Objective: Vehicle safety rating systems aim firstly to inform consumers about safe vehicle choices and, secondly, to encourage vehicle manufacturers to aspire to safer levels of vehicle performance. Primary rating systems (that measure the ability of a vehicle to assist the driver in avoiding crashes) have not been developed for a variety of reasons, mainly associated with the difficult task of disassociating driver behavior and vehicle exposure characteristics from the estimation of crash involvement risk specific to a given vehicle. The aim of the current study was to explore different approaches to primary safety estimation, identifying which approaches (if any) may be most valid and most practical, given typical data that may be available for producing ratings.
Methods: Data analyzed consisted of crash data and motor vehicle registration data for the period 2003 to 2012: 21,643,864 observations (representing vehicle-years) and 135,578 crashed vehicles. Various logistic models were tested as a means to estimate primary safety: Conditional models (conditioning on the vehicle owner over all vehicles owned); full models not conditioned on the owner, with all available owner and vehicle data; reduced models with few variables; induced exposure models; and models that synthesised elements from the latter two models.
Results: It was found that excluding young drivers (aged 25 and under) from all primary safety estimates attenuated some high risks estimated for make/model combinations favored by young people. The conditional model had clear biases that made it unsuitable. Estimates from a reduced model based just on crash rates per year (but including an owner location variable) produced estimates that were generally similar to the full model, although there was more spread in the estimates. The best replication of the full model estimates was generated by a synthesis of the reduced model and an induced exposure model.
Conclusions: This study compared approaches to estimating primary safety that could mimic an analysis based on a very rich data set, using variables that are commonly available when registered fleet data are linked to crash data. This exploratory study has highlighted promising avenues for developing primary safety rating systems for vehicle makes and models. 相似文献
Objective: There are little objective data on whether drivers with lane departure warning and forward collision warning systems actually use them, but self-report data indicate that lane departure warning may be used less and viewed less favorably than forward collision warning. The current study assessed whether the systems were turned on when drivers brought their vehicles to dealership service stations and whether the observational protocol is a feasible method for collecting similar data on various manufacturers' systems.
Methods: Observations of 2013–2015 Honda Accords, 2014–2015 Odysseys, and 2015 CR-Vs occurred at 2 U.S. Honda dealerships for approximately 4 weeks during Summer 2015.
Results: Of the 265 vehicles observed to have the 2 systems, 87 (32.8%) had lane departure warning turned on. Accords were associated with a 66% increase in the likelihood that lane departure warning was turned on compared with Odysseys, but the rate was still only about 40% in Accords. In contrast, forward collision warning was turned on in all but one of the observed vehicles.
Conclusions: Observations found that the activation rate was much higher for forward collision warning than lane departure warning. The observation method worked well and appears feasible for extending to other manufacturers. 相似文献
Extra-pair paternity (EPP) is a common feature of the mating systems of many birds. The rate of EPP may vary between species, races and populations. A comparison of extra-group paternity (EGP) rates was made between two races of a group-living passerine, the Australian magpie (Gymnorhina tibicen), to determine if similar mating systems were being employed. The two populations had similar social structure, but differed in group size and dispersal. It was predicted that dispersal differences would have a profound effect on the rate of EGP between the populations, as the population with the lower rate of dispersal and higher chance of breeding with a close relative would engage in EGPs more frequently. Eight microsatellite loci were used to determine parentage in the white-backed Australian magpie (G. t. tyrannica). The rate of EGP was found to be 44%. Dispersal rates were estimated from observational data. Over half of the juvenile magpie cohort from the previous breeding season left the territorial group. These results contrast sharply with the results found by other researchers in a population of western Australian magpies (G. t. dorsalis). In this population, 82% EGP is recorded and dispersal of juveniles is close to nil. The results indicate that dispersal rate is a potentially important predictor of rates of extra-group fertilisations between populations of this species, and suggest that females maximise their reproductive output by avoiding breeding with close kin.Communicated by M. Soler 相似文献
Since 1990, fatal animal-vehicle collisions (AVCs) in the United States have more than doubled. This paper examines annual AVC trends in the United States over a 19-year period, seasonal and diurnal patterns of AVC risk, the geographic distribution of crash risk by state, and the association between posted speed limit and AVC crash risk in darkness.
