基于农户尺度的农业旱灾成灾风险评价与可持续发展

在对雨养和灌溉农业典型区农户问卷调查的基础上,提出了成灾风险的概念和评价思路,构建了农户尺度农业旱灾成灾风险的评价指标体系和模型;基于国家农村调查队的统计数据,对典型区农业旱灾成灾风险进行了评价,确定了人均纯收入2500和2750元,以及人均粮食产量200和800kg为几个影响农业旱灾成灾风险变化的临界值.最后,提出了雨养/灌溉农业典型区降低成灾风险的可持续发展策略,如波动的农牧业政策、提高自然降水利用率等.     

内蒙古自治区农牧业自然灾害特征分析

本文采用近50年的农牧业气象灾害数据资料和近15年的农牧业病虫害及灾情数据资料,结合实地调查,对内蒙古自治区主要农牧业自然灾害的发生特征和平均状况进行了分析.研究表明:近50年本区农业自然灾害有加重趋势;从年际来看,旱灾、病虫鼠害、风灾较稳定频发,水灾、冻灾、火灾年际变率大;旱灾、冻灾、火灾、风灾冬春多发;多种灾害链发等.在此基础上结合自然条件探究原因,提出了一些防灾减灾的建议.     

江西省近年来的农业自然灾害及其防治对策

本文在调查研究的基础上,依据大量的资料,对近年来江西省农业自然灾害发生的情况进行了分析,重点研究了干旱、洪涝等气象灾害以及农业生物灾害的特点、发生面积及其造成的损失,提出了对这些灾害的防治对策.     

农业利用有机废弃物的生态工程

本文运用生态工程将农业利用有机废弃的主要用途划分为作饲料，肥料，能源，培养料和多层次循环利用５种方式，论述了中国农业利用有机废弃物的历史，现状与水平，对农业利用作秸秆，畜禽粪便，沼气发酵余物和机的主要秣工程技术。     

PREDICTIVE ASSESSMENT OF SEVERITY OF AGRICULTURAL DROUGHTS BASED ON AGRO-CLIMATIC FACTORS1

ABSTRACT: Past historical evidence indicates that droughts have had great impacts on human life. Drought (or scarcity of water) is assessed based on two key factors, namely, the estimated water demand, and the expected water supply. The formulation of these key factors for a region largely depends on the agro-climatic and economic conditions. Consideration of one such key factor is the relationship between the crop yield and water deficit in the assessment and prediction of agricultural droughts. The varying nature of this relationship from crop to crop adds to the complexity of agricultural drought analysis. To overcome this difficulty in analyzing agricultural droughts of a region, it is adequate to consider and place emphasis on a single crop (i.e., an index crop) grown homogeneously over the major area of the region. From one year to another year, the pattern of water requirement during the growing season of an index crop is rather stationary, and the water supply in arid and semi-arid area is mainly from seasonal random precipitation. In a region, grain yield of the index crop and, in turn, assessment of the severity of drought can reasonably be predicted as a function of the time of crop sowing and the distribution of rainfall, provided that temporal and spatial effects of other contributing factors (crop variety, soil fertility status, crop disease, pest control, cultivation practices etc.) on grain yield are considered to be uniformly distributed (i.e., stable). A predictive method of assessing agricultural droughts in an arid area of western India is presented. The major crop (Pearl Millet) of this region is grown from. July through September. The formulation of the proposed predictive method inherently implies that the grain yield of the main crop is a reliable indicator of agricultural drought. In the development of this predictive relationship (i.e., a regression type model) a number of potential yet simple variables affecting the grain yield in the region were investigated. The soil moisture index, although generally considered significant compared to the simple variables, has been found to account for insignificant variation in the grain yield. Results of our investigations suggest that it would be advisable to exclude the soil moisture index variable from the model. The proposed regression model can be used in the prediction of grain yield of the main crop several months ahead of crop harvesting operations and, in turn, the assessment of agricultural drought severity as mild, moderate, or severe. Such an assessment is expected to be helpful to planners for arranging appropriate measures to effectively combat agricultural drought situations.     

