基于曲面响应建模的PM2.5可控人为源贡献解析

以东莞市PM_(2.5)重污染月份为例,使用强力法(Brute Force)和RSM/CMAQ曲面响应模型法分别解析了珠三角地区人为源排放对东莞PM_(2.5)的贡献,以及区域传输的可控人为源SO_2、NO_x和一次颗粒物(PM)在不同控制比例下(25%、50%、75%和100%)对东莞PM_(2.5)的累积浓度贡献.强力法研究结果表明,2014年1月珠三角地区人为源二次转化对东莞市PM_(2.5)的贡献(约58.10%)大于一次PM排放贡献(约41.90%),其中,人为源NH_3排放贡献最大,约占总量的21.66%.RSM/CMAQ动态源贡献结果显示,东莞市PM_(2.5)的人为可控源排放贡献(SO_2、NO_x和一次PM)占比为82.17%,受本地排放影响较大,且叠加区域排放的影响;一次PM减排对PM_(2.5)环境浓度的贡献高于仅减排SO_2和NO_x.在减排比例较低时,一次PM减排可有效削减东莞市PM_(2.5)浓度;随控制比例加大,二次前体物(SO_2和NO_x)减排对东莞市PM_(2.5)浓度削减率的影响加大.进一步使用HYSPLIT模式和轨迹聚类分析方法研究了2014年1月东莞市PM_(2.5)污染传输过程.结果显示,该时段共有6条长、短距离污染传输路径,污染物主要来自东莞市东、东北及东南方向,途经其上风向区域(惠州、深圳和广州等)传输至东莞;惠州是各主导上风向出现频率最高的城市,因而其区域传输对东莞PM_(2.5)的贡献也较大,深圳次之.     

辽宁省人为源大气污染物排放清单及特征研究

为全面评估辽宁省关键大气污染物排放状况,系统收集和整理全省基础活动水平信息,采用排放因子法建立了该省2012年人为源大气污染物排放清单.结果显示,2012年辽宁省SO_2、NO_x、CO、PM10、PM_(2.5)、BC、OC及NH_3排放总量分别为1434.8×10~3、1632.3×10~3、6682.9×10~3、1529.9×10~3、1087.8×10~3、74.5×10~3、176.1×10~3t及880.4×10~3t.BC和OC最大贡献源为生物质燃烧源,排放集中分布在辽宁中、西部;NH_3主要来自畜禽养殖与化肥施用,排放高值区位于辽宁中部农业畜牧业发达地区;其他污染物主要来自固定燃烧源和工艺过程源,集中分布在辽宁中部城市群以及大连金州区、甘井子区和普兰店区.大连、沈阳是SO_2、NO_x、NH_3和颗粒物主要排放城市,鞍山和本溪由于钢铁行业发达,成为CO排放量最大的城市.基于卫星观测获得的NO_2垂直柱浓度对NO_x排放空间分布进行评估,两者相关性系数为0.57(p0.01).辽宁省级排放清单与国家尺度排放清单在一定程度存在差异,主要原因在于采用的活动水平和污染物控制效率的不同,基于详细本地化污染源信息建立的省级排放清单可以较好地反映实际情况.建议完善点源排放特征信息并加强本地化测试,进一步降低省级排放清单不确定性.     

Birds as Suppliers of Seed Dispersal in Temperate Ecosystems: Conservation Guidelines from Real‐World Landscapes

Abstract: Seed dispersal by animals is considered a pivotal ecosystem function that drives plant‐community dynamics in natural habitats and vegetation recovery in human‐altered landscapes. Nevertheless, there is a lack of suitable ecological knowledge to develop basic conservation and management guidelines for this ecosystem service. Essential questions, such as how well the abundance of frugivorous animals predicts seeding function in different ecosystems and how anthropogenic landscape heterogeneity conditions the role of dispersers, remain poorly answered. In three temperate ecosystems, we studied seed dispersal by frugivorous birds in landscape mosaics shaped by human disturbance. By applying a standardized design across systems, we related the frequency of occurrence of bird‐dispersed seeds throughout the landscape to the abundance of birds, the habitat features, and the abundance of fleshy fruits. Abundance of frugivorous birds in itself predicted the occurrence of dispersed seeds throughout the landscape in all ecosystems studied. Even those landscape patches impoverished due to anthropogenic disturbance received some dispersed seeds when visited intensively by birds. Nonetheless, human‐caused landscape degradation largely affected seed‐deposition patterns by decreasing cover of woody vegetation or availability of fruit resources that attracted birds and promoted seed dispersal. The relative role of woody cover and fruit availability in seed dispersal by birds differed among ecosystems. Our results suggest that to manage seed dispersal for temperate ecosystem preservation or restoration one should consider abundance of frugivorous birds as a surrogate of landscape‐scale seed dispersal and an indicator of patch quality for the dispersal function; woody cover and fruit resource availability as key landscape features that drive seedfall patterns; and birds as mobile links that connect landscape patches of different degrees of degradation and habitat quality via seed deposition.     

Assessment of the state of vegetation and prognosis of its anthropogenic dynamics in specially protected nature areas on the basis of Phytoecological mapping

Methodological approaches to the construction of phytoecological maps are described regarding specially protected nature areas and their specific features. Such maps offer new possibilities for the assessment and analysis of current and predicted states of vegetation.     

