Participatory monitoring to connect local and global priorities for forest restoration

New global initiatives to restore forest landscapes present an unparalleled opportunity to reverse deforestation and forest degradation. Participatory monitoring could play a crucial role in providing accountability, generating local buy in, and catalyzing learning in monitoring systems that need scalability and adaptability to a range of local sites. We synthesized current knowledge from literature searches and interviews to provide lessons for the development of a scalable, multisite participatory monitoring system. Studies show that local people can collect accurate data on forest change, drivers of change, threats to reforestation, and biophysical and socioeconomic impacts that remote sensing cannot. They can do this at one‐third the cost of professionals. Successful participatory monitoring systems collect information on a few simple indicators, respond to local priorities, provide appropriate incentives for participation, and catalyze learning and decision making based on frequent analyses and multilevel interactions with other stakeholders. Participatory monitoring could provide a framework for linking global, national, and local needs, aspirations, and capacities for forest restoration.     

The least‐cost biodiversity impact mitigation hierarchy with a focus on marine fisheries and bycatch issues

Least‐cost implementation of the mitigation hierarchy of impacts on biodiversity minimizes the cost of a given level of biodiversity conservation, at project or ecosystem levels, and requires minimizing costs across and within hierarchy steps. Incentive‐based policy instruments that price biodiversity to alter producer and consumer behavior and decision making are generally the most effective way to achieve least‐cost implementation across and within the different hierarchy steps and across all producers and conservation channels. Nonetheless, there are circumstances that favor direct regulation or intrinsic motivation. Conservatory offsets, introduced within the conservatory first three steps of the mitigation hierarchy, rather than the fourth step to compensate the residual, provide an additional incentive‐based policy instrument. The least‐cost mitigation hierarchy framework, induced through incentive‐based policy instruments, including conservatory offsets, mitigates fisheries bycatch consistent with given targets, the Law of the Sea, and the Convention on Biological Diversity.     

Ecological consequences of forest elephant declines for Afrotropical forests

Poaching is rapidly extirpating African forest elephants (Loxodonta cyclotis) from most of their historical range, leaving vast areas of elephant‐free tropical forest. Elephants are ecological engineers that create and maintain forest habitat; thus, their loss will have large consequences for the composition and structure of Afrotropical forests. Through a comprehensive literature review, we evaluated the roles of forest elephants in seed dispersal, nutrient recycling, and herbivory and physical damage to predict the cascading ecological effects of their population declines. Loss of seed dispersal by elephants will favor tree species dispersed abiotically and by smaller dispersal agents, and tree species composition will depend on the downstream effects of changes in elephant nutrient cycling and browsing. Loss of trampling and herbivory of seedlings and saplings will result in high tree density with release from browsing pressures. Diminished seed dispersal by elephants and high stem density are likely to reduce the recruitment of large trees and thus increase homogeneity of forest structure and decrease carbon stocks. The loss of ecological services by forest elephants likely means Central African forests will be more like Neotropical forests, from which megafauna were extirpated thousands of years ago. Without intervention, as much as 96% of Central African forests will have modified species composition and structure as elephants are compressed into remaining protected areas. Stopping elephant poaching is an urgent first step to mitigating these effects, but long‐term conservation will require land‐use planning that incorporates elephant habitat into forested landscapes that are being rapidly transformed by industrial agriculture and logging.     

Conserving and managing the subnivium

In regions where snowfall historically has been a defining seasonal characteristic of the landscape, warming winters have reduced the depth, duration, and extent of snowpack. However, most management and conservation has focused on how aboveground wildlife will be affected by altered snow conditions, even though the majority of species that persist through the winter do so under the snowpack in a thermally stable refugium: the subnivium. Shortened winters, forest management practices, and winter recreation can alter subnivium conditions by increasing snow compaction and compromising thermal stability at the soil–snow interface. To help slow the loss of the subnivium in the face of rapidly changing winter conditions, we suggest managers adopt regional conservation plans for identifying threatened snow‐covered environments; measure and predict the effects land cover and habitat management has on local subnivium conditions; and control the timing and distribution of activities that disturb and compact snow cover (e.g., silvicultural practices, snow recreation, and road and trail maintenance). As a case study, we developed a spatially explicit model of subnivium presence in a working landscape of the Chequamegon National Forest, Wisconsin. We identified landscapes where winter recreation and management practices could threaten potentially important areas for subnivium persistence. Similar modeling approaches could inform management decisions related to subnivium conservation. Current climate projections predict that snow seasons will change rapidly in many regions, and as result, we advocate for the immediate recognition, conservation, and management of the subnivium and its dependent species.     

