改进的TLI指数法及其在巢湖营养状态评价中的应用

对巢湖2000—2008年的监测数据运用SPSS做统计分析,得出叶绿素a与总氮、总磷和透明度的相关系数。通过得出的权重结果,分析出与26个湖泊的差异性,构建了改进的综合营养状态指数(TLI)评价方法,并提出评价的4个步骤。以巢湖为例,运用该方法对湖泊的营养状态进行评价,且对巢湖的富营养化程度做了年际和年内变化的综合评价,评价结果显示各营养物指标的相关关系在近30年有了较大变化,巢湖的富营养化现象已日益严重,已从轻度富营养化状态转变为中度富营养化状态。     

Increased Bioavailability of Mercury in the Lagoons of Lomé, Togo: The Possible Role of Dredging

Surface sediments of the lagoons of Lomé, Togo, were analyzed for mercury, methylmercury, and trace elements. Concentrations were greater than typical for natural lagoon sediments, and with greater variability within the Eastern lagoon compared to the Western one. The Eastern lagoon is larger and has been dredged in the past, while the Western lagoon, which also receives major waste inputs, has not been dredged and shows less tidal flushing. Accordingly, one naturally believes that the Eastern lagoon is cleaner and probably safe to use due to its natural resources, including fishes to eat. Unexpectedly, we describe here that mercury methylation was greater in the Eastern lagoon, indicating increased bioavailability of mercury, as probably facilitated by past dredging that decreased solid-phase retention of inorganic mercury. Urbanization has historically been more developed in the southern part of the lagoons, which is still reflected in contamination levels of sediment despite dredging, probably because sources of contamination are still more important there today. Such urban contamination emphasizes the need to regulate waste discharges and possible airborne contamination in growing cities of developing countries, and implements environmental and public health monitoring, especially in relation to misbelieves systematically associated with the cleansing effect of dredging activity.     

Global Urban Growth and the Geography of Water Availability,Quality, and Delivery

Globally, urban growth will add 1.5 billion people to cities by 2030, making the difficult task of urban water provisions even more challenging. In this article, we develop a conceptual framework of urban water provision as composed of three axes: water availability, water quality, and water delivery. For each axis, we calculate quantitative proxy measures for all cities with more than 50,000 residents, and then briefly discuss the strategies cities are using in response if they are deficient on one of the axes. We show that 523 million people are in cities where water availability may be an issue, 890 million people are in cities where water quality may be an issue, and 1.3 billion people are in cities where water delivery may be an issue. Tapping into groundwater is a widespread response, regardless of the management challenge, with many cities unsustainably using this resource. The strategies used by cities deficient on the water delivery axis are different than for cities deficient on the water quantity or water quality axis, as lack of financial resources pushes cities toward a different and potentially less effective set of strategies.     

Terrestrial exposure of oilfield flowline additives diminish soil structural stability and remediative microbial function

Onshore oil production pipelines are major installations in the petroleum industry, stretching many thousands of kilometres worldwide which also contain flowline additives. The current study focuses on the effect of the flowline additives on soil physico-chemical and biological properties and quantified the impact using resilience and resistance indices. Our findings are the first to highlight deleterious effect of flowline additives by altering some fundamental soil properties, including a complete loss of structural integrity of the impacted soil and a reduced capacity to degrade hydrocarbons mainly due to: (i) phosphonate salts (in scale inhibitor) prevented accumulation of scale in pipelines but also disrupted soil physical structure; (ii) glutaraldehyde (in biocides) which repressed microbial activity in the pipeline and reduced hydrocarbon degradation in soil upon environmental exposure; (iii) the combinatory effects of these two chemicals synergistically caused severe soil structural collapse and disruption of microbial degradation of petroleum hydrocarbons.     

