Will progress in science and technology avert or accelerate global collapse? A critical analysis and policy recommendations

Industrial society will move towards collapse if its total environmental impact (I), expressed either in terms of energy and materials use or in terms of pollution, increases with time, i.e., dI/dt > 0. The traditional interpretation of the I = PAT equation reflects the optimistic belief that technological innovation, particularly improvements in eco-efficiency, will significantly reduce the technology (T) factor, and thereby result in a corresponding decline in impact (I). Unfortunately, this interpretation of the I = PAT equation ignores the effects of technological change on the other two factors: population (P) and per capita affluence (A). A more heuristic formulation of this equation is I = P(T)·A(T)·T in which the dependence of P and A on T is apparent. From historical evidence, it is clear that technological revolutions (tool-making, agricultural, and industrial) have been the primary driving forces behind successive population explosions, and that modern communication and transportation technologies have been employed to transform a large proportion of the world’s inhabitants into consumers of material- and energy-intensive products and services. In addition, factor analysis from neoclassical growth theory and the rebound effect provide evidence that science and technology have played a key role in contributing to rising living standards. While technological change has thus contributed to significant increases in both P and A, it has at the same time brought about considerable eco-efficiency improvements. Unfortunately, reductions in the T-factor have generally not been sufficiently rapid to compensate for the simultaneous increases in both P and A. As a result, total impact, in terms of energy production, mineral extraction, land-use and CO₂ emissions, has in most cases increased with time, indicating that industrial society is nevertheless moving towards collapse. The belief that continued and even accelerated scientific research and technological innovation will automatically result in sustainability and avert collapse is at best mistaken. Innovations in science and technology will be necessary but alone will be insufficient for sustainability. Consequently, what is most needed are specific policies designed to decrease total impact, such as (a) halting population growth via effective population stabilization plans and better access to birth control methods, (b) reducing total matter-energy throughput and pollution by removing perverse subsidies, imposing regulations that limit waste discharges and the depletion of non-renewable resources, and implementing ecological tax reform, and (c) moving towards a steady-state economy in which per-capita affluence is stabilized at lower levels by replacing wasteful conspicuous material consumption with social alternatives known to enhance subjective well-being. While science and technology must play an important role in the implementation of these policies, none will be enacted without a fundamental change in society’s dominant values of growth and exploitation. Thus, value change is the most important prerequisite for avoiding global collapse.

On adaptations of trees and shrubs in the north of the Russian Far East

Specific ecological features of trees (Chosenia arbutifolia and Betula lanata) and shrubs (Pinus pumila and Duschekia fruticosa) at the northern limit of their distribution are compared. New biomorphological adaptations of these species under extreme conditions are described.     

Assessing the impacts of mountain biking and hiking on subalpine grassland in Australia using an experimental protocol

Mountain biking is an increasingly popular, but sometimes controversial, activity in protected areas. Limited research on its impacts, including studies comparing biking with hiking, contributes to the challenges for mangers in assessing its appropriateness. The impacts of mountain bike riding off trail were compared to those of hiking on subalpine grassland in Australia using a modification of a common trampling experimental methodology. Vegetation and soil parameters were measured immediately and two weeks after different intensities of mountain biking (none, 25, 75, 200 and 500 passes across slope, 200 pass up and down slope) and hiking (200 and 500 passes across slope). There were reductions in vegetation height, cover and species richness, as well as changes in species composition and increases in litter and soil compaction with riding. Riding up and down a moderate slope had a greater impact than riding across the slope. Hiking also affected vegetation height, cover and composition. Mountain biking caused more damage than hiking but only at high use (500 passes). Further research including other ecosystems, topography, styles of riding, and weather conditions are required, but under the conditions tested here, hiking and mountain biking appear to be similar in their environmental impacts.     

