人的可靠性分析研究

人的可靠性研究是系统可靠性研究的一项重要内容。现在越来越多的企业走向大型化、连续化、自动化道路,企业员工接触各种大型设备的机会越来越多,一旦员工出现人为误操作,便可能发生重大事故,造成重大人员伤亡和财产损失,也很可能造成环境污染。因此,提高人的可靠性分析即可减少人员的误操作。本文主要对人的可靠性分析、人的可靠性评估以及人的可靠性管理三大方面进行探讨。首先,概述了人的可靠性研究发展经历的两个阶段和可靠性数据不足之处。其次,对人的可靠性研究方法进行汇总,并且对第一代和第二代的HRA进行描述。同时,提出了人的可靠性评估步骤与管理建议。最后,根据所作的工作,提出一些研究的难点和前景,以便使其更好地服务于工业化生产。     

城市供水管网在地震时的连通可靠性分析

考虑地震作用效应和管道抗力的随机特性,建立了埋地管道单元的概率预测模型,评估其在地震时的震害状态.把供水管网系统简化为边权有向网络图,通过Monte Carlo随机模拟过程,近似再现管网中各管段的破坏状态,进而分别结合图论理论方法和模糊关系矩阵法,对管网进行连通可靠性分析.由于Monte Carlo模拟算法是以管网各节...     

基于ANSYS Workbench的某弹药储运方舱支撑件力学分析

目的研究某弹药储运方舱支撑件的力学特性。方法采用SolidWorks软件建立三维模型,利用ANSYS Workbench软件进行静力学和动力学的仿真分析。结果仿真结果显示,该支撑件在静力学中所受的最大应力值为2633.7 Pa,最大变形量为5.6847×10-5m,动力学中振动形式有弯曲振动和扭曲振动,前6阶的固有频率在117.5~286.7 Hz之间。结论研究表明,该支撑件满足结构的刚强度要求,并为下一步进行瞬态动力学分析、随机振动分析奠定了基础。     

一种制导弹药电子部件可靠性预计方法

目的综合考虑制导弹药全寿命各种应力的大小及作用时间,预计制导弹药电子部件的可靠性。方法把一般电子设备可靠性预计方法引入制导弹药,对运输和储存环境、发射使用环境,分别选用不工作和工作状态的预计方法。结果储存10~15年的条件下,可靠度在0.895~0.91之间。结论汇总所有电子元器件预计结果,储存10~15年,电子部件仍满足使用要求。     

RANDAP: An integrated framework for reliability analysis of detailed action plans of combined automatic-operator emergency response taking into account control room operator errors

Automatic process control and control room operators supervision/intervention in an emergency are of critical importance in major hazard industries. These combined operator and automatic actions are defined in Detailed Action Plans (DAP). A framework has been proposed for analyzing the reliability, and hence the likelihood of success, of DAPs. The Reliability Block Diagram technique is utilized for modeling the reliability of integrated automatic-operator emergency actions. The focus is on incorporating operator's operational and cognitive errors in the process/equipment reliability analysis. For this purpose, the human reliability analysis method SPAR-H is utilized. The proposed framework was used for analyzing emergency response DAPs of a real process plant in order to check and improve its applicability. It is argued that the presented framework facilitates the DAP assessment process by performing Task Analysis, modeling the detailed tasks as well as reliability analysis, thereby uncovering the shortcomings of the designed DAPs. Besides, it provides a very effective, transparent tool with insight into improvement areas and directions for improving the reliability of DAPs.     

