Evolution Rules of Urban-rural Development and Inspiration for China’s Agriculture

Based on urban-rural contrast coefficient,this article designs the agriculture relative development index(ARDI) as indicators measuring the intensity of urban-rural dual structure which is comparable among the countries of the world.This article calculates ARDI of 40 countries from 1980 to 2004.The result shows that ARDI in the developed countries and most of the middle-income countries are rising and yet there are declines in most of the low-income countries.The result also showed that most countries’ ARDI...     

利用中巴地球资源卫星数据反演武汉市湖泊营养状态指数

以武汉市主要湖泊为例,研究了利用中巴地球资源卫星（CBERS2）数据反演水体营养状态指数（TLI）。研究旨在评估利用中巴地球资源卫星数据来估算内陆水体富营养化程度的可能性。首先利用地面水质监测数据计算武汉市某些湖泊监测点的“真实的”营养状态指数（包括综合营养状态指数和修正的Carlson营养状态指数）,同时,在事先经过辐射校正和几何校正的CBERS2图像上,以9×9像元为采样窗口,提取各个对应地点的灰度值均值（从波段1至波段4）;然后,采用多元逐步回归分析,以各波段灰度值均值为自变量,建立营养状态指数经验遥感反演模型;最后,利用模型对整个湖泊水体的营养化状态指数进行反演,并绘制了其空间分布图。 结果显示,营养状态指数的自然对数值与CBERS2图像各波段灰度值之间存在较好相关关系,回归系数平方值(R²)为0.51。利用反演模型反演得到的湖区水质分布与实际情况基本相符。由于CBERS2图像数据可以从我国许多数据分发中心免费获取,这为低成本的水质遥感监测提供了一条途径。     

Modeling potential herbicide loss to surface waters on the Swiss plateau

Lack of sufficiently detailed data often limits the applicability of complex transport-reaction models for estimating potential herbicide loss to surface waters. Therefore, there is also a need for simple models that are easy to apply but still capture the main features of the underlying processes.In this study, a simple regression model was developed to assess the vulnerability of catchments in the Swiss Plateau to diffuse herbicide loss to surface waters. The model is designed as a screening tool to rank the catchments in a relative sense and not to calculate Predicted Environmental Concentrations (PEC) of pesticides. The main goal is to capture two dominating factors controlling diffuse herbicide transport into streams and rivers. These factors are herbicide application and fast flow processes that are mainly responsible for herbicide transport. In a first step vulnerability of sites to herbicide loss is estimated based on site-specific conditions irrespective of actual herbicide application. In the second step, this vulnerability assessment is combined with actual herbicide application data to estimate the potential herbicide loss.The fast flow index (FFI), derived from discharge data using a base flow separation method, was applied as a proxy for the amount of fast flow occurring. The influence of catchment attributes (including topographic, climatic and soil data) on the FFI was analyzed using a multiple regression approach based on data from 57 catchments of the Swiss Plateau. By combining regression analysis with mechanistic knowledge, a two factor non-linear model based on river density and soil permeability as dominant input factors was selected as the best model for FFI prediction given the available data. Higher dimensional models had to be excluded because the strong correlation between the potential input factors led to unrealistic dependences while only minimally improving the quality of the fit.The spatial pattern of the predicted FFI as a measure for the vulnerability to diffuse herbicide losses shows a clearly increasing trend from the western to the eastern part of the Swiss Plateau and towards the pre-alpine/alpine regions in the south.In general the pattern of herbicide use corresponds to site conditions typical of a low FFI. However, the spatial analysis revealed exceptions, namely areas in which high actual herbicide use coincides with a high FFI.Despite the uncertainties in the model, this simple approach seems to be useful for supporting site-adapted agricultural practice whenever the higher accuracy of more detailed models is not required or too expensive to achieve. In addition, in combination with data on actual herbicide application, it can support the design of monitoring strategies by identifying critical areas of actual herbicide loss.     

