仪器,与其它热分析仪器相比,加速量热仪可以测量克量级的固体或高闪点液体样品,具有测试样品最大,敏感度高等特点,并能够实时记录样品放热反应过程中的温度和压力变化,以过氧化氢叔丁基为例说明加速量热仪测试结果在研究物质质变热稳定性方面的应用,得到了过氧化氢叔丁基放热分解反应的温度－时间和压力－时间关系曲线以及升温速度和压力随温度变化的曲线,通过计算和分析得到了反应系统升压速率随压力的变化曲线,计算出了过氧化氢叔丁基分解反应的动力学参数表观活化能Ea和指前因子A。     

气候环境试验设备温度参数数据处理方法的分析与探讨

不同的温度参数数据处理方法有不同的计算结果,本文针对检测与评定气候环境试验设备的技术性能中存在的问题,分析了三个标准(GB 11158-89、GB/T 5170.1-1995、JTM K 05-1991)的温度参数数据处理方法,比对了二组实际检测数据的计算结果,说明"绝对极值法"科学准确、简捷实用.