用工业废水排放量预测地面水CODMn灰色方法研究

ＧＰＭ（１）灰色生长曲线常被用于等距时序环境系统的分析建模、非等距摆动空间序列方面的应用尚未报道。本文研究提出了将非等距摆动空间序列经过等距化处理的ＧＰＭ（１）线性回归优化建模方法采用该方法所建的非等距ＧＰＭ（１）模型用于工业废水量预测地面水ＣＯＤＭｎ的实例表明，该方法简捷，方便、精度高于回归分析，有较大实用价值。     

Estimating Trophic State Proportions of a Regional Lake Population: Are Larger Samples Always Better?

During the summers of 1991–1994, the Environmental Monitoringand Assessment Program (EMAP) sampled 344 lakes throughout thenortheastern United States using a proportional stratified sampling design based on lake size. Approximately one-quarter ofthe 344 lakes were sampled each year (4 years) for totalphosphorus to determine the proportion (and associated95% confidence intervals) of the northeast lake population 1ha (11,076 ± 1,699 lakes) that was in oligotrophic,mesotrophic, eutrophic, or heupereutropic (4 classes) conditionaccording to the total phosphorus criteria of the North AmericaLake Manegement Society. Estimates for the second, third, andfourth yr were developed as cumulative of the previous yrsamples and the current yr samples for the northeast as a wholeand for each of its three ecoregions (4 regions). New confidence intervals were computed for each cumulative yrcondition estimate. This produced a total (4 years × 4classes × 4 regions) of 64 cumulative yr tropic conditionestimates. Confidence intervals for 21% of these estimates didnot shorten with increased sample size. This phenomena raisedquestions about the accuracy of estimates based on cumulativesampling procedures. We explain why and how the phenomenon comesabout with both straight random and proportional randomsampling. Further, we present an example of the effects thisphenomenon has on lake tropic state condition estimates in thenortheastern United States.     

博斯腾湖富营养化状态水平调查

通过水质特征和生物学特征的一个水文年规范化实地调查,采用Scirgesew参数分类标准和相关加权综合营养状态指数,对博斯腾湖水体富营养化状态水平进行了调查和评价。     

灰色系统模型GM（1,1）在大气环境浓度预测中的应用

运用灰色系统理论，结合实例详细介绍了ＧＭ（１，１）模型在大气环境浓度预测中的应用。     

浅谈GAM与GM（1,1）模型

对ＧＡＭ水环境预测模型提出了四点不同看法，与有关作者商榷，指出ＧＭ（１，１）模型与ＧＡＭ模型二者并无优劣之差，精度亦相当。     

Derivation of Nutrient Guidelines for Streams in Victoria, Australia

Human induced increases to nutrientconcentrations in streams have led to many agenciesdeveloping strategies and criteria for nutrientreduction. National or statewide guidelines aregenerally inappropriate, due to the natural variabilityin stream ecosystems within political boundaries. Thisstudy used an extant aquatic macroinvertebrate-basedregionalisation for the state of Victoria, Australia, asthe basis for defining regions of relatively homogeneousenvironmental character. This enabled the selection ofecologically-based regional reference sites andsubsequent characterisation of the nutrient status ofthese sites. Using an extensive biological and nutrientdata base for streams across the State, we calculated50th and 75th percentile concentrations forreference sites within each region. Using thesepercentiles in conjunction with impact and recoverystudies, we defined nutrient guidelines for each region. Although the nutrient data largely supported thebiological regionalisation, patterns in the nutrient datadid require some minor modifications for the nutrientregions. Relatively unimpacted regions with referencesites in very good-to excellent-condition were assignedguidelines largely based on the 75th percentiles. The more impacted regions, where best availablereference sites were of poorer quality, were assignedguidelines based largely on the 50th percentiles. Professional judgement and known extents of impactsacross each region provided important contributions tothe decision-making process. The derived guidelineconcentrations are comparable to several cited in theliterature and are proposed for use in monitoring,assessment and restoration targets.     

