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31.
Land use change is an important topic in the field of global environmental change and sustainable development. Land use change
modeling has attracted substantial attention because it helps researchers understand the mechanisms of land use change and
assists regulatory bodies in formulating relevant policies. Maotiao River Basin is located in the province of Guizhou, China,
which has a developed agricultural industry in the karst mountain areas. This paper selected biophysical and social–economic
factors as independent variables, and constructed a multiple logistic regression of farmland spatial distribution probability
by random sampling. Then, by using GIS technology and integrating the 2000 data, this study predicted the farmland spatial
pattern. When the predicted map was compared with the actual farmland map for 2000, we noted that 71% of the simulation is
in accordance with the 2000 farmland pattern. The result satisfactorily proves the reasonability and applicability of our
model. 相似文献
32.
Assessing land use impacts on flood processes in complex terrain by using GIS and modeling approach 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Y. B. Liu F. De Smedt L. Hoffmann L. Pfister 《Environmental Modeling and Assessment》2005,9(4):227-235
A distributed hydrologic modeling and GIS approach is applied for the assessment of land use impact in the Steinsel sub-basin, Alzette, Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg. The assessment focuses on the runoff contributions from different land use classes and the potential impact of land use changes on runoff generation. The results show that the direct runoff from urban areas is dominant for a flood event compared with runoff from other land use areas in this catchment, and tends to increase for small floods and for the dry season floods, whereas the interflow from forested, pasture and agricultural field areas contributes to the recession flow. Significant variations in flood volume, peak discharge, time to the peak, etc., are found from the model simulation based on the three hypothetical land use change scenarios. 相似文献
33.
William F. Laurance 《Environmental monitoring and assessment》2000,61(1):113-122
This paper describes four global-change phenomena that are having major impacts on Amazonian forests. The first is accelerating deforestation and logging. Despite recent government initiatives to slow forest loss, deforestation rates in Brazilian Amazonia have increased from 1.1 million ha yr–1 in the early 1990s, to nearly 1.5 million ha yr–1 from 1992–1994, and to more than 1.9 million ha yr–1 from 1995–1998. Deforestation is also occurring rapidly in some other parts of the Amazon Basin, such as in Bolivia and Ecuador, while industrialized logging is increasing dramatically in the Guianas and central Amazonia.The second phenomenon is that patterns of forest loss and fragmentation are rapidly changing. In recent decades, large-scale deforestation has mainly occurred in the southern and eastern portions of the Amazon — in the Brazilian states of Pará, Maranho, Rondônia, Acre, and Mato Grosso, and in northern Bolivia. While rates of forest loss remain very high in these areas, the development of major new highways is providing direct conduits into the heart of the Amazon. If future trends follow past patterns, land-hungry settlers and loggers may largely bisect the forests of the Amazon Basin.The third phenomenon is that climatic variability is interacting with human land uses, creating additional impacts on forest ecosystems. The 1997/98 El Niño drought, for example, led to a major increase in forest burning, with wildfires raging out of control in the northern Amazonian state of Roraima and other locations. Logging operations, which create labyrinths of roads and tracks in forsts, are increasing fuel loads, desiccation and ignition sources in forest interiors. Forest fragmentation also increases fire susceptibility by creating dry, fire-prone forest edges.Finally, recent evidence suggests that intact Amazonian forests are a globally significant carbon sink, quite possibly caused by higher forest growth rates in response to increasing atmospheric CO2 fertilization. Evidence for a carbon sink comes from long-term forest mensuration plots, from whole-forest studies of carbon flux and from investigations of atmospheric CO2 and oxygen isotopes. Unfortunately, intact Amazonian forests are rapidly diminishing. Hence, not only is the destruction of these forests a major source of greenhouse gases, but it is reducing their intrinsic capacity to help buffer the rapid anthropogenic rise in CO2. 相似文献
34.
Using environmental stressor information to predict the ecological status of Maryland non-tidal streams as measured by biological indicators 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
Vølstad JH Roth NE Mercurio G Southerland MT Strebel DE 《Environmental monitoring and assessment》2003,84(3):219-242
In Maryland, U.S., an interim framework has recentlybeen developed for using biologically based thresholds, or `biocriteria', to assess the health of nontidal streams statewide at watershed scales. The evaluation of impairment is based on indices of biological integrity from the Maryland Biological Stream Survey (MBSS). We applied logistic regression to quantify how the biotic integrity of streams at a local scale is affected by cumulative effects resulting from catchment land uses, point sources, and nearby transmission line rights-of-way. Indicators for land use were developed from the remote sensing National Land Cover Data and applied at different scales. We determined that the risk of local impairment in nontidal streams rapidly increases with increased urban land use in the catchment area. The average likelihood of failing biocriteria doubled with every 10% points increment in urban land, thus an increase in urban land use from 0 to 20% quadruples the risk of impairment. For the basins evaluated in this study, catchments with more than 40–50% urban land use had greater than 80% probability of failing biocriteria, on average. Inclusion of rights-of-way and point sources in the model did not significantly improve the fit for this data set, most likely because of their low numbers. The overall results indicate that our predictive modeling approach can help pinpoint stream ecosystems experiencing or vulnerable to degradation. 相似文献
35.
