Effects of uncertainty and variability on population declines and IUCN Red List classifications

The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List Categories and Criteria is a quantitative framework for classifying species according to extinction risk. Population models may be used to estimate extinction risk or population declines. Uncertainty and variability arise in threat classifications through measurement and process error in empirical data and uncertainty in the models used to estimate extinction risk and population declines. Furthermore, species traits are known to affect extinction risk. We investigated the effects of measurement and process error, model type, population growth rate, and age at first reproduction on the reliability of risk classifications based on projected population declines on IUCN Red List classifications. We used an age‐structured population model to simulate true population trajectories with different growth rates, reproductive ages and levels of variation, and subjected them to measurement error. We evaluated the ability of scalar and matrix models parameterized with these simulated time series to accurately capture the IUCN Red List classification generated with true population declines. Under all levels of measurement error tested and low process error, classifications were reasonably accurate; scalar and matrix models yielded roughly the same rate of misclassifications, but the distribution of errors differed; matrix models led to greater overestimation of extinction risk than underestimations; process error tended to contribute to misclassifications to a greater extent than measurement error; and more misclassifications occurred for fast, rather than slow, life histories. These results indicate that classifications of highly threatened taxa (i.e., taxa with low growth rates) under criterion A are more likely to be reliable than for less threatened taxa when assessed with population models. Greater scrutiny needs to be placed on data used to parameterize population models for species with high growth rates, particularly when available evidence indicates a potential transition to higher risk categories.     

苏州古城区水体污染时空分异特征及污染源解析

利用2012年苏州古城区30个监测断面的11个水质指标数据,综合运用水质指数模型(WQI)、层次聚类(HCA)、后退式判别(DA)、因子分析(FA)、绝对主成分多元线性回归(APCS-MLR)及GIS平台系统分析了旅游城市苏州古城区河网水体污染物时空分异特征及污染源解析.结果表明:①苏州古城区内城河及外围河道水体的CCME WQI值介于40~74之间,其中,66.67%的监测点水环境遭到严重破坏,主要集中在内城河河道;②系统聚类分析将采样时间分为1—3月、11月及4—6月、7—10月3个时段;将采样点分为2类,从空间上反映了古城区内城河与外围河道的污染程度;③采样时间和采样点聚类分析结果的判别分析交叉验证,正确率分别达到88.1%和78.5%;表征时间差异性用了7个指标,分别为总氮(TN)、总磷(TP)、溶解氧(DO)、水温(T)、高锰酸盐指数(COD Mn)、藻密度(Algae density)、叶绿素(Chl),表征空间差异性用了5个指标,分别为总氮(TN)、氨氮(NH3-N)、溶解氧(DO)、浊度(Turb)、水温(T);显著性指标的时空差异性比较明显;④古城区内城河河道在1—3月、11月及4—6月、7—10月3个时段内的因子分析分别提取4、3和4个因子,累积解释方差分别为83.64%、72.67%和77.98%;古城区外围河道在全年内的因子分析提取了3个因子,累积解释了62.28%的总方差;因子分析表明,古城区内城河及外围河道主要为氮、磷等营养物质污染及夏季藻类爆发的问题,与古城区外围河道相比内城河河道的污染更为严重,应优先开展治理;内城河氮、磷污染除了有来自生活、餐饮旅游等第三产业的污染外,还受到降雨地表径流及河道底泥释放的非点源污染影响;⑤绝对主成分多元线性回归(APCS-MLR)表明,总氮(TN)、氨氮(NH3-N)、总磷(TP)和高锰酸盐指数(COD Mn)主要来自城市生活及餐饮旅游等第三产业污水.研究结果可为苏州古城区河道水环境改善治理提供参考.     

Multiple impact pathways of the 2015–2016 El Niño in coastal Kenya

The 2015–2016 El Niño had large impacts globally. The effects were not as great as anticipated in Kenya, however, leading some commentators to call it a ‘non-event’. Our study uses a novel combination of participatory Climate Vulnerability and Capacity Analysis tools, and new and existing social and biophysical data, to analyse vulnerability to, and the multidimensional impacts of, the 2015–2016 El Niño episode in southern coastal Kenya. Using a social-ecological systems lens and a unique dataset, our study reveals impacts overlooked by conventional analysis. We show how El Niño stressors interact with and amplify existing vulnerabilities to differentially impact local ecosystems and people. The policy significance of this finding is that the development of specific national capacities to deal with El Niño events is insufficient; it will be necessary to also address local vulnerabilities to everyday and recurrent stressors and shocks to build resilience to the effects of El Niño and other extremes in climate and weather.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01321-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Formation and Evolution of Ancient Lakes on South Coast Plain of Laizhou Bay

