基于SARIMA模型的黑龙江省冰雪旅游国际需求预测

选取黑龙江省1990-2011年冰雪旅游入境人次的月度时间序列为研究样本,建立SARIMA模型对黑龙江省冰雪旅游国际需求进行分析预测。结果表明,SARIMA（4,1,4）（1,1,1）。模型的拟合度和短期预测效果都较好。通过应用SARIMA模型进行冰雪旅游预测,以期对黑龙江省旅游企业的冰雪旅游国际客源市场开发及政府部门制定冰雪旅游发展战略和政策调整提供重要的理论依据。     

煤炭企业发展低碳经济的动力机制

将影响煤炭企业发展低碳经济的动力因素分为四大类,包括4个拉力因素、1个支撑因素、2个压力因素和4个推动力因素。设计了煤炭企业发展低碳经济的动力机制模型,在分析各个动力因素的基础上,构建了煤炭企业发展低碳经济的拉力机制模型、支撑机制模型、压力机制模型和推动力机制模型。     

旅游产业园：理论模式与实践发展

旅游产业集群式发展成为新的发展趋势和现实要求,但目前国内仍存在多种发展模式。笔者认为,旅游产业园应特别突出旅游产业特色,既要考虑传统的观光度假功能,更应考虑上下游的旅游装备研发制造、旅游商品研发生产、旅游产品营销推广等各个环节。以鄱阳湖生态旅游产业园为例,分析了该产业发展模式的建设背景、战略意义、发展定位和建设内容。     

Effects of input uncertainty and variability on the modelled environmental fate of organic pollutants under global climate change scenarios

Global climate change (GCC) is expected to influence the fate, exposure and risks of organic pollutants to wildlife and humans. Multimedia chemical fate models have been previously applied to estimate how GCC affects pollutant concentrations in the environment and biota, but previous studies have not addressed how uncertainty and variability of model inputs affect model predictions. Here, we assess the influence of climate variability and chemical property uncertainty on future projections of environmental fate of six polychlorinated biphenyl congeners under different GCC scenarios using a spreadsheet version of the ChemCAN model and the Crystal Ball® software. Regardless of emission mode, results demonstrate: (i) uncertainty in degradation half-lives dominates the variance of modelled absolute levels of PCB congeners under GCC scenarios; (ii) when the ratios of predictions under GCC to predictions under present day climate are modelled, climate variability dominates the variance of modelled ratios; and (iii) the ratios also indicate a maximum of about a factor of 2 change in the long-term average environmental concentrations due to GCC that is forecasted between present conditions and the period between 2080 and 2099. We conclude that chemical property uncertainty does not preclude assessing relative changes in a GCC scenario compared to a present-day scenario if variance in model outputs due to chemical properties and degradation half-lives can be assumed to cancel out in the two scenarios.     

曝气沉砂池除砂机理分析

针对曝气沉砂池小试装置模型,通过配砂实验对沉砂池除砂率进行统计分析,研究曝气强度与HRT对沉砂池除砂率的影响。实验结果表明,不同曝气强度下,随着HRT变化,除砂率逐渐上升,并最终趋于平衡状态;不同HRT下,曝气强度与除砂率近似呈现一定的线性关系,且随着曝气强度的增大,除砂率降低;在HRT小于1min时,砂粒的运行路径和沉降时间缩短,不利于砂粒的去除;在HRT大于1min时,其中1、3和4min,随着气水比的增加除砂率降低幅度相对较小,曝气所引起的横向环流在一定程度上有利于砂粒的沉降,而HRT为2min时,除砂率降幅却很大,这与砂粒在曝气沉砂池池体断面分布有关,即断面处旋转流速和水平流速的大小变化将影响砂粒的运动;相比曝气强度,HRT对除砂率的影响较大。     

