三峡库区消落带农用坡地磷素径流流失特征

消落带是三峡库区重要的生态交错带,但自发农用和无序开发可能会造成更多的氮磷流失,进而加剧三峡库区水体富营养化。通过对库区连续3 a的定位监测（2011~2013年）,研究了三峡库区消落带农用坡地的磷素流失特征。结果表明：次降雨事件中常规施肥处理的地表径流、壤中流总磷平均浓度分别为0.848±0.153、0.140±0.006 mg/L,其中地表径流中磷的形态以颗粒态为主,壤中流以溶解态的生物可利用磷为主。常规施肥下,地表径流、壤中流磷素年均流失通量分别为0.236±0.004、0.100±0.003 kg·hm 2,地表径流、壤中流磷素流失通量分别占总流失通量的70.2%、29.8%,地表径流是坡地磷素流失的主要途径,但壤中流也是不可忽视的重要途径。与常规施肥处理相比,减量施肥处理地表径流、壤中流磷素流失量分别降低了45.3%、40.0%。建议采取减量施肥的方式,以降低营养盐负荷,保护水环境。     

Tracking nitrogen losses in a greenhouse crop rotation experiment in North China using the EU-Rotate_N simulation model

Vegetable production in China is associated with high inputs of nitrogen, posing a risk of losses to the environment. Organic matter mineralisation is a considerable source of nitrogen (N) which is hard to quantify. In a two-year greenhouse cucumber experiment with different N treatments in North China, non-observed pathways of the N cycle were estimated using the EU-Rotate_N simulation model. EU-Rotate_N was calibrated against crop dry matter and soil moisture data to predict crop N uptake, soil mineral N contents, N mineralisation and N loss. Crop N uptake (Modelling Efficiencies (ME) between 0.80 and 0.92) and soil mineral N contents in different soil layers (ME between 0.24 and 0.74) were satisfactorily simulated by the model for all N treatments except for the traditional N management. The model predicted high N mineralisation rates and N leaching losses, suggesting that previously published estimates of N leaching for these production systems strongly underestimated the mineralisation of N from organic matter.     

珠江三角洲潮土和水稻土酸缓冲特性试验研究

珠江三角洲潮土和水稻土对不同种类的酸具有一定的缓冲性,不同种类的酸对不同类型土壤的酸化趋势不同。大旺水稻土对酸的敏感性强于龙山潮土,龙山潮土属于稍易受害的稍敏感土壤,大旺水稻土属于易受害的敏感土壤;同一土壤对酸的缓冲能力比对碱的缓冲能力强;不同种类的酸对土壤的敏感性不同,土壤对硝酸的敏感性强于对硫酸的敏感性;土壤加酸后酸缓冲曲线和土壤中铝释放曲线的交点可以作为衡量土壤对酸敏感性的指标,交点越低,敏感性越强;加酸后土壤中铝的释放可以用模型y=nx+k来预测。     

Using multivariate regression modeling for sampling and predicting chemical characteristics of mixed waste in old landfills

Municipal solid waste landfills pose a threat on environment and human health, especially old landfills which lack facilities for collection and treatment of landfill gas and leachate. Consequently, missing information about emission flows prevent site-specific environmental risk assessments. To overcome this gap, the combination of waste sampling and analysis with statistical modeling is one option for estimating present and future emission potentials. Optimizing the tradeoff between investigation costs and reliable results requires knowledge about both: the number of samples to be taken and variables to be analyzed.This article aims to identify the optimized number of waste samples and variables in order to predict a larger set of variables. Therefore, we introduce a multivariate linear regression model and tested the applicability by usage of two case studies. Landfill A was used to set up and calibrate the model based on 50 waste samples and twelve variables. The calibrated model was applied to Landfill B including 36 waste samples and twelve variables with four predictor variables.The case study results are twofold: first, the reliable and accurate prediction of the twelve variables can be achieved with the knowledge of four predictor variables (Loi, EC, pH and Cl). For the second Landfill B, only ten full measurements would be needed for a reliable prediction of most response variables. The four predictor variables would exhibit comparably low analytical costs in comparison to the full set of measurements. This cost reduction could be used to increase the number of samples yielding an improved understanding of the spatial waste heterogeneity in landfills.Concluding, the future application of the developed model potentially improves the reliability of predicted emission potentials. The model could become a standard screening tool for old landfills if its applicability and reliability would be tested in additional case studies.     

台风灾害债券设计——基于广东省数据的实证研究

台风作为全球发生频率最高,影响最严重的一种自然灾害,对我国的影响也非常严重。在巨灾风险证券化、巨灾债券已成为巨灾保险业大趋势的背景下,发展我国台风灾害债券具有重要的现实意义。以我国受台风灾害影响最严重的省份——广东省为研究对象,收集了其近30年相关台风损失数据,利用非寿险精算技术分析其台风的损失分布和次数分布,在此基础上利用CAMP模型和现金流分析对广东省的台风灾害债券做了初步设计。     

硫酸铝渣去除水中磷研究

分别以蒸馏水和太湖水为例,研究了硫酸铝渣去除水中磷的能力,并分析了其对水体Al3+、SO24-以及pH的影响.结果表明:(1)除太湖水pH为9.0、10.0两种条件外,随着磷平衡浓度的增加,硫酸铝渣除磷量趋于某一定值,其规律符合Langmuir吸附等温式;太湖水pH为9.0、10.0两种条件下,硫酸铝渣除磷量符合Fre...     

