LINEAR PROGRAMS FOR NONLINEAR HYDROLOGIC ESTIMATION1

ABSTRACT: The minimization of the sum of absolute deviations and the minimization of the absolute maximum deviation (mini-max) were transformed into equivalent linear programs for the estimation of parameters in a transient and linear hydrologic system. It is demonstrated that these two methods yield viable parameter estimates that are globally optimal and reproduce properly the timing and magnitude of hydrologic events and associated variables such as total runoff. The two linear estimation methods compared favorably with the popular least-squares nonlinear estimation method. The generality of the theoretical developments shows that linear program equivalents are adequate competitors of nonlinear methods of hydrologic estimation and parameter calibration.     

Arrhenius燃烧模型对离散网络的限制

在火蔓延过程的数值模拟中，如果采用Arrhenius燃烧模型，对网格的划分有一定的限制条件。本文作者分别在层流工况和弱湍流工况下通过对油－沙池表面火蔓延过程的数值模拟研究，发现：如果采用Arrhenius燃烧模型，则不合适的网格划分会影响火焰的传播。通过对火焰传播机理的分析，提出一无量纲网格生成准则数π。如果网格划分的网格准则数π大于其临界准则数π0，则网格的划分不会影响火焰传播过程，即网格的划分是合适的，反之，若π＜π0，则所划分的网格就是不合适的，须重新生成网格。     

几种核素在土壤—生物—人体间的积累和转移

本文对Ｕ，Ｋ，＾１３７Ｃｓ，＾９０Ｓｒ等几种核素在土壤－水稻，土壤－茶叶，土壤－蔬菜之间以及水－鱼间的转移情况进行了研究；并考虑到这些核素含量较高的食品（如茶叶、黄豆）不直接全部食入人体，因此，根据人们的饮茶习惯及豆制品（水豆腐）的加工过程进行模拟，对其向人体转移的参数进行了实验研究。由上述实验结果给出了转移参数及相关方程。     

INTEGRATION OF A BASIN-SCALE WATER QUALITY MODEL WITH GIS1

ABSTRACT: Geographic Information Systems (GIS) have been successfully integrated with distributed parameter, single-event, water quality models such as AGNPS (AGricultural NonPoint Source) and ANSWERS (Areal Nonpoint Source Watershed Environmental Response Simulation). These linkages proved to be an effective way to collect, manipulate, visualize, and analyze the input and output date of water quality models. However, for continuous-time, basin large-scale water quality models, collecting and manipulating the input data are more time-consuming and cumbersome due to the method of disaggregation (subdivisions are based on topographic boundaries). SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool), a basin-scale water quality model, was integrated with a GIS to extract input data for modeling a basin. This paper discusses the detailed development of the integration of the SWAT water quality model with GRASS (Geographic Resources Analysis Support System) GIS, along with an application and advantages. The integrated system was applied to simulated a 114 sq. km upper portion of the Seco Creek Basin by subdividing it into 37 subbasins. The average monthly predicted streamflw is in agreement with measured monthly streamflw values.     

华北几次大震前弱震分布参数R(t)的异常变化

本文详细研究了1974年以来华北地区9次Ms≥5.0级大震前,小震时空分布参数R(t)的变化特征.结果表明:华北地区9次Ms≥5.0级大震前小震时空分布参数R(t)值均出现了先上升,然后下降直至主震发生的异常图象。根据R(t)值异常可能对未来发生的大震作出一定程度的预报.文中对R(t)值异常变化的机制进行了初步讨论.     

REGIONALIZATION OF LOW-FLOW FREQUENCY ESTIMATES: AN ALABAMA CASE STUI)Y1

ABSTRACT: Low-flow estimates, as determined by probabilistic modeling of observed data sequences, are commonly used to describe certain streamflow characteristics. Unfortunately, however, reliable low-flow estimates can be difficult to come by, particularly for gaging sites with short record lengths. The shortness of records leads to uncertainties not only in the selection of a distribution for modeling purposes but also in the estimates of the parameters of a chosen model. In flood frequency analysis, the common approach to mitigation of some of these problems is through the regionalization of frequency behavior. The same general approach is applied here to the case of low-flow estimation, with the general intent of not only improving low-flow estimates but also illustrating the gains that might be attained in so doing. Data used for this study is that which has been systematically observed at 128 streamflow gaging sites across the State of Alabama. Our conclusions are that the log Pearson Type 3 distribution is a suitable candidate for modeling of Alabama low-flows, and that the shape parameter of that distribution can be estimated on a regional basis. Low-flow estimates based on the regional estimator are compared with estimates based on the use of only at-site estimation techniques.     

Modeling a wetland system: The case of Keoladeo National Park (KNP), India

A model for the wetland part of KNP is presented and analyzed. Two-dimensional parameter scans suggest that this minimal model possesses dynamical complexities. Per capita availability of water to “bad” biomass (W₁) is one of the most vital parameters. One can ensure good health of the park by restricting the par capita availability of water to low values. Getting the “bad” biomass removed by granting permits to villagers should go hand in hand with water management and conservation activities. The model presented in this paper may be helpful in designing the timing and nature of human interventions in the form of implementation of well worked out policies in future.     

用总有机碳浓度表达活性污泥反应动力学的研究

本研究对废水活性污泥法处理中常用指标ＣＯＤ、ＢＯＤ５、ＭＬＶＳＳ与总有机磷指标的相关性进行了探讨。     

青海门源地区O3浓度水平及影响因子分析

为研究高原背景地区O_3的浓度水平,于2013年9月13日至2013年10月14日期间,在国家大气背景站青海门源站开展了为期32天的观测。观测结果显示,门源地区O_3小时浓度均值为115.0±22.6μg/m3,低于《环境空气质量标准》(GB3095-2012)中O_3小时平均浓度限值的一级标准(160μg/m3)。通过分析O_3和NOx实时浓度在一天24小时内随时间变化的特征序列,发现在多数观测天内O_3和NOx呈现此消彼长的变化规律,表明O_3主要来自有NOx参与的光化学反应;另有几天NOx和O_3的浓度出现同峰同谷的现象,推测这种变化主要是大气运动传输造成的。相关性分析表明,臭氧浓度与温度、湿度、风速、SO2、NOx以及CO的浓度都显著相关(P0.01);多元线性回归分析表明O_3与温度、湿度、气压、风速的关系近似符合Y=0.630T-0.192H-0.004P-0.091W+196.039,拟合结果与真值误差2.88%。综上分析,门源地区O_3浓度水平较低,但在高温低湿、风速较高、NOx浓度较低的情况下,O_3容易积累,O_3浓度主要受光化学反应和大气运动传输过程两个因素影响。     

影子价格─自然灾害经济评价中合理的价格

着重说明自然灾害经济评价中利用影子价格的原因，简要说明我国目前在投资项目评价中采用的影子价格及计算方法，以及在自然灾害经济评价中如何利用影子价格进行计算．