Poland’s environment - past,present and future state of the environment in the vistula and odra river basins

In the middle of the last century in the case of many river basins, it became obvious that the targets of the Helsinki-Commission (HELCOM) concerning a 50% reduction of nitrogen and phosphorus inputs to the Baltic Sea had not been reached. Such conclusions could be derived from the observed loads. But the measurements regarding the analysis were not sufficient to determine what the reasons for this report were, what has to be done to fulfil this agreement and to evaluate the time at which the targets can be reached. This contribution presents the current state of Polish surface water quality as well as results of modelling nutrient and heavy metal emissions into the two biggest Polish river basins: Vistula and Odra, which both cover approximately 90% of Poland's territory.     

Integrating models to predict regional haze from wildland fire

Visibility impairment from regional haze is a significant problem throughout the continental United States. A substantial portion of regional haze is produced by smoke from prescribed and wildland fires. Here we describe the integration of four simulation models, an array of GIS raster layers, and a set of algorithms for fire-danger calculations into a modeling framework for simulating regional-scale smoke dispersion. We focus on a representative fire season (2003) in the northwestern USA, on a 12 km domain, and track the simulated dispersion and concentration of PM_2.5 over the course of the season. Simulated visibility reductions over national parks and wilderness areas are within the ranges of measured values at selected monitoring sites, although the magnitudes of peak events are underestimated because these include inputs other than fire. By linking the spatial and temporal patterns of haze-producing emissions to climatic variability, particularly synoptic weather patterns, and the stochastic nature of fire occurrence across the region, we can provide a robust method for estimating the quantity and distribution of fire-caused regional haze under climate-warming scenarios.     

Prospects for mitigating carbon,conserving biodiversity,and promoting socioeconomic development objectives through the clean development mechanism

Should forest-based climate mitigationmeasures be approved for crediting through the CleanDevelopment Mechanism (CDM), they could offer anopportunity to accomplish three important objectives:cost-effective reductions in carbon emissions andsequestration of atmospheric carbon; conservation andrestoration of forests and their biological diversity;and, the assistance of host countries and communitiesin their socioeconomic development. However,prospective investors in CDM projects, host countriesand other CDM `stakeholders' might be expected toplace widely different priorities on achieving theseobjectives. This paper describes several factors thatwill affect investor interest in CDM projects, thecharacteristics of forest-based CDM projects that willattract investments, and an approach to identifyingprojects that meet the key objectives of multiplestakeholders. This approach entails identifyingsites, such as degraded watersheds, where CDMfinancing for forest conservation and restoration cangenerate readily monetizable local and regionalsocioeconomic benefits, while mitigating carbonemissions in forests with importance for conservingbiodiversity.     

The role of CH4 and N2O emission reductions in the cost-effective control of the greenhouse gas emissions from Finland

The reduction of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions may be quite expensive and it is necessary to consider reduction measures for other anthropogenic greenhouse gases, such as methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) as well. Their contribution to the total GHG emission from Finland is about 15–20%. In Finland most of the CH₄ emissions are due to waste management, agriculture and burning processes. N₂O emissions originate from burning processes, agriculture, industry and atmospheric deposition of nitrogen. The cost-effective reduction of the Finnish GHG emissions has been studied with the EFOM-ENV model, which is a quasi-dynamic linear energy system optimisation model. The target function to be minimised is the total discounted cost for the modelled system. In this study the model has been expanded to cover all well-known anthropogenic CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O sources and reduction measures. The results indicate it is economic to reduce the emissions of CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O in Finland. It is profitable to exploit the economic reduction potential of CH₄ and N₂O, because then the abatement of CO₂ emissions does not need to be as extensive as when the reduction is aimed only at CO₂ emissions. The inclusion of CH₄ and N₂O decreases the annual reduction costs about 20% in the year 2010.     