聚硅酸锌铝的制备及其性能研究

以硅酸钠、硫酸锌、硫酸铝为原料,通过共聚法制备了无机高分子絮凝剂聚硅酸锌铝（PSZAS）,研究了Na₂SiO₃的摩尔浓度、活化时间、Al/Si、Zn/Si 配比及絮凝剂的投加量对絮凝效果的影响,用X-射线衍射（XRD）和电子扫描电镜（SEM）对该絮凝剂的结构及形貌进行了表征。结果表明：当硅酸钠的浓度为0.4 mol/L,硅酸活化时间为2 h,Si∶Al∶Zn=1∶1∶1.5,絮凝剂投加量为20 mL/L废水时,絮凝剂的电中和能力和吸附架桥能力最强,絮凝剂对含H-酸染料模拟废水的絮凝效果最好。     

Modeling potential herbicide loss to surface waters on the Swiss plateau

Lack of sufficiently detailed data often limits the applicability of complex transport-reaction models for estimating potential herbicide loss to surface waters. Therefore, there is also a need for simple models that are easy to apply but still capture the main features of the underlying processes.In this study, a simple regression model was developed to assess the vulnerability of catchments in the Swiss Plateau to diffuse herbicide loss to surface waters. The model is designed as a screening tool to rank the catchments in a relative sense and not to calculate Predicted Environmental Concentrations (PEC) of pesticides. The main goal is to capture two dominating factors controlling diffuse herbicide transport into streams and rivers. These factors are herbicide application and fast flow processes that are mainly responsible for herbicide transport. In a first step vulnerability of sites to herbicide loss is estimated based on site-specific conditions irrespective of actual herbicide application. In the second step, this vulnerability assessment is combined with actual herbicide application data to estimate the potential herbicide loss.The fast flow index (FFI), derived from discharge data using a base flow separation method, was applied as a proxy for the amount of fast flow occurring. The influence of catchment attributes (including topographic, climatic and soil data) on the FFI was analyzed using a multiple regression approach based on data from 57 catchments of the Swiss Plateau. By combining regression analysis with mechanistic knowledge, a two factor non-linear model based on river density and soil permeability as dominant input factors was selected as the best model for FFI prediction given the available data. Higher dimensional models had to be excluded because the strong correlation between the potential input factors led to unrealistic dependences while only minimally improving the quality of the fit.The spatial pattern of the predicted FFI as a measure for the vulnerability to diffuse herbicide losses shows a clearly increasing trend from the western to the eastern part of the Swiss Plateau and towards the pre-alpine/alpine regions in the south.In general the pattern of herbicide use corresponds to site conditions typical of a low FFI. However, the spatial analysis revealed exceptions, namely areas in which high actual herbicide use coincides with a high FFI.Despite the uncertainties in the model, this simple approach seems to be useful for supporting site-adapted agricultural practice whenever the higher accuracy of more detailed models is not required or too expensive to achieve. In addition, in combination with data on actual herbicide application, it can support the design of monitoring strategies by identifying critical areas of actual herbicide loss.     

Shrub Encroachment Impacts the Potential for Multiple Use Conflicts on Public Land

Public rangelands in North America are typically managed under a multiple use policy that includes livestock grazing and wildlife management. In this article we report on the landscape level extent of grassland loss to shrub encroachment in a portion of the Rocky Mountain Forest Reserve in southwestern Alberta, Canada, and review the associated implications for simultaneously supporting livestock and wildlife populations while maintaining range health on this diminishing vegetation type. Digitized aerial photographs of 12 km of valley bottom from 1958 and 1974 were co-registered to ortho-rectified digital imagery taken in 1998, and an un-supervised classification used to determine areas associated with grassland and shrubland in each year. Field data from 2002 were over-layed using GPS coordinates to refine the classification using a calibration-validation procedure. Over the 40-year study period, open grasslands declined from 1,111 ha in 1958 to 465 ha in 1998, representing a 58% decrease. Using mean production data for grass and shrub dominated areas we then quantified aggregate changes in grazing capacity of both primary (grassland) and secondary (shrubland) habitats for livestock and wildlife. Total declines in grazing capacity from 1958 to 1998 totaled 2,744 Animal Unit Months (AUMs) of forage (−39%), including a 58% decrease in primary (i.e., open grassland) range, which was only partly offset by the availability of 1,357 AUMs within less productive and less accessible shrubland habitats. Our results indicate shrub encroachment has been extensive and significantly reduced forage availability to domestic livestock and wildlife, and will increase the difficulty of conserving remaining grasslands. Although current grazing capacities remain marginally above those specified by regulated grazing policies, it is clear that continued habitat change and decreases in forage availability are likely to threaten the condition of remaining grasslands. Unless shrub encroachment is arrested or grassland restoration initiated, reductions in aggregate ungulate numbers may be necessary.

粮食基础设施震后恢复重建关键问题研究

在对汶川8.0级地震后绵阳市粮食基础设施破坏情况调研的基础上,提出恢复与发展并重、粮食基础设施节点与网络并行、推进行业整合和信息化的建设思路,规划了绵阳市灾后恢复重建的维修保障和重建发展项目,并对规划实施效果进行了经济和社会效益分析。