Ecological scenarios analyzed and evaluated by a shallow lake model

We applied the complex ecosystem model EMMO, which was adopted to the shallow lake Müggelsee (Germany), in order to evaluate a large set of ecological scenarios. By means of EMMO, 33 scenarios and 17 indicators were defined to characterize their effects on the lake ecosystem. The indicators were based on model outputs of EMMO and can be separated into biological indicators, such as chlorophyll-a and cyanobacteria, and hydro-chemical indicators, such as phosphorus. The question to be solved was, what is the ranking of the scenarios based on their characterization by these 17 indicators? And how can we handle high quantities of complex data within evaluation procedures? The scenario evaluation was performed by partial order theory which, however, did not provide a clear result. By subsequently applying the hierarchical cluster analysis (complete linkage) it was possible to reduce the data matrix to indicator and scenario representatives. Even though this step implies losses of information, it simplifies the application of partial order theory and the post processing by METEOR. METEOR is derived from partial order theory and allows the stepwise aggregation of indicators, which subsequently leads to a distinct and clear decision. In the final evaluation result the best scenario was the one which defines a minimum nutrient input and no phosphorus release from the sediment while the worst scenario is characterized by a maximum nutrient input and extensive phosphorus release from the sediment. The reasonable and comprehensive results show that the combination of partial order, cluster analysis and METEOR can handle big amounts of data in a very clear and transparent way, and therefore is ideal in the context of complex ecosystem models, like that we applied.     

Adsorption of basic dye from aqueous solution onto fly ash

The fly ash treated by H₂SO₄ was used as a low-cost adsorbent for the removal of a typical dye, methylene blue, from aqueous solution. An increase in the specific surface area and dye-adsorption capacity was observed after the acid treatment. The adsorption isotherm and kinetics of the treated fly ash were studied. The experimental results were fitted using Langmuir and Freundlich isotherms. It shows that the Freundlich isotherm is better in describing the adsorption process. Two kinetic models, pseudo-first order and pseudo-second order, were employed to analyze the kinetic data. It was found that the pseudo-second-order model is the better choice to describe the adsorption behavior. The thermodynamic study reveals that the enthalpy (ΔH⁰) value is positive (5.63 kJ/mol), suggesting an endothermic nature of the adsorption.     

Determinants of Farmers’ Adoption of Improved Soil Conservation Technology in a Middle Mountain Watershed of Central Nepal

This study explores different socio-economic and institutional factors influencing the adoption of improved soil conservation technology (ISCT) on Bari land (Rainfed outward sloping terraces) in the Middle Mountain region of Central Nepal. Structured questionnaire survey and focus group discussion methods were applied to collect the necessary information from farm households. The logistic regression model predicted seven factors influencing the adoption of improved soil conservation technology in the study area including years of schooling of the household head, caste of the respondent, land holding size of the Bari land, cash crop vegetable farming, family member occupation in off farm sector, membership of the Conservation and Development Groups, and use of credit. The study showed that technology dissemination through multi-sectoral type community based local groups is a good option to enhance the adoption of improved soil conservation technology in the Middle Mountain farming systems in Nepal. Planners and policy makers should formulate appropriate policies and programs considering the farmers' interest, capacity, and limitation in promoting improved soil conservation technology for greater acceptance and adoption by the farmers.     

基于BP模型对城市交通噪声的数据处理和预测

城市交通噪声的预测和评价技术是城市交通可持续发展的重要研究内容,直接为城市交通规划中环境容量分析和环境影响评价服务。本文通过实测的大量数据,运用神经网络中的BP模型及其算法建立车辆数、道路宽度和交通噪声之间的关系,对城市道路交通噪声数据进行处理和预测。     

Integrated coastal management: top-down vs. community-based approaches

In this paper, a dynamic model is developed in which coastal quality can be improved, restored, or maintained by two distinct user groups; this is done by identifying a context that ensures an increase (or a greater increase) in coastal quality in terms of specific features that characterise the user groups. The results demonstrate that integrated coastal management is always better than non-integrated management. Moreover, when there is a low degree of interest in maintaining the coastal use over time, only integrated community-based (CB) coastal management will increase the coastal quality. Even when the interest in maintaining the coastal use over time is high, an integrated CB approach is preferred if the willingness to pay for coastal improvements is great and the marginal inefficiency of investments in coastal improvements is low, because the coastal quality improves to a greater extent; if not, only an integrated top-down (TD) approach to coastal management will increase the coastal quality. These results suggest that developing countries should always adopt a CB approach; in contrast, developed countries should adopt a CB approach where local stakeholders attach direct values to the coastal quality, and adopt a TD approach where the general population attaches indirect (option or existence) values to coastal quality.