中国燃煤电厂碳排放量计算及分析

人类活动造成的温室气体排放已经对自然生态造成了巨大的影响。如果无法有效解决气候变化问题,到2030年将有超过1亿人因此而失去生命,且全球经济增长将削减3.2%。有效地控制和减少温室气体的排放是人类急需解决的问题。目前中国温室气体排放总量已经超越美国成为全球第一大温室气体排放国,中国的能源结构决定了中国燃煤发电是中国CO2主要排放源之一,因此实现燃煤发电碳减排对降低中国碳排放总量,减少温室气体排放具有重要意义。准确地计算燃煤电厂产生的碳排放量是进行碳排放权交易、低碳火电厂在经济上具有可行性,最终实现燃煤电厂碳减排的前提条件之一。本研究根据世界资源研究所提供的计算工具首先界定了本研究对于碳排放计算的范围,其次阐述了不同电厂应针对其使用的燃煤进行工业分析的精细化程度不同而采用不同的计算方法,最后对两组不同机组类型的中国火电厂进行了碳排放量计算和对比分析。根据以上分析得出了大容量、高参数的燃煤发电机组相比小容量发电机组不仅能提高能源利用效率,同时也能相对减少因生产电能而产生的CO2排放。其次,燃煤电厂CO2排放中煤炭固定燃烧占有绝对比例,脱硫及外购电力所占比例较小,但排放的绝对总量并不小。再次,由于大容量、高参数机组与小容量发电机组相比在生产单位电能所消耗的燃煤量更少、其排放的废弃中的CO2浓度相对较高,应此更适合安装碳捕捉系统,有助于提高捕捉效率,降低捕捉CO2的成本。因此,建议在未来建设碳捕捉系统时应优先选择大容量、高参数机组。本研究的创新点在于在上述研究的基础上考虑单个燃煤电厂的煤质、考虑电厂脱硫、外购电力的因素,根据电厂对煤质不同程度的工业分析采用不同的计算方法,目的在于更?     

复杂形态井巷工程三维激光扫描与MIDAS-FLAC3D耦合建模稳定性分析研究

受井巷工程空间形态的复杂性及探测技术的局限性影响,部分人员无法进入的复杂形态井巷工程的实际空间形态往往很难准确获得,复杂井巷工程的数值分析往往很难进行建模或建立模型与实际误差较大,而在此基础上进行的稳定性分析结果可靠性往往较差。采用三维激光扫描技术对复杂形态井巷工程进行三维激光点云扫描,基于点云数据运用MIDAS软件建立精确形态的复杂井巷工程模型,通过耦合技术建立最终可以在FLAC3D中进行运算并且与实际形态相一致的数值模型。最后以某矿山主溜井为工程实例,利用三维激光精确扫描技术获取该井巷工程的实际空间形态,在此基础上进行MIDAS与FLAC3D耦合方法的建模分析,对该复杂井巷工程的稳定状况进行了稳定性分析。     

地下车库火灾烟气扩散规律的数值计算与实验

为了准确预测火灾烟气运动情况,基于SGS湍流模型与大涡模拟相结合的方法预测地下车库中火灾烟气运动规律,采用简单化学反应模型处理地下车库中小汽车火灾的复杂燃烧过程,采用P-1模型计算烟气运动过程中的热辐射传递。设定了5种不同的计算工况,采用数值计算的方法得出火场烟气、温度分布情况;对其中的部分工况进行了实体火灾实验,并与计算结果相对比。研究结果表明:开启机械排烟比只依靠自然排烟时火场温度上升快,但是在稳定燃烧阶段温度相对较低;当火源功率为2MW时,仅依靠自然排烟时火场能见度为2m,当火源功率为4MW时,考虑机械排烟时火场能见度为10m,低于规定值;数值计算和实验结果一致性较好,说明采用的计算模型合理。     