Specific Features of the Formation of Animal Species Communities in Technogenic and Urbanized Landscapes

The formation of the species composition and specific functional, physiological, and phenotypic features of populations in technogenic and urbanized areas was studied by analyzing murine rodents, amphibians, and soil invertebrates. It is shown that, against the background of decreasing total abundance and biomass of animals, their formerly continuous ranges become mosaic, with the locally increasing animal density and heterogeneity and specific population dynamics. Species diversity decreases; however, species alien to the natural ecosystems of the given territory appear. Changes in the strategies of reproduction and food resource use were revealed in the species communities of small mammals and amphibians.     

长江三角洲城市群人为热排放特征研究

基于常规可获取的能源、交通、人口等统计资料,利用“自上而下”的能源清单法,研究了2010年长江三角洲(以下简称“长三角”)城市群地区各类人为热排放量及其时空分布特征.结果表明:该地区人为热排放总量为1.4′1019J/a,其中工业、交通、建筑、新陈代谢分别占75.1%、12.5%、9.9%和2.5%.上海、苏州、无锡、杭州和南京五个城市的人为热排放总量约占研究区域总量的71%.长三角城市群的人为热年平均排放通量为5.3W/m2,大部分地区介于5~30W/m2,城市高值区一般介于20~70W/m2,上海明显高于其他城市.为方便有关环境气候模式的输入,本文提供了人为热排放的网格化空间分布和简单的时间变化廓线.     

Characterization of chemical species in universal sampler (PM2.5 and PM2.5–10) aerosols in suburban area of central Taiwan

Aerosol samples of particulate and chemical species for PM₁₀ (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters less than 10 μm) collected by Universal sampler were studied from June to August 1998 in the suburban area of central Taiwan. The ratios of PM_2.5/PM_2.5–10 displayed that the fine particles (particle size < 2.5 μm) are prevailing in the suburban site. Ion Chromatography was used to analyze for the water‐soluble ions: sulphate and nitrate in the Universal samples. Also, the collected samples were analyzed by atomic absorption spectrophotometry for the elemental analysis of Ca, Fe, Pb, Cu and Cr. The results indicated that the crustal elements (Ca and Fe) and resuspended matters were dominated in the coarse particulate mode while the anthropogenic elements (Cr, Pb, Cu) and sulphate components are mainly in the fine particle fraction. The results also showed that the sulphate and nitrate make the largest portion of the chemical species collected by Universal sampler (PMio). The concentrations of heavy metals in THU are generally high, owing to the higher motor vehicle and industrial density nearby. The degree of pollution from this source differs from day to day, depending on the motor vehicle density.     

我国空气污染物人为源排放清单对比

空气污染物排放清单是影响数值模式结果准确性的关键因子之一. 定义不同排放清单中同一污染物排放量最大值与最小值之差与平均值的比值为差异度,对比分析了4个国内外广泛应用的人为污染源排放清单(TRACE-P、INTEX-B、REAS1.1和REAS2.0). 结果表明:INTEX-B、REAS1.1和REAS2.0清单中给出的2006—2007年我国(不包括港澳台地区数据)SO₂排放量差异度为12%,而在SO₂排放量较大的省份(如山东、河北和河南等)差异度达30%以上; NO_x和NMVOC(非甲烷挥发性有机物)的排放量差异度分别为51%和30%,在山东、江苏、浙江、北京和上海等经济较发达地区的差异度达到20%~80%. 相对于2000年的排放清单,2006—2007年排放清单各污染物的排放量增长明显,SO₂、NO_x和NMVOC的排放量在INTEX-B、REAS1.1和REAS2.0清单中的平均值分别为TRACE-P清单的1.6、1.9和1.5倍. 近年来经济的高速发展、能源消耗的增长和空气污染控制技术的应用等都会影响人为活动水平和排放因子的选取,这也是造成排放清单间存在差异的主要原因.      

珠三角地区人为热排放演变趋势及不确定性分析

人类生产生活中产生的大量废热对城市环境中的温度、城市边界层结构、空气质量及人类健康都有着重要的影响.然而目前人为热排放清单的计算方法存在所需基础资料种类繁多、计算过程复杂,空间分布和排放量有较大偏差等不足.本研究采用统计回归法基于CO和NO_x污染源清单计算了2007—2015年珠江三角洲地区的人为热排放清单,对其排放趋势、热排放来源类型变化以及空间格局的演变进行了梳理.结果表明：2007—2015年珠三角地区年平均人为热均大于9 W·m^-2,人为热排放峰值出现在2010年,趋势为先增加后减少,这与燃料消耗总量的变化趋势基本一致,而工业源和道路移动源是影响人为热排放总量变化的最大因素：2007—2015年珠三角地区大部分区域人为热排放处于0~20 W·m^-2,高值区（>20 W·m^-2）主要分布于珠三角地区中心地带的城市群,高值区缩减的面积和速度在2010—2012年期间达到最大.进一步对2012年人为热清单的不确定性分析表明：总人为热的95%置信区间的不确定性为-16%~49%,其中电厂类别排放估算中的不确定性最小,为-13%~16%,而工业源的不确定性最高,为-46%~73%.