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91.
Michael H. Huesemann Joyce A. Huesemann 《Environment, Development and Sustainability》2008,10(6):787-825
Industrial society will move towards collapse if its total environmental impact (I), expressed either in terms of energy and
materials use or in terms of pollution, increases with time, i.e., dI/dt > 0. The traditional interpretation of the I = PAT
equation reflects the optimistic belief that technological innovation, particularly improvements in eco-efficiency, will significantly
reduce the technology (T) factor, and thereby result in a corresponding decline in impact (I). Unfortunately, this interpretation
of the I = PAT equation ignores the effects of technological change on the other two factors: population (P) and per capita
affluence (A). A more heuristic formulation of this equation is I = P(T)·A(T)·T in which the dependence of P and A on T is
apparent. From historical evidence, it is clear that technological revolutions (tool-making, agricultural, and industrial)
have been the primary driving forces behind successive population explosions, and that modern communication and transportation
technologies have been employed to transform a large proportion of the world’s inhabitants into consumers of material- and
energy-intensive products and services. In addition, factor analysis from neoclassical growth theory and the rebound effect
provide evidence that science and technology have played a key role in contributing to rising living standards. While technological
change has thus contributed to significant increases in both P and A, it has at the same time brought about considerable eco-efficiency
improvements. Unfortunately, reductions in the T-factor have generally not been sufficiently rapid to compensate for the simultaneous
increases in both P and A. As a result, total impact, in terms of energy production, mineral extraction, land-use and CO2 emissions, has in most cases increased with time, indicating that industrial society is nevertheless moving towards collapse.
The belief that continued and even accelerated scientific research and technological innovation will automatically result
in sustainability and avert collapse is at best mistaken. Innovations in science and technology will be necessary but alone
will be insufficient for sustainability. Consequently, what is most needed are specific policies designed to decrease total
impact, such as (a) halting population growth via effective population stabilization plans and better access to birth control
methods, (b) reducing total matter-energy throughput and pollution by removing perverse subsidies, imposing regulations that
limit waste discharges and the depletion of non-renewable resources, and implementing ecological tax reform, and (c) moving
towards a steady-state economy in which per-capita affluence is stabilized at lower levels by replacing wasteful conspicuous
material consumption with social alternatives known to enhance subjective well-being. While science and technology must play
an important role in the implementation of these policies, none will be enacted without a fundamental change in society’s
dominant values of growth and exploitation. Thus, value change is the most important prerequisite for avoiding global collapse.
相似文献
Michael H. HuesemannEmail: |
92.
Kan Zhou 《中国人口.资源与环境(英文版)》2013,11(4):301-308
Rural human settlement is a significant indicator of the living standards of rural residents, and its improvement can contribute to promoting the positive interaction between inhabited environment and the social, economic, and resource environment in the countryside. Based on 557 valid questionnaires of satisfaction evaluation of human settlement in the peripheral metropolitan area of Beijing, this paper analyzed the elemental characteristics and factors influencing human settlement quality using multivariate statistical analysis and a structural equation model. The result shows that, first, the rural residents in a peripheral metropolitan area of Beijing are generally satisfied with the quality of human settlement (satisfaction rate is 66.2%). Specifically, the natural and social environment of the countryside is excellent and harmonious and corresponding standard of countryside infrastructure is advanced, but the quality of public services and follow-up management of facilities are in urgent need of improvement and the imbalance between revenue and expenditure of rural households has led to a continuous increase in the pressures of life. Second, factors such as social atmosphere, appearance of the village, entertainment, living costs, fundamental public services, and production costs have significant effects on human settlement quality in this peripheral metropolitan area, with social atmosphere as the main one. Living costs and supporting services are the main constraints to improvement in the quality of human settlement. 相似文献
93.
Abstract The aim of this article is to develop a structural equation model to assess key factors of residents’ support for hosting mega event based on previous literature. The model consisted of five latent constructs and eight path hypotheses. A survey was conducted in Shanghai before 2010 World Expo. It was found that the support for mega events is affected directly and/or indirectly by four determinants factors: perceived benefits, perceived costs, personal benefits and community attachment, and support relies heavily on perceived benefits rather than costs. This study contributes to the existing body of knowledge in an attempt to understand local residents’ support for a mega event in different economic and cultural settings. 相似文献
94.
水华对沉积物中氮的转化和去除的影响 总被引:2,自引:2,他引:0
湖泊富营养化和水华暴发已经成为突出的环境问题之一,了解水华对湖泊氮素的转化和去除的影响,对于削减湖泊氮负荷至关重要.本文研究了水华对沉积物中氮转化和氮转化相关功能基因的影响,并采用结构方程模型分析了水华影响湖泊中氮转化和去除的途径.结果表明,与厌氧氨氧化相比,反硝化作用是太湖沉积物氮削减的主要途径,对沉积物中总溶解性氮去除率的解释度为42. 3%.水华可以直接造成沉积物中TDN和TOC量的增加,提高厌氧氨氧化菌、nir S和nir K的基因丰度,并且间接提高沉积物中氨氮和硝酸盐的浓度,通过增强厌氧氨氧化和反硝化过程加速沉积物中氮的去除. 相似文献
95.