Combating desertification in natural rangelands has recently become a priority in large parts of southern Africa. Rangeland
managers, farmers, scientists, conservationists and land users have been applying a variety of restoration technologies to
address this problem. Bush encroachment, as part of the desertification process, involves the natural replacement of the herbaceous
plant cover by undesirable problem woody species. The active and passive restoration technologies that are applied, are mainly
based on indigenous knowledge and include the chemical, mechanical or manual reclamation of unproductive rangelands, as well
as the combating of woody and alien species encroachment. Indigenous practices and knowledge play a major role in the effectiveness
and success rate of these technologies. This project faces the challenge of bringing together both local and scientific knowledge
in a single user-friendly, computerised Decision Support System (DSS) which is directly accessible by land users to support
them in the process of decision making, concerning the combating of desertification. Case studies from central and northern
Namibia were used to combine qualitative and quantitative data to develop this Decision Support System. The DSS currently
consists of two databases and an expert system, which evaluates the results of land users’ management practices, and provides
easily accessible information and advice for participants in the system, based on the incorporated data. The DSS is also linked
to national and international web sites and databases to offer a wider range of information on technologies concerning agricultural
and conservation practices. 相似文献
36.
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38.
The potential for carbon (C) sequestration was examined in selectedCanadian forest settings and prairie agroecosystems under severalmanagement scenarios. A simple C budget model was developed toquantitatively examine C sequestration potential in living biomass of forestecosystems, in associated forest-product C pools, and in displaced fossil-fuelC. A review of previous studies was conducted to examine C sequestrationpotential in prairie agroecosystems. In the forest settings examined, ourwork suggests that substantial C sequestration opportunities can be realizedin the short term through the establishment of protected forest-C reserves.Where stands can be effectively protected from natural disturbance, peaklevels of biomass C storage can exceed that under alternative managementstrategies for 200 years or more. In settings where it is not feasible tomaintain protected forest-C reserves, C sequestration opportunities can berealized through maximum sustained yield management with harvestedbiomass put towards the displacement of fossil fuels. Because there is afinite capacity for C storage in protected forest-C reserves, harvesting forestbiomass and using it to displace the use of fossil fuels, either directlythrough the production of biofuels or indirectly through the production oflong-lived forest products that displace the use of energy-intensive materialssuch as steel or concrete, can provide the greatest opportunity to mitigategreenhouse gas emissions in the long term. In Canadian prairieagroecosystems, modest C sequestration can be realized while enhancingsoil fertility and improving the efficiency of crop production. This can bedone in situations where soil organic C can be enhanced without relianceupon ongoing inputs of nitrogen fertilizer, or where the use of fossil fuelsin agriculture can be reduced. More substantial C offsets can be generatedthrough the production of dedicated energy crops to displace the use offossil fuels. Where afforestation or reconstruction of native prairieecosystems on previously cultivated land is possible, this represents thegreatest opportunity to sequester C on a per unit-area basis. However,these last two strategies involve the removal of land from crop production,and so they are not applicable on as wide a scale as some other Csequestration options which only involve modifications to currentagricultural practices. 相似文献
39.
Land degradation is a consequence stemming from both natural processes and social economic activities. On the bases of analyzing general situation of agricultural land degradation in China, the monetary estimating methods such as market value method and shadow engineering method were used to quantitatively assess the economic loss resulting from land deterioration. Results showed that the economic loss in 1999 was 326.8l billion RMB Yuan, which accounted for 4.1% of GDP in the same year of China. If taking five items namely farmland conversion, soil erosion, salinization, decline in reservoir functions, and siltation in waterways and, comparing with that in 1992, the percentage of economic loss to GDP has increased by 1.5 in the only 7 years. 相似文献
40.
EffectofacidprecipitationonleachingofnutritionsandaluminiumfromforestsoilsDaiZhaohua;LiaoBohan;WangZhihaiWangXingjun;LiuYunxi... 相似文献