Flood‐related losses in the United States are increasing despite large‐scale mitigation efforts. To offset the rising cost of floods, the US Congress passed legislation in 2014 that will augment insurance premiums to make the National Flood Insurance Program more actuarially sound. Consequently, there is interest in lowering flood‐related costs to the homeowner, both in terms of premiums and damage. This study addresses the issue by integrating premium savings and damages avoided based on several mitigation scenarios. Specifically, it examines how much policyholders within a watershed near Houston, Texas, could have saved between 1999 and 2009 had their communities introduced specific avoidance‐based mitigation activities. The results indicate that homeowners and communities can offset premium rises and a majority of the damage suffered through marginal expansions of such initiatives. However, the costs associated with their implementation could counter some of these savings, and hence they need to be considered in future work. 相似文献
Atlantic sturgeon (Acipenser oxyrhynchus) populations have been declared either endangered or threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Effective measures to repel sturgeon from fishing gear would be beneficial to both fish and fishers because they could reduce both fishery‐associated mortality and the need for seasonal and area closures of specific fisheries. Some chondrostean fishes (e.g., sturgeons and paddlefishes) can detect weak electric field gradients (possibly as low as 5 Μv/cm) due to arrays of electroreceptors (ampullae of Lorenzini) on their snout and gill covers. Weak electric fields, such as those produced by electropositive metals (typically mixtures of the lanthanide elements), could therefore potentially be used as a deterrent. To test this idea, we recorded the behavioral responses of juvenile Atlantic sturgeon (31–43 cm fork length) to electropositive metal (primarily a mixture of the lanthanide elements neodymium and praseodymium) both in the presence and absence of food stimuli. Trials were conducted in an approximately 2.5 m diameter × 0.3 m deep tank, and fish behaviors were recorded with an overhead digital video camera. Video records were subsequently digitized (x, y coordinate system), the distance between the fish and the electropositive metal calculated, and data summarized by compiling frequency distributions with 5‐cm bins. Juvenile sturgeon showed clear avoidance of electropositive metal but only when food was present. On the basis of our results, we conclude that the electropositive metals, or other sources of weak electric fields, may eventually be used to reduce the interactions of Atlantic sturgeon with fishing gear, but further investigation is needed. El Potencial del Metal Electropositivo para Reducir las Interacciones del Esturión Atlántico con Instrumentos de Pesca Bouyoucos, Bushnell & Brill 13–003 相似文献
ABSTRACT: A survey of individuals during a Giardia contamination incident provided data to calculate the cost of boiling, hauling, or purchasing water to avoid infection. Three different approaches to the valuation of time were used to assess the implications of the opportunity cost of time for the measurement of averting costs. Mean monthly household averting costs were $33.47 using family income to value time, $13.07 using the minimum wage to value time, and $5.60 using zero opportunity cost of time. Comparisons of the mean costs for different sources and household characteristics indicated the value of time from family income was too high and that the other methods of valuing time were superior. 相似文献
Prey animals often have to face a dynamic tradeoff between the costs of antipredator behavior and the benefits of other fitness-related activities such as foraging and reproduction. According to the threat-sensitive predator avoidance hypothesis, prey animals should match the intensity of their antipredator behavior to the degree of immediate threat posed by the predator. Moreover, longer-term temporal variability in predation risk (over days to weeks) can shape the intensity of antipredator behavior. According to the risk allocation hypothesis, changing the background level of risk for several days is often enough to change the response intensity of the prey to a given stimulus. As the background level of risk increases, the response intensity of the prey decreases. In this study, we tested for possible interactions between immediate threat-sensitive responses to varying levels of current perceived risk and temporal variability in background risk experienced over the past 3 days. Juvenile convict cichlids were preexposed to either low or high frequencies of predation risk (using conspecific chemical alarm cues) for 3 days and were then tested for a response to one of five concentrations (100, 50, 25, 12.5%, or a distilled water control). According to the threat-sensitive predator avoidance hypothesis, we found greater intensity responses to greater concentrations of alarm cues. Moreover, in accordance with the risk allocation hypothesis, we found that cichlids previously exposed to the high background level of risk exhibited a lower overall intensity response to each alarm cue concentration than those exposed to the low background level of risk. It is interesting to note that we found that the background level of risk over the past 3 days influenced the threshold level of response to varying concentrations of alarm cues. Indeed, the minimum stimulus concentration that evoked a behavioral response was lower for fish exposed to high background levels of predation than those exposed to low background levels of predation. These results illustrate a remarkable interplay between immediate (current) risk and background risk in shaping the intensity of antipredator responses. 相似文献
Objective: Vehicle safety rating systems aim firstly to inform consumers about safe vehicle choices and, secondly, to encourage vehicle manufacturers to aspire to safer levels of vehicle performance. Primary rating systems (that measure the ability of a vehicle to assist the driver in avoiding crashes) have not been developed for a variety of reasons, mainly associated with the difficult task of disassociating driver behavior and vehicle exposure characteristics from the estimation of crash involvement risk specific to a given vehicle. The aim of the current study was to explore different approaches to primary safety estimation, identifying which approaches (if any) may be most valid and most practical, given typical data that may be available for producing ratings.
Methods: Data analyzed consisted of crash data and motor vehicle registration data for the period 2003 to 2012: 21,643,864 observations (representing vehicle-years) and 135,578 crashed vehicles. Various logistic models were tested as a means to estimate primary safety: Conditional models (conditioning on the vehicle owner over all vehicles owned); full models not conditioned on the owner, with all available owner and vehicle data; reduced models with few variables; induced exposure models; and models that synthesised elements from the latter two models.
Results: It was found that excluding young drivers (aged 25 and under) from all primary safety estimates attenuated some high risks estimated for make/model combinations favored by young people. The conditional model had clear biases that made it unsuitable. Estimates from a reduced model based just on crash rates per year (but including an owner location variable) produced estimates that were generally similar to the full model, although there was more spread in the estimates. The best replication of the full model estimates was generated by a synthesis of the reduced model and an induced exposure model.
Conclusions: This study compared approaches to estimating primary safety that could mimic an analysis based on a very rich data set, using variables that are commonly available when registered fleet data are linked to crash data. This exploratory study has highlighted promising avenues for developing primary safety rating systems for vehicle makes and models. 相似文献