期权理论在排污权初始分配中的应用

排污权交易是当前总量控制目标下最具潜力的环境政策,它兼有环境质量保障和成本效率优化的特点.在对国内外排污权交易和初始分配充分考察的基础上,提出了在排污权初次分配中引入期权机制的尝试,并对这种方法的理论基础作了分析和讨论.     

人口与消费对碳排放影响的分析模型与实证

从消费压力人口视角探讨碳排放问题,有利于正确判断和把握气候变化压力的人文因素,以及人口与消费可持续发展的动力学机制.本文通过对STIRPAT模型的扩展,应用岭回归方法计量分析人口、消费及技术因素对碳排放的影响.对我国1980至2007年碳排放情况的统计实证结果表明,扩展的STIRPAT模型对中国国情有较高的解释力.居民消费水平、人口城市化率、人口规模三个因素对我国碳排放总量的变化影响明显;现阶段我国居民消费水平与人口结构变化对碳排放的影响力已高于人口规模变化的影响力,居民消费水平与消费模式等人文因素的变化有可能成为我国碳排放的新的增长点;技术进步因素在此模型中对我国该阶段碳排放的解释力有限,表明我国未来通过技术进步减缓碳排放的潜力巨大.     

Target Gap of Emission Reduction for China:Analysis based on Elastic Decoupling

The present paper analyzes historically the relationship between carbon emission and economic development by different stages through adopting elastic decoupling methods and Tapio evaluation criteria along with a comparison with the national Five Year Plans. The analysis shows that the influencing factors to the relationship between carbon emission and economy in China are different, and economic development and carbon emission have less connection in the recent 30 years of reform and opening-up in China. It is a difficult task to realize the promise that we will reduce carbon emission by 40%-50% in 2020 based on the data from historical experience and different expectations for economic development from economists. Through constructing the calcula- tion model of carbon emission intensity gap according to different development scenarios, the analysis shows that economic growth, infrastructure investment and further development of industrial-ization are the main drivers to the increase of carbon emission, technological progress, and particularly, the reduction of energy consumption is the primary means to reduce carbon emission in China. It is imperative to transform the economic growth pattern, and it is a grand task to perform and there is a long way to go for China to maintain economic growth and reduce carbon intensity.     

城市产业部门CO2排放三层次核算研究

城市是人类生产和生活的中心,超过75%的温室气体从城市产生,其中又以城市产业部门能源消费和工业过程非能源产生的CO2为主。本文基于投入产出模型,评价城市产业部门3个不同层次的CO2排放。以重庆为案例,核算其2002-2008年产业部门三个层次的CO2排放,包括能源消费直接排放、购买电力间接排放和全生命周期排放,并进行多层次对比。结果显示传统能源消耗和购买电力为对象的核算方法低估了产业部门CO2排放水平。2002-2008年,重庆各产业部门排放量逐年增加,碳排放强度整体呈现下降趋势。煤炭开采和洗选业、非金属矿采选业、非金属矿物制品业、电力、热力的生产和供应业,化学工业、金属冶炼及压延加工业、交通运输、仓储及邮电通讯业部门共7大行业是重庆碳排放的重点行业。部门交通设备制造业是重庆的优势产业,排放总量大,但是排放强度却相对较小,因此应大力发展该产业以促进重庆市低碳经济的发展。     

特大型城市客运交通碳排放与减排对策研究

本文基于对现有城市交通碳排放测算方法的比较分析,以上海市为例,采用IPCC"自下而上"法对特大型城市客运交通CO2排放进行了测算,结果显示:轨道交通是碳排放效率最高的客运方式,出租车最低;客运交通CO2排放总量增长迅速,且碳源结构发生了较大变化;近年客运交通CO2排放增量主要来自私人载客汽车,同时公务交通在客运交通碳排放中始终占较大比重。由此本文认为,控制客运交通碳排放的关键在于对以私人载客汽车和单位载客汽车为主的个体交通的管理和控制,形成以公共交通为主的交通结构。在此基础上,为了将控制碳排放纳入到城市交通政策目标中去,本文就主要城市交通政策对客运交通碳排放产生的影响进行了深入分析,并得出结论:以往的交通供给、需求管理政策对于抑制客运交通碳排放增长的作用有限;而就目前城市空间发展政策的实施效果而言,也不利于降低居民出行的碳排放水平。文章最后分别从交通供给、需求管理以及城市空间角度给出了控制客运交通碳排放的对策。     