船舶引航员可靠性评价体系研究

为有效预测船舶引航员作业中的安全可靠性,预防引航事故,基于其职业特点,提出了情绪状态、注意力、心情状态等动态和静态评价指标各5个,并采用专家评价或自评的方式对指标赋值。采用专家调查、DEMATEL方法,研究、验证了指标的合适性和指标间关系的正确性,并确定了各指标的权重。结果表明:引航员心情状态的权重最大(0.123 6),基本生理素质的权重最小(0.082 6);最后通过案例分析,得到某一级引航员的可靠性值为91.342 5。引航员在工作中有良好的心理和生理状态以及良好的操作技能,有助于引航员可靠性的提高,从而减少引航事故的发生。     

Issues of the Human Reliability Analysis in the Context of Probabilistic Safety Studies

This article addresses methodological issues of the human reliability analysis (HRA) in the context of probabilistic safety studies. Several conventional HRA techniques, more often used for the evaluation of the human error probabilities (HEPs), have been classified. A taxonomy of human actions, failure events, and related factors is outlined in order to distinguish action phases, human behavior types and incorrect outputs (errors of omission or commission), error types (slips, lapses, and mistakes), and performance-shaping factors (PSFs) influencing the human performance. A tree is proposed to facilitate the selection of a specific method for the evaluation of human reliability with regard to attributes of the situation analyzed. A software system based on the expert system technology to facilitate and document PSA and HRA is outlined. At the end of the article some research challenges in the domain are discussed.     

An Investigation of Stress Level and Human Reliability Analysis of Two Security Companies in Taiwan

This article presents the results of an evaluation and comparison study of three subjective techniques for determining human reliability under stress for work performed at two Taiwanese security companies. Stress levels at security companies were estimated by using the Unified Tri-service Cognitive Performance Assessment Battery and 40 participants from two similar-sized companies. Experiment results (memory searching task and mathematical processing task) indicated that the participants were under high levels of stress. Three subjective techniques (Success Likelihood Index Method, Technique for Human Error Rate Prediction, and Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique) for estimating human error probability were evaluated and compared by using 20 experts for six tasks. The comparison criteria are interjudge consistency and accuracy. Of the three human error probability tests studied, the Technique for Human Error Rate Prediction and Success Likelihood Index Method were more consistent than the Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique. The same relationship occurred in the comparison of accuracy. Thus, the Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique may need to be modified in some way if it is to be useful. It was already known that this technique required modifications in error-producing conditions and nominal human unreliability. Our work presents additional evidence to substantiate this.     

Reliability of a Questionnaire and an Ergonomic Checklist for Assessing Working Conditions and Health at Call Centres

Background. The purpose was to study the test-retest reliability and internal consistency of questions in aquestionnaire concerning working conditions and health and the inter-rater reliability of observations andmeasurements according to an ergonomic checklist. Method. Fifty-seven operators participated in a retestquestionnaire and 58 operators participated in an inter-observer test. Results. The questions had fair to good or higher reliability in 142 of the total of 312. Twenty-seven of the total of 44 variables in the ergonomicchecklist were classified as having fair to good or higher reliability. Conclusions. About half of the questionshad fair to good or higher reliability and can be recommended for further analyses. The majority of variablesin the ergonomic checklist were classified as having fair to good or higher reliability. Low reliability does notnecessarily indicate that the reliability of the test, per se, is low but may signify that the conditions measuredvary over time or that the answers are aggregated in one part of the scale.     

地铁系统脆弱性的建模与分析

为了揭示地铁系统脆弱性的内涵,提高地铁运营安全性与可靠性。基于工程系统脆弱性和网络拓扑脆弱性理论,采用系统建模与分析的方法,建立了地铁系统脆弱性的脆弱链模型,进行了基于功能和界面关系的脆弱性分析。结果表明:脆弱性是地铁系统的固有隐藏属性,以功能和界面关系为载体,以易感性和易损性为外部表现,并在网络化运营条件体现出分布集中性和影响扩散性;地铁系统脆弱性的脆弱链模型由脆弱源、脆弱性关联和脆弱点构成,干扰通过脆弱链实现了易感性行为向易损性后果的转化,脆弱源的易感性能、脆弱点的易损性能和脆弱性关联性能是决定上述转化过程的根本要素;地铁系统的脆弱性程度与子系统间的依赖程度和界面耦合难度正相关。