汽车炸弹爆炸下装配式防爆墙弹塑性动力计算与数值分析

根据汽车炸弹恐怖爆炸的特点,计算了汽车炸弹近地爆炸空气冲击波参数,提出了防爆墙结构等效静载的弹塑性动力计算方法。按该方法设计了一种钢板混凝土装配式防爆墙组合结构,并与有限元数值分析结果进行了比较。结果表明,按该方法设计的防爆墙结构,其设计荷载只有其峰值压力的五分之一,能很好地发挥防爆墙结构塑性变形的特点,具有较大的经济价值。     

Chest injuries of elderly postmortem human surrogates (PMHSs) under seat belt and airbag loading in frontal sled impacts: Comparison to matching THOR tests

Abstract

Objective: The goal of the study was to develop experimental chest loading conditions that would cause up to Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) 2 chest injuries in elderly occupants in moderate-speed frontal crashes. The new set of experimental data was also intended to be used in the benchmark of existing thoracic injury criteria in lower-speed collision conditions.

Methods: Six male elderly (age >63) postmortem human subjects (PMHS) were exposed to a 35?km/h (nominal) frontal sled impact. The test fixture consisted of a rigid seat, rigid footrest, and cable seat back. Two restraint conditions (A and B) were compared. Occupants were restrained by a force-limited (2.5?kN [A] and 2?kN [B]) seat belt and a preinflated (16?kPa [A] and 11?kPa [B]; airbag). Condition B also incorporated increased seat friction. Matching sled tests were carried out with the THOR-M dummy. Infra-red telescoping rod for the assessment of chest compression (IRTRACC) readings were used to compute chest injury risk. PMHSs were exposed to a posttest injury assessment. Tests were carried out in 2 stages, using the outcome of the first one combined with a parametric study using the THUMS model to adjust the test conditions in the second. All procedures were approved by the relevant ethics board.

Results: Restraint condition A resulted in an unexpected high number of rib fractures (fx; 10, 14, 15 fx). Under condition B, the adjustment of the relative airbag/occupant position combined with a lower airbag pressure and lower seat belt load limit resulted in a reduced pelvic excursion (85 vs. 110?mm), increased torso pitch and a substantially lower number of rib fractures (1, 0, 4 fx) as intended.

Conclusions: The predicted risk of rib fractures provided by the THOR dummy using the C_max and PC Score injury criteria were lower than the actual injuries observed in the PMHS tests (especially in restraint condition A). However, the THOR dummy was capable of discriminating between the 2 restraint scenarios. Similar results were obtained in the parametric study with the THUMS model.     

Decomposition analysis of the effects of vehicle safety technologies on the motor vehicle collision–related mortality rate from 1994 to 2015

Abstract

Objective: Though the mortality rate for motor vehicle collisions (MVCs) has been decreasing since the 1960s with the advent of the first federal seat belt laws in 1968, MVC remains a leading cause of death for individuals aged 1 to 44 years. The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of frontal (FABs) and side airbags (SABs) and electronic stability control (ESC) on the components of the MVC mortality rate.

Methods: The MVC mortality rate from 1994 to 2015 was separated into its components of exposure of vehicles, exposure of travel, collision density, injury incidence, and case fatality rate. Year was categorized on the availability of safety technology in vehicles: 1994–1997 (first-generation FABs mandated), 1998–2001 (sled-certified, second-generation FABs mandated), 2002–2006 (increasing prevalence of SABs and ESC), 2007–2011 (advanced airbags mandated), and 2012–2015 (ESC mandated, SAB in over 90% of vehicles, introduction of advanced safety systems). Relative contributions (RCs) of the components to changes in the MVC-related mortality rate were calculated as the absolute value of the component’s beta coefficient divided by the sum of the absolute values of all components’ beta coefficients. Negative binomial regression–estimated rate ratios (RRs) for the changes in the rate of each component by year category compared to the prior year category.