Origins of black carbon from anthropogenic emissions and open biomass burning transported to Xishuangbanna, Southwest China

Black carbon (BC) has importance regarding aerosol composition, radiative balance, and human exposure. This study adopted a backward-trajectory approach to quantify the origins of BC from anthropogenic emissions ($\mathrm{B}{\mathrm{C}}_{\text{An}}$) and open biomass burning ($\mathrm{B}{\mathrm{C}}_{\text{BB}}$) transported to Xishuangbanna in 2017. Haze months, between haze and clean months, and clean months in Xishuangbanna were defined according to daily PM_2.5 concentrations of >75, 35–75, and <35 µg/m³, respectively. Results showed that the transport efficiency density (TED) of BC transported to Xishuangbanna was controlled by the prevailing winds in different seasons. The yearly contributions to the effective emission intensity of $\mathrm{B}{\mathrm{C}}_{\text{An}}$ and $\mathrm{B}{\mathrm{C}}_{\text{BB}}$ transported to Xishuangbanna were 52% and 48%, respectively. However, when haze occurred in Xishuangbanna, the average $\mathrm{B}{\mathrm{C}}_{\text{An}}$ and $\mathrm{B}{\mathrm{C}}_{\text{BB}}$ contributions were 23% and 77%, respectively. This suggests that open biomass burning (BB) becomes the dominant source in haze months. Myanmar, India, and Laos were the dominant source regions of BC transported to Xishuangbanna during haze months, accounting for 59%, 18%, and 13% of the total, respectively. Furthermore, India was identified as the most important source regions of $\mathrm{B}{\mathrm{C}}_{\text{An}}$ transported to Xishuangbanna in haze months, accounting for 14%. The two countries making the greatest contributions to $\mathrm{B}{\mathrm{C}}_{\text{BB}}$ transported to Xishuangbanna were Myanmar and Laos in haze months, accounting for 55% and 13%, respectively. BC emissions from Xishuangbanna had minimal effects on the results of the present study. It is suggested that open BB in Myanmar and Laos, and anthropogenic emissions in India were responsible for poor air quality in Xishuangbanna.     

基于DMSP/OLS数据的中国碳排放时空模拟与分异格局

精准模拟和精细尺度获取碳排放的时空动态信息，对于合理制定差别化的区域碳减排政策具有重要意义.利用DMSP/OLS夜间灯光数据在完成年内和跨年数据的校正、像元去饱和、异常值剔除的基础上，提取了城市建成区范围，并以中国大陆为研究对象，根据夜间灯光数据和碳排放统计数据之间的定量关联，构建面板数据模型模拟了2000~2013年中国的碳排放量；采用Theil-Sen Median趋势分析方法与Mann-Kendall检验，探讨了14年间中国碳排放量的时空变化趋势及空间分布特征.结果表明：系统校正后的DMSP/OLS夜间灯光影像构建面板模型模拟的碳排放量拟合精度较高，2002，2007和2012年多尺度回归检验的决定系数R²值分别为0.893，0.955和0.951.2000~2013年中国碳排放时空演化差异显著，稳慢增长型和迅猛增长型分别占碳排放区域总面积的77.6%和19.4%，稳慢增长型面域宽广，迅猛增长型主要位于都市区及都市连绵区.受城市规模及城市化发育程度的影响，迅猛增长型空间结构呈"空心型"与"中心型"空间指向性分异.研究提出，促进经济增长方式和发展模式的实质性转变、因地制宜差别化的减排措施与省区联动策略的实施是"精准减排"目标实现的重要途径.     