Method
AVCs were compiled from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) and the General Estimates System (GES) for the years 1990-2008 to examine annual crash trends for fatal and nonfatal crashes. Seasonal trends for fatal AVCs were examined with the aggregated FARS dataset; seasonal trends for fatal and nonfatal AVCs were also examined by aggregating four years of Michigan crash data. State-by-state distributions of fatal AVCs were also described with the aggregated FARS dataset. Finally, the relationship between posted speed limit and the odds that a fatal or nonfatal AVC occurred in darkness were examined with logistic regressions using the aggregated FARS and Michigan datasets.
Results
Between 1990 and 2008, fatal AVCs increased by 104% and by 1.3 crashes per trillion vehicle miles travelled per year. Although not all AVCs involve deer, daily and seasonal AVC crash trends follow the general activity pattern of deer populations, consistent with prior reports. The odds that a fatal AVC occurred in darkness were also found to increase by 2.3% for each mile-per-hour increase in speed; a similar, albeit smaller, effect was also observed in the aggregated Michigan dataset, among nonfatal crashes.
Conclusion
AVCs represent a small but increasing share of crashes in the United States. Seasonal and daily variation in the pattern of AVCs seem to follow variation in deer exposure and ambient light level. Finally, the relative risk that a fatal and nonfatal AVC occurred in darkness is influenced by posted speed limit, suggesting that a driver's limited forward vision at night plays a role in AVCs, as it does in pedestrian collisions.
Impact on Industry
The association between speed limit and crash risk in darkness suggests that AVC risk might be reduced with countermeasures that improve a driver's forward view of the road. 相似文献
The frequently discussed gap between conservation science and practice is manifest in the gap between spatial conservation prioritization plans and their implementation. We analyzed the research‐implementation gap of one zoning case by comparing results of a spatial prioritization analysis aimed at avoiding ecological impact of peat mining in a regional zoning process with the final zoning plan. We examined the relatively complex planning process to determine the gaps among research, zoning, and decision making. We quantified the ecological costs of the differing trade‐offs between ecological and socioeconomic factors included in the different zoning suggestions by comparing the landscape‐level loss of ecological features (species occurrences, habitat area, etc.) between the different solutions for spatial allocation of peat mining. We also discussed with the scientists and planners the reasons for differing zoning suggestions. The implemented plan differed from the scientists suggestion in that its focus was individual ecological features rather than all the ecological features for which there were data; planners and decision makers considered effects of peat mining on areas not included in the prioritization analysis; zoning was not truly seen as a resource‐allocation process and not emphasized in general minimizing ecological losses while satisfying economic needs (peat‐mining potential); and decision makers based their prioritization of sites on site‐level information showing high ecological value and on single legislative factors instead of finding a cost‐effective landscape‐level solution. We believe that if the zoning and decision‐making processes are very complex, then the usefulness of science‐based prioritization tools is likely to be reduced. Nevertheless, we found that high‐end tools were useful in clearly exposing trade‐offs between conservation and resource utilization. 相似文献
According to the threat-sensitive predator avoidance hypothesis, selection favors prey that accurately assess the degree of threat posed by a predator and adjust their anti-predator response to match the level of risk. Many species of animals rely on chemical cues to estimate predation risk; however, the information content conveyed in these chemical signatures is not well understood. We tested the threat-sensitive predator avoidance hypothesis by determining the specificity of the information conveyed to prey in the chemical signature of their predator. We found that fathead minnows (Pimephales promelas) could determine the degree of threat posed by northern pike (Esox lucius) based on the concentration of chemical cues used. The proportion of minnows that exhibited an anti-predator response when exposed to a predator cue increased as the concentration of the pike cue used increased. More surprisingly, the prey could also distinguish large pike from small pike based on their odor alone. The minnows responded more intensely to cues of small pike than to cues of large pike. In this predator–prey system small pike likely represent a greater threat than large pike.Communicated by A. Mathis 相似文献