基于计划行为理论的矿工违章行为研究 总被引:3,自引:2,他引:1
王丹 《中国安全科学学报》2011,21(4)
矿工违章行为是诱发煤矿重大事故的关键因素之一,以计划行为理论(TPB)为构架,加入过去行为和风险倾向2个变量,提出矿工违章行为影响因素之间的假设关系。通过问卷调查并运用结构方程模型(SEM)探讨违章行为影响因素之间的关系。结果表明:行为态度、主观规范、行为控制认知、风险倾向这4个变量对违章行为均有显著影响,主观规范和过去行为通过行为态度这一中介变量又间接地影响违章行为。实证研究结果表明,TPB模型在解释矿工违章行为问题上的适用性。 相似文献
96.
基于结构方程模型的安全生产行政执法绩效分析 总被引:2,自引:2,他引:0
为加强对企业安全生产的监督和完善行政执法的评估体系,构建了企业安全生产行政执法绩效评估指标体系。利用调查问卷的方式,获得行政执法部门的绩效评价数据。根据结构方程模型(SEM)相关原理设计绩效评价的测量模型,通过AMOS17.0软件对评价体系进行分析,得到各指标的标准化估计值。利用标准化估计值分析各潜变量对企业安全生产执法的影响权重,各观察变量对企业安全生产执法的影响权重,并进行排序,结果显示:行政执法的合法性>执法人员的素质>执法的合理性>执法的文明性>执法的公开性。 相似文献
97.
The probabilistic approach to the evaluation of fire hazard and the effectiveness of fire-precaution measures enables a rational response to the randomness of fire outbreaks. This article employs the statistical analysis methods to elucidate the causes for the ignition of fire on a random sample of industrial buildings in the Republic of Slovenia. The analyses are based on the Structural Equation Modeling (SEM), which is a well established and important statistical analysis technique in the fields of social science, biology, psychology and medicine, but hitherto rarely applied in safety research. The results of the study demonstrate that for the analyzed random sample of industrial buildings the frequency of fire outbreaks statistically significantly depends only on the presence and the probability of exposure to the heat sources (flames, sparks, and hot surfaces), but does not significantly depend on the available quantity of flammable materials within the industrial structure. 相似文献
98.
目的 解决耐压球壳极小失效概率的可靠性计算问题。方法 在自适应Kriging的基础上,结合重要抽样法提出耐压球壳可靠性计算方法。该方法在较大失效概率下构建的Kriging模型基础上获得重要方向,在重要方向上计算得到较低失效概率下的设计点,以设计点为中心,构建小失效概率的Kriging模型,并通过此模型采用重要抽样法开展可靠性计算。结果 分别使用提出的重要抽样法和蒙特卡洛法计算了2个算例的失效概率,计算结果表明,该方法具有较高的精度和效率。使用该方法对某耐压球壳工作载荷下的失效概率进行了计算,计算得到该球壳失效概率为4.094×10–96。结论 研究结果可为无失效方程下极低失效概率的可靠性计算问题提供参考。 相似文献
99.
在长江三角洲地区快速城市化的常州市内研究公园组成与冷岛效应的量化关系.基于Landsat 8TIRS和天地图高分辨率遥感影像提取公园指标以及冷岛效应指标.使用辐射传输方程法反演研究区的地表温度,使用ArcGIS的缓冲区分析和分段回归的方法研究每个公园的地表温度、降温范围和降温幅度作为冷岛效应指标;提取公园的周长、面积,并计算融合指数作为公园组成指标,在天地图高清遥感影像中提取公园的绿地覆盖率、水体覆盖率、不透水面覆盖率以及乔木覆盖率作为公园地表覆盖指标.通过相关性分析和回归模型研究,发现公园的面积为26hm2、周长阈值为3600m,公园的面积和周长在阈值范围内能够发挥较强的降温效率,超过阈值则降温效率下降.公园的融合指数与冷岛效应呈线性相关关系,融合指数较小的公园能获得较大的降温幅度.公园的乔木覆盖率、水体覆盖率与公园内部的地表温度呈显著相关关系,不透水面覆盖率、绿地覆盖率与公园内部的地表温度相关性不显著.公园规划设计需要结合公园的面积、周长阈值,融合指数的数值以及乔木、水体的覆盖率,充分发挥公园的冷岛效应. 相似文献
100.
南水北调大型渡槽结构抗震安全性研究 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:1
阐述了南水北调中大型渡槽的抗震问题,分别介绍了基于常微分方程求解器(ODE)和有限元方法的大型渡槽动力计算模型、动力特性分析和设置铅芯橡胶支座(LRB)的隔震分析。研究表明,基于ODE求解器的解析和半解析方法有很好的精度和可靠性,可用于大型渡槽的初步设计。结合所得的研究成果,对南水北调的渡槽抗震提出了合理化建议。 相似文献