风浪流影响下的船舶废气排放测度模型研究

船舶速度是船舶废气排放量计算的重要影响因子。为更加准确地测度船舶废气排放量,考虑海洋环境场对船舶速度的影响,分析了风、浪、流影响下的船舶运动,利用获取的实时风、浪、流信息对船舶AIS提供的航速进行修正,在此基础上建立了风、浪、流影响下的船舶废气排放测度模型,并介绍了船舶引擎功率的估算方法,以及排放因子和负荷因子的确定。最后,选取某散货船和客滚船的两个航次,分别采用传统模型和风、浪、流影响下的船舶废气排放计算模型进行计算,以CO2排放量反推油耗,并计算其与实际油耗的误差,结果表明,与传统模型计算结果相比,基于风、浪、流影响下的船舶废气排放测度模型得到的误差均有所减小,分别减小16.90%、18.60%、21.59%、21.94%,验证了模型的有效性。     

人为热对广州高温天气影响的数值模拟个例分析

基于广州市2009,2000和1990年工业、交通、生活能源统计数据,通过能源清单法估算出广州市对应年份的人为热排放量,再通过在WRF模式中引入2009,2000和1990年的下垫面数据和人为热排放方案,对2005,2012和2017年广州市的3次持续高温过程进行模拟,从而评估不同年代人为热排放水平对广州市极端高温天气的影响.结果表明,模拟的2m气温较为准确,能合理模拟出城市地区的热岛效应,但对极端高温的模拟略有偏低,而引入人为热有助于改善模拟结果.在case2012中,2009,2000和1990年3种人为热排放水平使广州城市下垫面的平均气温分别上升0.53,0.44和0.13℃,热岛强度增强0.43,0.38和0.13℃.3个模拟个例的结果均表明,日间的人为热排放比夜间大,但夜间气温及热岛强度的变化比日间要明显.     

Characterization of VOC emissions from construction machinery and river ships in the Pearl River Delta of China

Speciated characterization of Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs), including oxygenated VOCs (OVOCs), from construction machinery and river ships in China is currently lacking. In this regard, we conducted field measurement on speciated VOC (including OVOC) emissions from six construction machinery and five river ships in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region to identify VOC emission characteristics. We noticed that OVOC emissions from construction machinery and ships accounted for more than 50% of the total VOC emissions, followed by alkenes, aromatics and alkanes. Formaldehyde and acetaldehyde were the most emission species, accounting for 61.8%-83.2% of OVOCs. For construction machinery, the fuel-based emission factors of roller, grader and pile driver were 3.12, 3.12 and 7.36 g/kg, respectively. With the rigorous restraint by the national emission standards, VOC emissions of construction machinery had decreased considerably, especially during stage Ⅲ. Ozone formation potential was also significantly reduced due to the significant decrease in emissions of OVOCs and alkenes with higher reactivity. For river ships, the fuel-based emission factors of cargo ships and speedboat were 1.46 and 0.44 g/kg, respectively. VOC emissions from construction machinery and river ships in Guangdong Province in 2017 were 8851.0 and 4361.0 ton, respectively. This study filled the knowledge gaps of reactive gas emissions from different kinds of non-road mobile sources over the PRD, and more importantly, highlighted the necessity in adding OVOC measurement to give a complete and accurate depiction of reactive gas emissions from non-road mobile sources.     

光伏行业生命周期碳排放清单分析

本研究建立了光伏行业生命周期碳排放清单,并在处置阶段对不同处置情景的碳排放进行比较.通过现场、资料调研和工艺研发应用的方式,获得光伏行业生产、使用、处置阶段及三个情景的资源、能源的输入/输出和污染物排放数据.结果表明：光伏行业碳排放集中在生产阶段,其中又以高纯多晶硅生产过程的碳排放最高;使用阶段碳排放较小,仅为生产阶段的3%;电耗是最主要的碳排放因素,占生产和使用阶段碳排放的64.98%.处置阶段的3种情景的碳排放由大到小依次是填埋 > 拆解 > 热解,除了填埋略微增加碳排放外,拆解和热解都能显著降低行业碳排放,可分别降低6.03%和33.59%.研究显示采用热解回收技术的光伏组件生命周期单位发电量碳排放强度,不仅低于同类研究,还远低于我国当前电力结构的碳排放水平,发展光伏行业可实现环境与能源双赢.