Application of CFD Methods for Modelling in Air Pollution Problems: Possibilities and Gaps

Different urban air pollution problems deal with complex structure of air flows and turbulence. For such problems the Computer Fluid Dynamics (CFD) methods become widely used. However, this approach despite a number of advantages has some problems. Experience of use of CFD tools for development of models and suggestions of their applications for a local scale air pollution over a complex terrain and stable stratification are discussed in this paper, including: Topography and complex geometry: choose of the co-ordinate system and computer grid; Turbulence closure for air pollution modelling: modified k- model for stable stratified ABL; Boundary conditions for vertical profiles of velocity for stable-stratified atmosphere; Effects of the radiation and thermal budget of inclined surfaces to dispersion of pollutants; Artificial sources of air dynamics and circulation.Some examples of CFD applications for air pollution modelling for a flat terrain, mountainous area, mining open cast and indoor ventilation are discussed. Modified k- model for stably-stratified ABL is suggested. Due to the isotropic character of the k- model a combination of it in vertical with the sub-grid turbulence closure in horizontal can be more suitable for ABL. An effective scheme of boundary conditions for velocity profiles, based on the developed similarity theory for stable-stratified ABL, is suggested. Alongside with the common studies of atmospheric dispersion, the CFD methods have also demonstrated a good potential for studying anthropogenic and artificial-ventilation sources of air dynamic and circulation in local-scale processes of air pollution.     

Geostatistical Uncertainty Modelling for the Environmental Hazard Assessment During Single Erosive Rainstorm Events

This paper presents an environmental hazard assessment to account the impacts of single rainstorm variability on river-torrential landscape identified as potentially vulnerable mainly to erosional soil degradation processes. An algorithm for the characterisation of this impact, called Erosive Hazard Index (EHI), is developed with a less expensive methodology. In EHI modelling, we assume that the river-torrential system has adapted to the natural hydrological regime, and a sudden fluctuation in this regime, especially those exceeding thresholds for an acceptable range of flexibility, may have disastrous consequences for the mountain environment. The hazard analysis links key rainstorm energy variables expressed as a single-storm erosion index (EI_sto), with impact thresholds identified using an intensity pattern model. Afterwards, the conditional probabilities of exceeding these thresholds are spatially assessed using non-parametric geostatistical techinques, known as indicator kriging. The approach was applied to a test site in river-torrential landscape of the Southern Italy (Benevento province) for 13 November 1997 rainstorm event.     

Fractionation of heavy metals and phosphorus in suspended sediments of the Yamuna river,India

The Yamuna river is the largest tributary of the Ganges river system. It originates in the Himalayas and flows through a varied geological terrain encompassing a large basin area. Metals Fe, Mn, Pb, Zn, Cu in different chemical fractions of suspended sediments such as exchangeable, carbonates, Fe–Mn oxides, organics and residual fractions were studied. Phosphorus associated with different chemical forms are discussed. The metals are mostly associated with residual fractions in the sediments followed by organics, Fe–Mn oxides, exhangeable and carbonates. Intensive use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides in agriculture in the basin affects the high inorganic phosphorus content in sediments.     

我国内陆流域各类水体中天然放射性核素浓度

1985年～1989年由新疆、甘肃、青海、西藏、内蒙古、陕西、宁夏等省、自治区环境监测站(研究所)对内陆流域各类水体中U、Th、~(226)Ra、~(40)K浓度进行调查,由调查的29条内陆河、23个湖泊、15座水库、55处井泉和34个自来水的统计结果表明,流域内各水体中U和~(40)K浓度的平均值与同期调查的黄河水系同类水体的浓度相近,明显高于长江水系,与全国同类水体相比亦属偏高。Th和~(226)Ra的平均浓度与全国同类水体的浓度相近,甘、新内陆区浓度较低。调查发现,一些咸水湖、井水和自来水中U、~(226)Ra,或~(40)K浓度异常偏高。