Abstract

Based on the data of historical geography, the analysis of the stratigraphic section, and the textual research of place names and satellite photographic interpretations, the authors study the formation and evolution of ancient lakes on the south coast plain of Laizhou Bay where there were once three lakes: Judian Lake, Qingshuibo Lake and Biehua Lake. All the lakes formed 6000 years ago evolved from the lagoons near the estuary and went through two periods, the golden age in the Middle Holocene and the shrinking age in the Late Holocene. The disappearance of the lakes resulted from the drying climate, the migration of the river courses and the activities of human beings. Among the three reasons, the migration of the river courses is the main one.     

基于保护优先的我国古建筑旅游发展研究

古建筑旅游是目前我国旅游发展的一大趋势，古建筑保护与旅游发展的矛盾是我国古建筑实现可持续旅游发展与科学保护的核心问题。从旅游学角度研究古建筑的保护及其发展，首先对古建筑的旅游认识进行了阐述，剖析了古建筑保护面临的问题，进而提出若干建议与对策，以期能“延年益寿”和可持续发展。     

西部开发与生态经济

论述了西部大开发必须走生态型经济发展的路子，并依托西部地区资源的开发与保护，提出了西部经济开发类型的选择和有关政策支持。     

我国古建筑消防法规与技术规范发展现状研究

古建筑火灾会造成重大财产和文化损失,一直是我国消防工作中的重点和难点问题。我国古建筑消防相关法规与技术体系建设起步较晚,发展速度较慢。近年来我国文物保护部门与消防部门加强对古建筑消防法规与技术体系建设,颁布了一系列法规与规范,为我国古建筑消防事业发展提供了法律和技术依据。本文对我国古建筑火灾特点进行分析,阐述了我国古建筑消防法规与技术规范发展历程,并对其中存在制度单一,灵活性差;发展滞后,内容不完善;体系封闭,社会参与不足等问题进行了分析与探讨,为进一步研究提供了一定的参考价值。     

Erprobung und Erfolgskontrolle eines Phytoremediations-verfahrens zur Sanierung Sprengstoff-kontaminierter B?den

Zusammenfassung  Die Befunde des in seiner Konzeption in Teil I dargestellten Freilandexperimentes dokumentieren die TNT-Abreicherung und Erholung des Standortes im Laufe der Phytoremediation. Das Monitoring umfasst Erhebungen im Feld (Nitroaromatengehalte in Boden, Sickerwasser und Pflanzen; Erfassung von Bodenorganismen und Streuabbau) und den Einsatz einer Biotestbatterie mit 6 Einzeltests. Die Daten belegen die hohe Heterogenit?t der TNT-Kontamination, eine rasche initiale Abreicherung und eine geringe Verlagerung von Nitroaromaten in Pflanzen und Sickerwasser. Die anf?nglich rasche Transformation des TNT zu Aminodinitrotoluolen l?sst nach 3 Monaten deutlich nach. Mit Hilfe der Biotestbatterie wird die Toxizit?t des Bodens differenziert beurteilbar; die boden-biologischen Befunde lassen Langzeitwirkungen der TNT-Belastung wahrscheinlich werden. Eine Gesamtbeurteilung des Projekts wird im dritten Teil der Artikelserie erfolgen. OnlineFirst: 10. 09. 2001     

对福建深沪海底古森林遗址古地理环境的探讨

前人在1987年就开始对福建深沪海底古森林遗址进行了研究,本文在前人调查研究工作的基础上,通过钻探、坑探、14C测年、微体古生物分析等工作,探讨了福建深沪海底古森林遗址古地理环境及海陆变迁情况。该海底古森林生长于全新世长乐组冲洪积地层中,距今约7 000~7 700 a,为湿热气候环境。牡蛎的生长环境为滨海泥滩环境,距今约26 000~27 000 a左右和距今约4 500 a,处于海侵影响范围。研究表明该处经历过多次海陆变迁。     

南京山水与十朝古都胜迹

南京座落在中－新生代山间盆地，是长江南岸－座山青水系的山城。远在600年前，此地已有原始村落。公元3－20世纪，先后有东吴、东晋、宋、齐、梁、陈六朝和南唐、明、太平天国、中华民国在此建都，历时446年，遂成为我国四大古都之一。这座十朝都会的古城，还遗留不少胜迹，如城墙、陵墓、宫址、寺庙、石窟、石雕、石刻、浮图、殿宇、楼台、古钟、园林和湖泊等，是我国历史文化名城和旅游胜地。