An imprecise fuzzy risk approach for water quality management of a river system

Uncertainty plays an important role in water quality management problems. The major sources of uncertainty in a water quality management problem are the random nature of hydrologic variables and imprecision (fuzziness) associated with goals of the dischargers and pollution control agencies (PCA). Many Waste Load Allocation (WLA) problems are solved by considering these two sources of uncertainty. Apart from randomness and fuzziness, missing data in the time series of a hydrologic variable may result in additional uncertainty due to partial ignorance. These uncertainties render the input parameters as imprecise parameters in water quality decision making. In this paper an Imprecise Fuzzy Waste Load Allocation Model (IFWLAM) is developed for water quality management of a river system subject to uncertainty arising from partial ignorance. In a WLA problem, both randomness and imprecision can be addressed simultaneously by fuzzy risk of low water quality. A methodology is developed for the computation of imprecise fuzzy risk of low water quality, when the parameters are characterized by uncertainty due to partial ignorance. A Monte-Carlo simulation is performed to evaluate the imprecise fuzzy risk of low water quality by considering the input variables as imprecise. Fuzzy multiobjective optimization is used to formulate the multiobjective model. The model developed is based on a fuzzy multiobjective optimization problem with max–min as the operator. This usually does not result in a unique solution but gives multiple solutions. Two optimization models are developed to capture all the decision alternatives or multiple solutions. The objective of the two optimization models is to obtain a range of fractional removal levels for the dischargers, such that the resultant fuzzy risk will be within acceptable limits. Specification of a range for fractional removal levels enhances flexibility in decision making. The methodology is demonstrated with a case study of the Tunga–Bhadra river system in India.     

Development of a Quantitative Pasture Phosphorus Management Tool Using the SWAT Model1

Abstract: Assessment tools to evaluate phosphorus loss from agricultural lands allow conservation planners to evaluate the impact of management decisions on water quality. Available tools to predict phosphorus loss from agricultural fields are either: (1) qualitative indices with limited applicability to address offsite water quality standards, or (2) models which are prohibitively complex for application by most conservation planners. The purpose of this research was to develop a simple interface for a comprehensive hydrologic/water quality model to allow its usage by farmers and conservation planners. The Pasture Phosphorus Management (PPM) Calculator was developed to predict average annual phosphorus (P) losses from pastures under a variety of field conditions and management options. PPM Calculator is a vastly simplified interface for the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model that requires no knowledge of SWAT by the user. PPM Calculator was validated using 33 months of data on four pasture fields in northwestern Arkansas. This tool has been extensively applied in the Lake Eucha/Spavinaw Basin in northeastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas. PPM Calculator allows conservation planners to take advantage of the predictive capacity of a comprehensive hydrologic water quality model typically reserved for use by hydrologists and engineers. This research demonstrates the applicability of existing water quality models in the development of user friendly P management tools.     

基于道化法(DOW)的计算机辅助软件开发

传统的评价方法费时费力,效率低下.将计算机技术与评价方法相结合是评价工作发展的趋势.介绍了为世界各国石油化工企业所广为接受的美国道化学公司(DOW)火灾、爆炸危险性指数评价法,以及根据该法的评价思路所开发的辅助软件的设计思路和功能.     

人-机系统事故预防理论研究

分析人-机系统事故发生原因,剖析经典以人失误为主因的事故致因模型存在的不足,在该模型基础上增加"刺激"形成的原因,构建了改进事故致因模型。对两模型进行比较研究,指出人机工程学与防止事故的关系,提出了人机工程学防止事故的方法,并给出人机界面合理性主观评价检查表。研究及论证表明:预防人-机系统事故的本质在于有效防止人失误的发生,除安全管理措施以外,最重要的是人机工程学问题,笔者提出的基于人机工程学的人-机系统事故预防理论,对人-机系统事故的预防起到积极的指导作用。     

层次分析法在高层学生公寓火灾危险性评价中的应用

分析高层学生公寓的消防安全特点及其火灾发生危害性,评述现有的高层建筑火灾风险评价方法;在现有的评价方法的基础上,从人员因素、建筑物属性、安全疏散设施、报警与灭火系统、防火与防烟系统、建筑物内电气因素和消防安全管理7个方面综合考虑,建立了高层学生公寓的建筑火灾危险评价指标体系;利用层次分析法对高层学生公寓火灾危险性进行分析,确定其评价指标体系中各层次各指标的权重;分析结果表明:消防安全教育与培训是学生公寓火灾危险评价指标体系中最重要的因素。加强和改进高层学生公寓消防安全管理,对预防或减少高层学生公寓火灾具有现实指导价值。