Results: Significant decreases in the MVC mortality rate were observed for 2007–2011 and 2012–2015. The decrease in 2007–2011 was due in most part to an 18% decrease in the injury incidence (RR?=?0.82, P?<?.0001, RC?=?63%), though there was a noted contribution by the decrease in vehicle miles traveled (RR?=?0.95, P?<?.0001, RC?=?15%). The continued decrease in mortality in 2012–2015 was due is most part to the 10% decreased case fatality rate (RR?=?0.90, P?<?.0001, RC?=?66%) because there was no significant change in the vehicle miles traveled and injury incidence.

Conclusions: The results of this study highlight the effects of vehicle safety technologies on the MVC-related mortality rate and can help direct prevention efforts. Through the study period, there was no meaningful contribution to decreases in the MVC-related mortality rate due to components related to exposure (i.e., vehicles per population and the rate of vehicle miles traveled), suggesting that prevention efforts at decreasing exposure prevalence would have little effect on the MVC-related mortality rate. Instead, prevention efforts should continue to focus on event-phase methods to decrease injury occurrence and mitigate injury severity during the collision.     

聚集用火下热探测器响应温度的研究

为得出聚集用火下建筑物天花板平面热探测器响应温度的计算公式,采用PyroSim 2015软件进行建模,在模型天花板平面内设置一系列的热电偶代替热探测器监测温度变化,在热释放速率（HRR）分别为1,5,10,20,30 kW和天花板高度分别为3,5,7 m的条件下进行15次数值模拟,对模拟结果数据分析、处理及拟合。研究表明:羽流中心线处温度远高于其他位置;羽流中心线处响应温度随着天花板高度的升高而降低,且与HRR存在显著的二次函数关系;其他位置处响应温度随着天花板高度的升高而降低,随着到羽流中心线距离的增大而降低,且与HRR和到羽流中心线的距离存在显著的二次函数关系。结合室内全年最高温度及补偿温度,建立出聚集用火下热探测器响应温度的计算公式。     

常村煤矿S6-8工作面岩层运动的连续-非连续方法模拟

为了细致地模拟煤矿开采中复杂的岩层运动现象,探讨开采速度的影响,采用自主开发的连续-非连续方法,通过引入应力跌落和准静力计算模式,以常村煤矿S6-8工作面为背景建立数值模型,模拟采动诱发采场上覆岩层的变形-开裂-运动过程。结果表明:本方法可较为细致地模拟煤矿开采中一系列复杂现象,例如,采场上覆岩层的弯曲变形、下沉、开裂、离层和层间错动、直接顶的周期垮落、工作面煤壁上方岩层近似平行展布的倾斜穿层裂缝、若干破断岩块形成的近似等腰梯形结构和采空区局部闭合;开采速度越快,直接顶初次垮距越大,这是由于采场上覆岩层向下运动不充分,直接顶垮落主要受自身和开采卸荷的影响。     

危险化学品泄漏事故泄漏源强反算方法比较研究

比较现有的主要大气源强反算方法,包括Safer实时响应系统中使用的反算方法、基于遗传算法的反算方法、基于最佳摄动量法的反算方法和利用逆向轨迹反演模式的反算方法;对4种反算方法的应用做比较研究,分析各种方法的特点、不足以及适用性,根据各自在实际事件中的应用效果判定算法在应急响应过程的可行性。笔者将牛顿-拉弗森法作为寻根法应用到Safer系统的反算法中,并结合企业生产实际对其应用效果进行验证;结果表明,基于寻根法的Safer反算法反算速度快,结果准确度高,更适用于应急响应过程。同时在各种方法比较的基础上对应急响应应用提出了建议。     

化工园区安全容量计算模型研究

本文探讨了化工园区安全容量的含义。选择了适当的基础安全容量计算模型及事故统计指标,建立了安全容量影响因素体系,在此基础上,运用改进G1法和模糊综合评价法确定各因素的权重和隶属度,进而提出化工园区安全容量的计算模型。