遥感技术在矿区生态环境评价中的应用

利用遥感技术对矿区生态环境进行评价是一种新兴的、快速有效的方法.选取肥城矿区为研究区,利用Landsat ETM+遥感影像,通过计算机自动计算与手工屏幕矢量化相结合的方式进行遥感信息提取,统计出肥城矿区各土地利用类型的面积和河流长度.根据统计信息计算各类生态指数,对肥城矿区进行生态环境评价.评价结果显示,肥城矿区生态环境等级为良,基本适合人类生存.     

Identifying 120 years of decline in ecosystem structure and maturity of Great South Bay, New York using the Ecopath modelling approach

Mass balanced models yield valuable information regarding ecological function and delivery of ecosystem services, but often rely on data collected well before many species were reduced to fractions of their original abundance. Lagoonal systems, such as Great South Bay (GSB), NY, sit on the interface of terrestrial and marine ecosystems and are prone to anthropogenic stressors but proximity to land also makes the presence of data regarding historic populations and structure more likely. To quantify over a century of ecosystem change, Ecopath models were developed for GSB at each of four time periods where commercial and scientific data exist: 1880s, 1930s, 1980s and 2000s. The results indicated that the GSB has experienced a decline in ecosystem maturity, loss of top keystone predators, a decline in connectivity to the ocean though the reduction of migratory species and increasing dominance of low trophic level organisms. These changes undermine the delivery of ecosystem services, increase conflicts over limited resources and suggest that present day restoration targets fail to recognize appropriate baselines. We discuss the role of stochastic events, which result in state changes that could be defined as regime shifts, and ecosystem connectivity to the long-term stability of lagoonal systems.     

Ecosystem states: Creating a data-derived, ecosystem-scale ecological response model that is explicit in space and time

Increasing difficulties associated with balancing consumptive demands for water and achieving ecological benefits in aquatic ecosystems provide opportunities for new ecosystem-scale ecological response models to assist managers. Using an Australian estuary as a case study, we developed a novel approach to create a data-derived state-and-transition model. The model identifies suites of co-occurring birds, fish, benthic invertebrates and aquatic macrophytes (as ‘states’) and the changing physico-chemical conditions that are associated with each (‘transitions’). The approach first used cluster analysis to identify sets of co-occurring biota. Differences in the physico-chemical data associated with each state were identified using classification trees, with the biotic distinctness of the resultant statistical model tested using analysis of similarities. The predictive capacity of the model was tested using new cases. Two models were created using different time-steps (annual and quarterly) and then combined to capture both longer-term trends and more-recent declines in ecological condition. We identified eight ecosystem states that were differentiated by a mix of water-quantity and water-quality variables. Each ecosystem state represented a distinct biotic assemblage under well-defined physico-chemical conditions. Two ‘basins of attraction’ were identified, with four tidally-influenced states, and another four independent of tidal influence. Within each basin, states described a continuum of relative health, manifest through declining taxonomic diversity and abundances. The main threshold determining relative health was whether freshwater flows had occurred in the region during the previous 339 days. Canonical analyses of principal coordinates tested the predictive capacity of the model and demonstrated that the variance in the environmental data set was well captured (87%) with 52% of the variance in the biological data set also captured. The latter increased to >80% when long- and short-term biological data were analysed separately, indicating that the model described the available data for the Coorong well. This approach thus created a data-derived, multivariate model, where neither states nor transitions were determined a priori. The approach did not over-fit the data, was robust to patchy or missing data, the choice of initial clustering technique and random errors in the biological data set, and was well-received by local natural resource managers. However, the model did not capture causal relationships and requires additional testing, particularly during future episodes of ecological recovery. The approach shows significant promise for simplifying management definitions of ecological condition and, via scenario analyses, can be used to assist in manager decision-making of large, complex aquatic ecosystems in the future.     

