某雷达的可靠性工程途径

本文是对某雷达采用的可靠性工程途径展开讨论,来说明可靠性工程在雷达研制和生产中的价值。     

野战弹药环境安全的灰色模糊综合评判

战场环境安全评价是对野战弹药实施合理防护的前提。将灰色模糊数学理论应用于“弹药-野战环境”系统的安全评价,通过分析影响野战弹药安全的环境因素,建立了系统综合评价指标体系,在此基础上进行了系统综合评价并得到了满意的效果。     

基于神经网络的某型飞机的人-机-环境系统可靠性分析

提出了利用神经网络,对某型飞机人-机-环境系统的可靠性进行了分析的方法。该方法利用已有飞机本身的可靠性数据,综合考虑了飞机本身、环境条件影响、人为操作因素的影响。全面反映了各种因素共同作用下的系统可靠性,建模简单,对飞机系统可靠性分析具有现实意义。     

基于事故树分析的野战弹药防护系统设计

合理确定战场防护需求是对野战弹药实施合理防护的前提。通过对野战弹药防护系统的分析,建立了野战弹药非战斗损耗事故树,对事故树进行了定性、定量分析,确定了野战弹药防护的主要内容,并在此基础上提出了野战弹药综合防护系统设计方案。     

某钢厂工业输水管路系统可靠性分析

用事件树分析法对工业输水管道进行了系统可靠性分析和定量计算,得出了不同维修策略模型下系统的概率,有效地估计了维修策略对系统的影响,给出了提高管道系统安全性的建议.     

Inorganic pollution in water—the analyst's viewpoint†

Inorganic pollution comprises both major and minor constituents, although only 12 chemical elements may be considered major components. Twenty‐eight elements constitute a group of common minor elements and an additional 13 elements comprise a group of less common minor constituents. Reliable quantitative data are required on the occurrence of these substances in a wide variety of water types, usually at extremely low concentrations. The analysis of standard reference water samples provides information on the overall reliability of water‐quality data. Although most major constituents may be determined with acceptable reliability, determinations of certain minor constituents lack comparable precision; for example, determinations of boron, nickel, and chromium. Few precision data are available on the determination of the less common trace elements. Several comparatively new analytical techniques, such as flameless atomic absorption spectrophotometry, voltammetry, and emission spectroscopy with plasma excitation, appear capable of providing improved sensitivity.     

微机联锁控制的铁路道口报警系统设计与应用

为提高铁路道口报警系统的稳定可靠性,将微机连锁源程序与道口控制程序融合后,设计一种微机联锁信号控制铁路道口自动报警系统。分别介绍单股道铁路道口和2条股道以上铁路道口的系统硬件电路图、工作原理和软件设计方法。系统试运行阶段没有出现任何错误和异常,现已推广使用。     

民航安全中人的因素研究方法综述

分析民航业中人的因素研究方法,指出其存在的不足。在此基础上,对核工业中成功应用的人的可靠性分析技术进行系统的研究。结合其优势,提出在民航安全工作中进行人的可靠性研究的观点。并将民航业与核工业中的多项内容进行对比,论证研究其可行性。为民航安全中人的因素研究提供新的理论指导和可靠的数据支持,最终使人因分析结果全面、深入和准确。     

台风下乙烯精馏塔抗风性能及可靠性分析

采用流固耦合方法对台风下乙烯精馏塔的风载荷分布及风振响应进行数值模拟,建立了台风下塔设备流固耦合数值模型,对乙烯精馏塔的抗风能力和可靠性进行了分析。研究发现乙烯精馏塔的迎风面为风压力,背风面和迎风子午线两侧为风吸力,风压力和风吸力沿着塔高不断增大。在风载荷作用下,乙烯精馏塔的最大应力出现在迎风向塔体与裙座的连接处,最大变形出现在塔顶。随着风速增大,最大应力和变形呈三次多项式的变化关系,但频率基本保持不变,呈现一阶频率振动。通过强度、挠度和疲劳分析,可对不同台风强度下的乙烯精馏塔可靠性进行校核。     

A novel tool for Bayesian reliability analysis using AHP as a framework for prior elicitation

Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) is a powerful and popular technique to support risk-based decisions. Unfortunately, QRAs are often hampered by significant uncertainty in the frequency of failure estimation for physical assets. This uncertainty is largely due to lack of quality failure data in published sources. The failure data may be limited, incompatible and/or outdated. Consequently, there is a need for robust methods and tools that can incorporate all available information to facilitate reliability analysis of critical assets such as pipelines, pressure vessels, rotating equipment, etc. This paper presents a novel practical approach that can be used to help overcome data scarcity issues in reliability analysis. A Bayesian framework is implemented to cohesively integrate objective data with expert opinion with the aim toward deriving time to failure distributions for physical assets. The Analytic Hierarchy Process is utilized to aggregate time to failure estimates from multiple experts to minimize biases and address inconsistencies in their estimates. These estimates are summarized in the form of informative priors that are implemented in a Bayesian update procedure for the Weibull distribution. The flexibility of the proposed methodology allows for efficiently dealing with data limitations. Application of the proposed approach is illustrated using a case study.