可持续发展能力建设的理论分析与重构

本文从《２１ 世纪议程》所述的可持续发展能力的解释出发,首次定义了可持续发展能力建设的概念,全面阐术述了能力建设的基本概念和实质内涵;同时,从理论上论述了能力建设的现实意义、能力建设的途径以及能力建设在实施可持续发展战略中基础作用。     

Identification of Forest Vegetation Using Vegetation Indices

Abstract

Spectral feature of forest vegetation with remote sensing techniques is the research topic all over the world, because forest plays an important role in human beings' living environment. Research on vegetation classification with vegetation index is still very little recently. This paper proposes a method of identifying forest types based on vegetation indices, because the contrast of absorbing red waveband with reflecting near-infrared waveband strongly for different vegetation types is recognized as the theoretic basis of vegetation analysis with remote sensing. Vegetation index is highly related to leaf area index, absorbed photosynthetically active radiation and vegetation cover. Vegetation index reflects photosynthesis intensity of plants and manifests different forest types. According to reflectance data of forest canopy and soil line equation NIR=1.506R+0.0076 in Jingyuetan, Changchun of China, many vegetation indices are calculated and analyzed. The result shows that the relationships between vegetation indices and forest types are that perpendicular vegetation index (PVI) identifies broadleaf forest and coniferous forest the most easily; the next is transformed soil-adjusted vegetation index (TSVI) and modified soil-adjusted vegetation index (MSVI), but their calculation is complex. Ratio vegetation index (RVI) values of different coniferous forest vary obviously, so RVI can classify conifers. Therefore, the combination of PVI and RVI is evaluated to classify different vegetation types.     

环境约束下长江经济带全要素能源效率的时空分异研究——基于超效率DEA模型和ML指数法

基于超效率DEA模型和ML指数法,考察长江经济带1999~2013年全要素能源效率。实证研究结果显示:研究期内,环境约束下的长江经济带全要素能源效率年均下降2.9%,而不考虑环境因素的全要素能源效率年均下降幅度仅为0.4%,污染是导致能源效率损失的重要因素;长江经济带整体层面全要素能源效率的发展演变基本呈\"双峰一谷\"的\"M\"形分布,表现为两个\"上升—下降\"周期,而省际和上中下游全要素能源效率的演变特征迥异;从空间差异看,省际全要素能源效率差异远远大于上中下游差异,但近年来这种差异均有不同程度的缩小。未来长江经济带发展必须践行生态文明发展战略,保证发展的可持续性,同时加强能源、环保等领域的合作,促进长江经济带全要素能源效率发展的协同进步。     

基于SPEI的云南中部区域干旱时空变化特征分析

利用云南中部地区1961~2010年逐月降水和气温资料,采用降水距平百分率和历史旱情资料验证了标准化降水蒸散指数(Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index,SPEI)在该地区的适用性,并采用Mann-kendall突变检验、Morlet小波和经验正交函数(Empirical Orthogonal Function,EOF)等方法,分析了该地区干旱的时空演变特征,结果表明:(1)SPEI与降水距平百分率在时空上具有很好的相关性,验证了SPEI对降水变化的敏感性;(2)SPEI指数与历史旱情资料比较吻合,能够有效地反映云南中部区域的干旱特征;(3)年均SPEI呈波动下降趋势,干季SPEI降低趋势明显。年均SPEI存在着24a的主周期和9a的次周期,并于1977年发生了突变,此后开始降低,在整体上呈现出干旱化的趋势;(4)从SPEI的空间分布特征来看,其在整体上受大尺度气候系统的影响表现出一致的下降趋势,而在区域内部则表现出东南-西北(干热河谷)的反向结构差异。     

基于安徽省土地利用变化的地形梯度效应分析

为揭示地形因素与土地利用空间格局演变的关系,以安徽省2000年、2005年以及2010年Landsat TM影像和DEM数据为数据源,利用坡向、地形起伏度、坡度变率和地形位指数多种地形因子,并结合地学信息图谱分析理论从综合角度系统研究土地利用结构时空分异格局在地形梯度上的变化特点及其规律。结果表明:1)研究区主要的土地利用类型是耕地和林地,其次是建设用地和未利用土地,且建设用地面积逐期增加趋势显著。2)2000~2010年研究区不同土地利用类型在不同地形梯度区间的分异规律存在明显差异。低地形梯度范围是耕地、水域和建设用地的优势分布区;中地形梯度范围是草地的集中分布区;林地的优势分布区集中在高地形梯度范围。3)2000~2010年研究区土地利用图谱以稳定型和后期变化型为主,低地形梯度和高地形梯度是稳定型图谱的集中分布区,中低、中高和高地形梯度范围是后期变化型图谱的优势分布区。2000~2005年林地的优势分布区有向较低地形位梯度扩张的趋势,其中,耕地是主要的转入来源。2005~2010年耕地的优势分布区有向较高地形位梯度扩张的趋势,变化模式主要为:\"林地–耕地\"、\"未利用地–耕地\"和\"草地–耕地\"。     

