多元回归在大气环境污染事故预测中的应用

运用多元回归法,通过预测模型的选择、数学模型的建立、基础数据的整理和回归效果的检验,建立环境污染范围与诸条件的关系,达到快速估算的目的,从而形成一种有效的大气环境污染事故范围预测的方法.     

Study of the evolution of aerosol emissions from coal-fired power plants due to coagulation, condensation, and gravtitational settling and health impact

This paper studies the scavenging efficiencies of aerosol emissions from coal-fired power plants under different removal mechanisms (coagulation, heterogeneous nucleation and gravitational settling) as a function of time. It also analyses the ‘health impact’ of the aerosol before and after the above dynamic mechanisms by comparing the respirable dust fractions. The well-known equations of evolution are applied to an average PSD that represents the exhaust particulate emissions from coal-fired power plants (i.e. Aboño power plant in Asturias that belongs to Hidrocantábrico Group, S.A.). From this study it is inferred that respirable dust is scavenged with the greatest difficulty and when compared with the initial volume of respirable dust, roughly 20% remains after 18 h of gravitational settling. Therefore, gravitational settling is the main removal mechanism of respirable dust compared to condensation and coagulation.     

厦门市大气PM2.5中多环芳烃的昼夜变化特征

对厦门市冬季不同功能区大气PM2.5中多环芳烃(PAHs)的昼夜变化特征进行分析.结果表明,在检出的13种PAHs中,总浓度及其组分均呈现明显的差异.PAHs总浓度(ΣPAHs)分布在3.04-12.49ng·m-3;各功能区PAHs以菲、芘和含量相对较高,其中菲占优势,说明厦门市冬季大气PM2.5中PAHs以菲的污染为主.局部地区晚间ΣPAHs的浓度明显高于日间浓度,这可能与夜间大气混合层下降、污染物不易扩散传输、日间PAHs易光降解等有关.     

亚洲大陆2000～2002年春季大气沙尘时空特征的数值模拟

将矿物沙尘释放与沉降模式和全球大气化学传输模式相耦合,建立了一个能够完整描述沙尘的扬起、输送和沉降动态过程的模式系统,并利用实时气象资料强迫该模式,对2000、2001和2002年春季(3～5月)亚洲大气沙尘时空特征进行了数值模拟研究.结果表明,模拟的3年春季平均大气柱沙尘浓度分布与地面观测的3年春季平均沙尘暴频率分布范围基本吻合,模拟的沙尘气溶胶光学厚度与卫星观测的气溶胶指数具有显著的相关性,验证了该模式对亚洲沙尘的扬起、传输和沉降过程及大气沙尘载荷时空特征有较好的模拟能力,并基于模拟的沙尘释放通量与沙尘气溶胶光学厚度的相关分析,探讨了亚洲沙尘可能的传输路径.     

气象激光雷达的城市边界层探测

为了研究城市边界层结构变化特征,2005年7月利用气象激光雷达在南京城区做了城市边界层探测试验,就此次观测试验作了简要叙述并选取部分观测资料为示例,着重对气象激光雷达确定城市边界层高度垂直分布及逐时变化以及地面气象环境对边界层的日变化影响进行了初步分析.结果表明,主要由近地层对流混合形成的城市边界层高度具有典型的日变化特点,早晚比较低,日间有一个从低到高再到低的变化过程.提出了一种由边界层混合状态确定边界层高度的方法.分析结果表明,由气溶胶消光系数确定城市边界层高度比较准确.将MSL探测结果与同步的低空无线电探测仪的温度探测结果进行比较,结果表明,两者获得的实际廓线分布相当吻合,线性良好.就地表温度、辐射、湿度及云等气象要素对边界层垂直分布及时间变化的影响做了分析.结果表明,这些气象要素的分布对城市边界层高度的垂直分布及其逐时变化有明显影响.     

装甲钢自然环境试验与人工加速试验的相关性

对某型装甲钢在酸雨大气环境下自然暴露与人工模拟加速试验的相关性进行了研究。利用腐蚀机理对比、Spearman秩相关系数、灰色关联度、加速转换因子等方法进行了相关性的定性定量评价。评价结果表明模拟加速试验与自然环境暴露试验有较好相关性。     