DRAINAGE GENERATION AND WATER USE IN THE EVERGLADES AGRICULTURAL AREA BASIN1

ABSTRACT: The Everglades Agricultural Area (EAA) covers 2,850 km² in area and is characterized by high water table and organic soil. The area is actively irrigated and drained as a function of weather conditions and crop status. Anthropogenic activities in the basin have resulted in nutrient-enriched drainage water that is discharged to Lake Okeechobee and the Everglades ecosystem. Water quantity and quality issues of the basin have become of increasing interest at local, state, and federal levels, so legislative and regulatory measures have been taken to improve water quality in discharges from the basin. In this study, simulation of hydrologic conditions and soil moisture were conducted using 100 years of daily synthetic rainfall data. From the simulations, the statistical distribution of half-month drainage discharge and supplemental water use in the basin was developed. The mean annual drainage/runoff was 49 cm, the mean supplemental water was 30 cm, and the mean annual a real rainfall was 122 cm. On the average, drainage exceeded supplemental water use in the months of June to September while from December to March drainage and supplemental water use were equivalent. Supplemental water use exceeded drainage in the months of October, November, April, and May. High drainage occurred in June and September; smallest drainage was in February. On the average, the highest supplemental water use occurred in May and November. The 10-year return period of annual drainage during wet and dry cycles were 60 cm and 38 cm per year, respectively. The semi-monthly drainage coefficient of variation (cv) is above 100 percent for the period from the second half of October to end of April. The cv is lower than 100 percent for the remaining season (wet season). The purpose of this paper is to present the magnitude, temporal, and frequency distribution of drainage runoff generation and supplemental water use in the EAA basin. Information on statistics of drainage will contribute to the optimization of the design and operation of drainage water treatment systems.     

湖北省钟祥市农业基地建设研究

本文在研究钟祥市农业自然资源的基础上，分析了该市农业基地建设的条件、措施．以及其产生的社会和经济效益．     

SIMULATION OF SEDIMENT AND PLANT NUTRIENT LOSSES BY THE CREAMS WATER QUALITY MODEL1

ABSTRACT: CREAMS was applied to a field-sized watershed planted to cotton in the Limestone Valley region of northern Alabama. The field was cultivated for three years with conventional tillage (CvT) followed by three years of conservation tillage (CsT). CREAMS is composed of three components: hydrology, erosion, and chemistry. Surface runoff and losses of sediment, N and P were simulated and results were compared with the observed data from the watershed. Curve numbers recommended in the CREAMS user's guide were not adequate for the watershed conditions. The hydrology submodel improved runoff simulation from CvT and CsT when field-data based curve numbers were used. The erosion submodel demonstrated that CsT reduced sediment loss more than CvT, even though CsT had higher runoff than CvT. The nutrient submodel based on the simulated runoff and sediment underpredicted N loss for both CvT and CsT. This submodel, however, accurately predicted P loss for CvT, but underpredicted for CsT (50 percent lower than the observed). The results of CREAMS simulation generally matched the observed order of magnitude for higher runoff, lower sediment, and higher N and P losses from CsT than from CvT.     

Agricultural practices,ecology, and ethics in the third world

The increasing demand for horticultural products for nutritional and economic purposes by lesser developed countries (LDC's) is well-documented. Technological demands of the LDC's producing horticultural products is also increasing. Pesticide use is an integral component of most agricultural production, yet chemicals are often supplied without supplemental information vital for their safe and efficient implementation. Illiteracy rates in developing countries are high, making pesticide education even more challenging. For women, who perform a significant share of agricultural tasks, illiteracy rates are even higher than for men. The dilemma exists of how a developing country can improve its nutritional and economic situation without giving consideration to social and environmental consequences.     

THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF AGRICULTURE,GROUND WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT,AND AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH1

ABSTRACT: The growing problem of nonpoint source ground water contamination from agricultural chemicals is conceptualized as an historical outcome of the production environment of capitalist agriculture in the Corn Belt. Chronic overproduction and ground water contamination reveal different aspects of the same technological treadmill. The debate over Iowa's 1987 Ground Water Protection Act symbolizes the contradiction between popular demand for clean water and structural limits on policymaking. Although the Act does provide for expanded research, education, and monitoring, a coalition of commercial farmers, local chemical dealers, and the national chemical industry defeated a tax on pesticide use. Analysis of alternate policy responses - Best Management Practices (BMPs), cross compliance, site-specific regulation of chemical use, and taxation of synthetic chemicals - reveals that all tend to founder on the same structural constraints. Without practical, profitable, low-input technologies that farmers, over time, would choose to adopt, both voluntary and regulatory approaches encounter major political or implementation difficulties. The public agricultural research agenda, therefore, emerges as a central control variable for ground water quality management and a central focus for political struggle.