陕西渭南地区土地生产潜力及其人口承载量

本文以多年大量的资源考察、经济统计资料为依据,运用系统动力学方法,通过建立包括土地资源、水资源和种植业、畜牧业、渔业等为主的土地生产潜力模型及人口发展预测模型,对未来40年渭南地区不同投入状况下土地生产潜力及其不同消费水平下的人口承载量,作了趋势性定量分析和预测,并得出渭南地区具有较大的土地潜在人口支持能力的基本结论。     

亚洲大陆2000～2002年春季大气沙尘时空特征的数值模拟

将矿物沙尘释放与沉降模式和全球大气化学传输模式相耦合,建立了一个能够完整描述沙尘的扬起、输送和沉降动态过程的模式系统,并利用实时气象资料强迫该模式,对2000、2001和2002年春季(3～5月)亚洲大气沙尘时空特征进行了数值模拟研究.结果表明,模拟的3年春季平均大气柱沙尘浓度分布与地面观测的3年春季平均沙尘暴频率分布范围基本吻合,模拟的沙尘气溶胶光学厚度与卫星观测的气溶胶指数具有显著的相关性,验证了该模式对亚洲沙尘的扬起、传输和沉降过程及大气沙尘载荷时空特征有较好的模拟能力,并基于模拟的沙尘释放通量与沙尘气溶胶光学厚度的相关分析,探讨了亚洲沙尘可能的传输路径.     

Quantitative Appraisement on Ecological Carrying Capacity in Coastal Rapid Developing Region of Hainan Province

Abstract

The ecological carrying capacity, an important indicator to evaluate the sustainable development of the ecosystem, means the potential ability of the natural ecosystem to carry socioeconomic development while the ecosystem is healthy. It is limited by the carrying capacity of natural resources and environment and the elasticity of the ecosystem. It will be greatly significant to study the ecological carrying capacity of Hainan Province, the first ecological province admitted by the State Environmental Protection Administration in China. Not only is the natural ecosystem reflected, but also the effects of human activities are emphasized by integrating the ecosystem health analysis into the ecological carrying capacity research. The research results, using the Factor Analysis tools of software SPSS, indicate that the ecological carrying capacity of Hainan Province fluctuated obviously from 1996 to 2005. The level of the ecological carrying capacity of Hainan Province was relatively high in 1996, and reached into trough from 1997 to 1999. It has steadily ascended to be above the middle level since the 21st century. The results also show that policy factors, especially the implementation of the ‘Ecological Province’ strategy, were important driving forces to influence the ecological carrying capacity. With the population rapidly increasing, the land and water resources per capita have decreased quickly. The amount of the ecological carrying capacity was promoted remarkably by socioeconomic development especially economic growth and technology applications. All of these will provide useful suggestions to establish and enact regional development policies, especially for protecting and reconstructing the ecology and environment of Hainan Province.     

三峡库区几种林下苔藓的保水功能

通过对三峡库区三种森林类型(松栎混交林、栓皮栎纯林、马尾松纯林)林下苔藓储量调查分析及其持水特性试验,得到不同森林类型林下苔藓储量、最大持水量、吸水速率等水文特征参数。结果表明,马尾松纯林林下苔藓储量最大(12．93t／hm^2),松栎混交林和栓皮栎纯林林下苔藓储量相同(9．47t／hm^2)。松栎混交林林下苔藓最大持水量为5．36mm,栓皮栎纯林为5．73mm,马尾松纯林为6．26mm。研究结果还表明,三峡库区林下苔藓持水量随时间变化过程与森林类型无关。在只有苔藓覆盖情况下,不同森林类型林内不产生水分下渗和地表径流时的最大降雨量和最大降雨雨强分别为：松栎混交林林地5．36mm,5．820mm／h;马尾松纯林林地6．26mm,7．420mm／h;栓皮栎纯林林地5．73mm,6．060mm／h。