中国农产品虚拟耕地与资源环境经济要素的时空匹配分析

计算出1999~2009年中国各地区农产品虚拟耕地与人口、水资源、耕地资源、水土流失治理以及GDP等要素的基尼系数以及全国8大区域2009年农产品虚拟耕地 资源环境经济要素的不平衡指数。结果表明：(1）我国农产品虚拟耕地与各资源环境经济要素的地域分布匹配程度都不高;其中农产品虚拟耕地与人口、耕地的地域匹配程度相对较高,与水土流失治理之间的地域匹配状况次之,与GDP和水资源的地域匹配程度相对较低;(2）我国农产品虚拟耕地与各资源环境经济要素的外部公平性不高,黄淮海地区为农产品虚拟耕地 资源环境经济要素不公平性最突出地区,其次是华南、西北和东北地区     

山区沿河公路水毁危险性评价方法的研究

为了预测评价山区沿河公路水毁灾害,通过理论分析和专家系统调查,阐明了沿河公路水毁危险性的含义,确定了其主要危险因子(洪水流量、水位、流速)和次要危险因子(洪水持续时间、河流形态)。运用灰色系统的关联度方法,根据关联序确定了各危险因子的权重;在因子等级划分的基础上,提出了沿河公路水毁危险性指数的计算方法,并在工程中得到了应用。研究成果可供沿河公路水毁易发段危险性点及整个路段的评价参考。     

城市灾害易损性及其评价指标

城市化的加速使城市成为国民经济和社会发展的重要区域,同时灾害给城市发展造成了巨大的损失。通过分析易损性的维度和时空性,并在总结多因子复合函数方法、模糊综合评价方法、数据包络分析方法等易损性研究方法的基础上,结合复杂的城市系统的内部特征,从人口易损性、经济易损性、社会易损性和生态环境易损性4个方面建立适合城市灾害易损性评价的框架;探讨了包括人口迁入率和经济密度等11个城市灾害易损性指标体系。最后指出城市灾害易损性研究对城市可持续发展有重要意义。     

东北玉米低温冷害时空分布与多时间尺度变化规律分析

利用东北地区48个农业气象观测站1961-2010年逐日温度资料和近20多年玉米生育期资料,基于热量指数构建生育阶段冷害指数,采用EOF分析、Mann-Kendall法、子波变换等方法系统分析了近50年东北玉米4个生育阶段低温冷害时空分布及周期特征。结果表明:整个生育期全区平均冷害强度呈极显著的减弱趋势,地区间冷害变化趋势呈现差异化特征,冷害强度减弱趋势由西南向东北方向呈阶梯状递增;4个生育阶段冷害指数EOF第一模态均呈冷害空间变化趋势一致的特征;冷害强度呈较明显的减弱趋势,第1到第4生育阶段减弱趋势逐渐增大,突变均发生在1990年代中期;冷害强度具有较强的周期性,出苗—七叶、出苗—抽雄存在明显的23、25年周期,出苗—乳熟、出苗—成熟均具有较明显的3年周期振荡。     

G2京津塘高速公路万辆车流的交通事故灾害与气象综合指数的关系

通过整理G2京津塘高速公路3年(2007年3月至2010年2月)逐日逐时万辆车流的交通事故灾害和交通流量及气象要素资料,并将万辆车流的交通事故灾害(交通事故灾害与交通流量之商)与同步气象综合指数进行日变化相关分析;结果表明:平均万辆车流的交通事故灾害的日变化最高峰出现在05时,年平均高峰值高达2.34起·辆-1·10-4;年度、春季、夏季、秋季和冬季的平均万辆车流的交通事故灾害与同步气象综合指数均呈正抛物线的偏右侧相关,即万辆车流的交通事故灾害随气象综合指数的加大而增多;统计学检验(R＞Rα=0.01和F＞Fa=0.01)效果很好.四个季节的万辆车流的交通事故灾害与气象综合指数相关的系数高达0.7781～0.8537.为了更好地将自动气象监测信息服务于高速公路交通安全,在分析成果的基础上设计出了高速公路万辆车流的交通事故灾害的气象综合指数风险等级指标,以期为高速公路交通安全提供客观的科学依据.     

辽西北地区农业干旱灾害风险评价与风险区划研究

以辽西北29个农业县(市、区)为研究区域,选取辽西北最主要的玉米作物作为研究对象,从造成农业干旱灾害的致灾因子危险性、承灾体暴露性、脆弱性和抗旱减灾能力4个方面着手,利用自然灾害风险指数法、加权综合评价法和层次分析法,建立了农业干旱灾害风险指数(ADRI),用以表征农业干旱灾害风险程度;借助GIS技术,绘制辽西北农业干旱灾害风险评价区划图,将风险评价区划图与2006年辽西北受干旱影响粮食减产系数区划图对比,发现两者可以较好的匹配。研究结果可为当地农业干旱灾害预警、保险,以及有关部门的旱灾管理、减灾决策制定提供理论依据和指导。