苏州古城区水体污染时空分异特征及污染源解析

利用2012年苏州古城区30个监测断面的11个水质指标数据,综合运用水质指数模型(WQI)、层次聚类(HCA)、后退式判别(DA)、因子分析(FA)、绝对主成分多元线性回归(APCS-MLR)及GIS平台系统分析了旅游城市苏州古城区河网水体污染物时空分异特征及污染源解析.结果表明:①苏州古城区内城河及外围河道水体的CCME WQI值介于40~74之间,其中,66.67%的监测点水环境遭到严重破坏,主要集中在内城河河道;②系统聚类分析将采样时间分为1—3月、11月及4—6月、7—10月3个时段;将采样点分为2类,从空间上反映了古城区内城河与外围河道的污染程度;③采样时间和采样点聚类分析结果的判别分析交叉验证,正确率分别达到88.1%和78.5%;表征时间差异性用了7个指标,分别为总氮(TN)、总磷(TP)、溶解氧(DO)、水温(T)、高锰酸盐指数(COD Mn)、藻密度(Algae density)、叶绿素(Chl),表征空间差异性用了5个指标,分别为总氮(TN)、氨氮(NH3-N)、溶解氧(DO)、浊度(Turb)、水温(T);显著性指标的时空差异性比较明显;④古城区内城河河道在1—3月、11月及4—6月、7—10月3个时段内的因子分析分别提取4、3和4个因子,累积解释方差分别为83.64%、72.67%和77.98%;古城区外围河道在全年内的因子分析提取了3个因子,累积解释了62.28%的总方差;因子分析表明,古城区内城河及外围河道主要为氮、磷等营养物质污染及夏季藻类爆发的问题,与古城区外围河道相比内城河河道的污染更为严重,应优先开展治理;内城河氮、磷污染除了有来自生活、餐饮旅游等第三产业的污染外,还受到降雨地表径流及河道底泥释放的非点源污染影响;⑤绝对主成分多元线性回归(APCS-MLR)表明,总氮(TN)、氨氮(NH3-N)、总磷(TP)和高锰酸盐指数(COD Mn)主要来自城市生活及餐饮旅游等第三产业污水.研究结果可为苏州古城区河道水环境改善治理提供参考.     

Multiple impact pathways of the 2015–2016 El Niño in coastal Kenya

The 2015–2016 El Niño had large impacts globally. The effects were not as great as anticipated in Kenya, however, leading some commentators to call it a ‘non-event’. Our study uses a novel combination of participatory Climate Vulnerability and Capacity Analysis tools, and new and existing social and biophysical data, to analyse vulnerability to, and the multidimensional impacts of, the 2015–2016 El Niño episode in southern coastal Kenya. Using a social-ecological systems lens and a unique dataset, our study reveals impacts overlooked by conventional analysis. We show how El Niño stressors interact with and amplify existing vulnerabilities to differentially impact local ecosystems and people. The policy significance of this finding is that the development of specific national capacities to deal with El Niño events is insufficient; it will be necessary to also address local vulnerabilities to everyday and recurrent stressors and shocks to build resilience to the effects of El Niño and other extremes in climate and weather.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01321-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Incorporating fragmentation and non‐native species into distribution models to inform fluvial fish conservation

Fluvial fishes face increased imperilment from anthropogenic activities, but the specific factors contributing most to range declines are often poorly understood. For example, the range of the fluvial‐specialist shoal bass (Micropterus cataractae) continues to decrease, yet how perceived threats have contributed to range loss is largely unknown. We used species distribution models to determine which factors contributed most to shoal bass range loss. We estimated a potential distribution based on natural abiotic factors and a series of currently occupied distributions that incorporated variables characterizing land cover, non‐native species, and river fragmentation intensity (no fragmentation, dams only, and dams and large impoundments). We allowed interspecific relationships between non‐native congeners and shoal bass to vary across fragmentation intensities. Results from the potential distribution model estimated shoal bass presence throughout much of their native basin, whereas models of currently occupied distribution showed that range loss increased as fragmentation intensified. Response curves from models of currently occupied distribution indicated a potential interaction between fragmentation intensity and the relationship between shoal bass and non‐native congeners, wherein non‐natives may be favored at the highest fragmentation intensity. Response curves also suggested that >100 km of interconnected, free‐flowing stream fragments were necessary to support shoal bass presence. Model evaluation, including an independent validation, suggested that models had favorable predictive and discriminative abilities. Similar approaches that use readily available, diverse, geospatial data sets may deliver insights into the biology and conservation needs of other fluvial species facing similar threats.     

九华山隧道开挖爆破对古城墙影响的计算分析

计算分析了南京九华山隧道工程开挖爆破对明古城墙的影响。在对国内外流行的安全标准进行比较的基础上,指出了采用频率与震速结合的爆破震动安全标准的必要性,且采用德国爆破震动安全标准作为计算九华山隧道开挖爆破对古城墙的影响的判据;分别利用目前流行的震动速度和震动频率公式进行计算,判断开挖爆破对古城墙的影响程度及影响范围。结果表明,爆破震动对古城墙安全构成威胁,并计算得出开挖爆破最小安全距离。     

Formation and Evolution of Ancient Lakes on South Coast Plain of Laizhou Bay

Abstract

Based on the data of historical geography, the analysis of the stratigraphic section, and the textual research of place names and satellite photographic interpretations, the authors study the formation and evolution of ancient lakes on the south coast plain of Laizhou Bay where there were once three lakes: Judian Lake, Qingshuibo Lake and Biehua Lake. All the lakes formed 6000 years ago evolved from the lagoons near the estuary and went through two periods, the golden age in the Middle Holocene and the shrinking age in the Late Holocene. The disappearance of the lakes resulted from the drying climate, the migration of the river courses and the activities of human beings. Among the three reasons, the migration of the river courses is the main one.