负外部成本内部化约束下的煤炭开采税费水平研究

煤炭开采中面临严重的代际负外部性和生态环境负外部性问题,分别运用使用者成本法和直接市场法测算了煤炭资源开采中的代际负外部成本和生态环境负外部成本。根据两个负外部成本充分内部化的要求,提出煤炭开采中税费水平的调整目标。以2008年为例,煤炭开采中资源税的征收标准应由目前的从量0.3-5元/t(约从价1%)提至从价10%;开采吨煤应交的生态环境费用标准应由目前的24元/t提至64.23-68.47元/t,即每吨提高40.23-44.47元。综合资源税和生态环境费用的提高幅度,煤炭开采活动中的税费水平应提高约21-22个百分点;通过比较现行税费制度下煤炭开采企业实交的资源税费、生态环境税费总额与企业应交的资源、生态环境费用总额之间的差距,指出目前我国政府对开采企业隐性税费补贴的规模水平,根据价差法计算得出取消此部分税费补贴将可以削减3 653.69万tCO2排放。     

基于二次能源省际调配的中国分省CO2排放量计算

节能减排目标任务的制定需要依据科学合理的CO2排放量测算。现有的IPCC提供的CO2排放量计算方法仅考虑一次能源燃料所产生的CO2,未考虑到二次能源省际调配的情况,不能真实反映各省CO2排放情况。本研究提出了考虑二次能源省际调配情况下CO2排放量的计算方法,并以2009年的数据为例,对各省能源消费CO2排放量进行了计算。考虑二次能源省际调配后,传统的能源大省如内蒙古、山西的CO2排放总量下降,东部沿海省份的CO2排放总量上升。中西部地区的CO2排放强度仍显著高于东部地区。中西部地区存在能源利用效率低、能源加工技术设备落后的情况,导致了西部地区的CO2排放强度偏高。建议中央在实施西部大开发"十二五"规划时,应当加强对中西部地区能源加工行业的投资,改善能源加工技术,改良加工设备,提高能源加工效率,降低CO2排放强度。建议由能源调入省向能源调出省份实施补偿。该部分补偿资金用于调出省的能源产业升级改造,以顺利实现节能减排的目标。     

Application of Tradable Emission Permits in Europe

Abstract

The purpose of this study is merely to review the current situation in the designing and implementation of the emission trading programs in Europe. Historical data show that although there is a series of shortcomings in their current functioning, employing such instruments for GHG reduction policy making is strongly expected to be efficient and effective. The European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS), Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI) are just a few examples of the ambitious EU initiative that heavily relies on such instruments. We dwell on their operations and achievements by far and all the content in this article is expected to convince the Chinese government and regional public authorities to take positive actions and attitudes in promoting these instruments.     

Carbon Embodied in International Trade of China and Its Emission Responsibility

Abstract

Carbon emissions embodied in international trade of China during 1997–2007 are accounted by input–output method based on Chinese input–output table and global trade analysis project database. It is revealed that carbon emissions embodied in imports and exports both increased during 1997–2007, but carbon emissions embodied in exports are greater than those embodied in imports, China is a net export nation in embodied carbon. The net exports of embodied carbon account for about 10.82% of the total carbon emissions in 1997, dropped to 7.15% in 2002, increased to 13.13% in 2006, and slightly dropped to 12.64% in 2007. Low-end position of international industry division is an objective factor of being a net exporter of embodied carbon for China, and usage of a large amount of obsolete energy-using equipments wasted much energy and increased carbon emissions embodied in exports. Importers should take more responsibilities for carbon emissions embodied in trade, and China should take a certain responsibility for unreasonable energy dissipations too.     

The Factor Decomposition on Carbon Emission of China——Based on LMDI Decomposition Technology

Carbon emission is the current hot issue of global concern. How to assess various contributing factors for carbon emission is of great importance to find out the key factors and promote carbon emission reduction. In this paper, the author constructs an identical equation for carbon emission, based on the economic aggregate, the economic structure, the efficiency of energy utilization, the structure of energy consumption, and the coefficient of carbon emission; by applying to LMDI decomposition technology, the author analyzes the carbon emission of China from 1995 to 2007 at industrial level and regional level. The results show that the expansion of economic aggregate is the main reason for China’ s rapidly increasing carbon emission and the increase of energy utilization efficiency is the key factor that can hold back the increase of carbon emission. In addition, the change of industrial structure or regional structure and the change of traditional energy structure have limited influence on the carbon emission, and their potentials have not yet been exploited. At the end of this paper, the author proposes the efforts that China should make to reduce carbon emission.