Human Impacts to River Temperature and Their Effects on Biological Processes: A Quantitative Synthesis1

Hester, Erich T. and Martin W. Doyle, 2011. Human Impacts to River Temperature and Their Effects on Biological Processes: A Quantitative Synthesis. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(3):571‐587. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00525.x Abstract: Land‐use change and water resources management increasingly impact stream and river temperatures and therefore aquatic organisms. Efforts at thermal mitigation are expected to grow in future decades. Yet the biological consequences of both human thermal impacts and proposed mitigation options are poorly quantified. This study provides such context for river thermal management in two ways. First, we summarize the full spectrum of human thermal impacts to help thermal managers consider the relative magnitudes of all impacts and mitigation options. Second, we synthesize biological sensitivity to river temperature shifts using thermal performance curves, which relate organism‐level biological processes to temperature. This approach supplements the popular use of thermal thresholds by directly estimating the impact of temperature shifts on the rates of key biological processes (e.g., growth). Our results quantify a diverse array of human thermal impacts, revealing that human actions tend to increase more than decrease river temperatures. Our results also provide a practical framework in which to quantify the sensitivity of river organisms to such impacts and related mitigation options. Finally, among the data and studies we synthesized, river organisms appear to be more sensitive to temperature above than below their thermal maxima, and fish are more sensitive to temperature change than invertebrates.     

气相色谱-质谱联用测定水产品中的合成麝香

利用快速溶剂萃取（ASE）和在线吸附净化,气相色谱-质谱（GC/MS）联用测定水产品中8种合成麝香.以正己烷为萃取溶剂,中性氧化铝为吸附剂,在100℃的温度下对水产品进行萃取.实验结果表明,方法的检测限为0.1—0.5 ng·g-1;在浓度1—80 ng·g-1的范围内,峰面积与样品浓度呈良好线性关系;8种合成麝香的回...     

The role of sponge competition on coral reef alternative steady states

Sponges constitute an abundant and functionally important component of coral reef systems. Given their demonstrated resistance to environmental stress, it might be expected that the role of sponges in reef systems under modern regimes of frequent and severe disturbance may become even more substantial. Disturbances have recently reshaped the community structure of many Caribbean coral reefs shifting them towards a state of persistent low coral cover and often a dominance of macroalgae. Using competition and growth rates recorded from Glover's Atoll in Belize, we parameterise a mathematical model used to simulate the three-way competition between sponges, macroalgae and coral. We use the model to determine the range of parameters in which each of the three species might be expected to dominate. Emergent properties arise from our simple model of this complex system, and these include a special case in which heightened competitive ability of macroalgae versus coral may counter-intuitively prove to be advantageous to the persistence of corals. Importantly, we show that even under scenarios whereby sponges fail to invade the system, inclusion of this third antagonist can qualitatively affect the likelihood of alternative stable states - generally in favour of macroalgal dominance. The interplay between multi-species competition and predation is complex, but our efforts highlight a key process that has, until now, remained unexplored: the extent to which sponges dissipate algal grazing pressure by providing generalist fish with an alternative food source. We highlight the necessity of identifying the extent by which this process takes place in tropical systems in order to improve projections of alternative stable states for Caribbean coral reefs.     

国际生态学研究发展态势文献计量分析

目前,全球的生态环境问题已经引起了各国政府和人民的高度关注,而生态学研究可以为人类与自然生态系统的共存提供理论依据和行动指南。利用Thomson Data Analyzer、NetDraw和Aureka等分析工具,结合Pathfinder算法,对SCIE和SSCI数据库中国际生态学研究相关文献进行统计分析,发现：北美、欧洲、澳大利亚等国及其研究机构在生态学领域的论文影响力较大,论文质量较高;美国是全球生态学研究合作网络的中心,其次是英国和德国;在机构层面上,加州大学戴维斯分校和马普学会是两个比较明显的合作中心;我国在生态学研究领域发文量上具有一定的优势,但论文总体质量仍有待继续提高,目前我国在生态学领域的主要合作国家有美国、英国、加拿大、德国、日本、澳大利亚和法国;2008—2010年国际生态学研究热点主要集中在生物多样性、气候变化、基因变异、物种间相互作用和性选择等研究领域。