桂林市城区大气VOCs污染特征及对O3和SOA的生成潜势

对桂林市城区大气中挥发性有机物(VOCs)的污染特征,以及VOCs对臭氧(O3)和二次有机气溶胶(SOA)的生成潜势进行了研究。结果显示,研究期间,共检出VOCs物种78种,平均体积分数为21.32×10-9,表现为芳香烃(67.82%)烷烃(19.56%)卤代烃(7.50%)烯烃(2.86%)含氧挥发性有机物(1.41%)。VOCs体积分数空间分布呈现市中心和下风向郊区两个高值区。通过苯与甲苯的浓度比值发现,林科所VOCs主要来自交通源和生物源,师专甲山校区VOCs主要是来自交通源,其余测点VOCs主要来自交通源、工业源和外来传输源。分析乙苯和间/对二甲苯的浓度比值发现,电子科大尧山校区气团光化学年龄较大,光化学反应活性相对较强烈;旅游学院、华侨旅游经开区、大埠中心校气团光化学年龄较小,光化学反应活性相对较弱。VOCs对O3生成潜势最大的为芳香烃(93.81%),其次是烷烃(7.22%)和烯烃(4.75%);对SOA生成潜势最大的为芳香烃(97.45%),其次是烷烃(2.55%)。     

Characterization and Identification of the Sources of Chromium, Zinc, Lead, Cadmium, Nickel, Manganese and Iron in Pm10 Particulates at the Two Sites of Kolkata, India

Monitoring of ambient PM₁₀ (particulate matter which passes through a size selective impactor inlet with a 50% efficiency cut-off at 10 μm aerodynamic diameter) has been done at residential (Kasba) and industrial (Cossipore) sites of an urban region of Kolkata during November 2003 to November 2004. These sites were selected depending on the dominant anthropogenic activities. Metal constituents of atmospheric PM₁₀ deposited on glass fibre filter paper were estimated using Inductively Coupled Plasma Atomic Emission Spectrometer (ICP-AES). Chromium (Cr), zinc (Zn), lead (Pb), cadmium (Cd), nickel (Ni), manganese (Mn) and iron (Fe) are the seven toxic trace metals quantified from the measured PM₁₀ concentrations. The 24 h average concentrations of Cr, Zn, Pb, Cd, Ni, Mn and Fe from ninety PM₁₀ particulate samples of Kolkata were found to be 6.9, 506.1, 79.1, 3.3, 7.4, 2.4 and 103.6 ng/m³, respectively. The 24 h average PM₁₀ concentration exceeded national ambient air quality standard (NAAQS) as specified by central pollution control board, India at both residential (Kasba) and industrial (Cossipore) areas with mean concentration of 140.1 and 196.6 μg/m³, respectively. A simultaneous meteorology study was performed to assess the influence of air masses by wind speed, wind direction, rainfall, relative humidity and temperature. The measured toxic trace metals generally showed inverse relationship with wind speed, relative humidity and temperature. Factor analysis, a receptor modeling technique has been used for identification of the possible sources contributing to the PM₁₀. Varimax rotated factor analysis identified four possible sources of measured trace metals comprising solid waste dumping, vehicular traffic with the influence of road dust, road dust and soil dust at residential site (Kasba), while vehicular traffic with the influence of soil dust, road dust, galvanizing and electroplating industry, and tanning industry at industrial site (Cossipore).     

超高效气溶胶净化系统有效性现场检验研究

各类超高效气溶胶净化系统普遍存在的较为突出的问题是:缺乏系统工作有效性现场检测手段,难以判断系统防护是否失效。根据超高效滤料过滤特性和测试原理,并在分析了大气气溶胶对过滤效率测试影响的基础上,提出大气气溶胶背景下,基于粒数浓度测量和使用发生的高浓度单分散气溶胶作为实验气溶胶的净化系统防护有效性现场检验测试技术及系统组成,并进行了验证。     

Impact of anthropogenic emissions and open biomass burning on regional carbonaceous aerosols in South China

Carbonaceous aerosols were studied at three background sites in south and southwest China. Hok Tsui in Hong Kong had the highest concentrations of carbonaceous aerosols (OC = 8.7 ± 4.5 μg/m³, EC = 2.5 ± 1.9 μg/m³) among the three sites, and Jianfeng Mountains in Hainan Island (OC = 5.8 ± 2.6 μg/m³, EC = 0.8 ± 0.4 μg/m³) and Tengchong mountain over the east edge of the Tibetan Plateau (OC = 4.8 ± 4.0 μg/m³, EC = 0.5 ± 0.4 μg/m³) showed similar concentration levels. Distinct seasonal patterns with higher concentrations during the winter, and lower concentrations during the summertime were observed, which may be caused by the changes of the regional emissions, and monsoon effects. The industrial and vehicular emissions in East, Southeast and South China, and the regional open biomass burning in the Indo-Myanmar region of Asia were probably the two major potential sources for carbonaceous matters in this region.