洞庭湖垸内灾害风险区湖垸高效生态农业模式研究

为了协调好防灾减灾与农业可持续发展的关系,运用灾害学、循环经济学以及农业、林业、牧业、水产、生态、系统工程等学科交叉的理论与方法,将灾害防控技术体系、先进的农业生产方式及生产技术体系与高效生态农业结构的优化机理融为一体,设计了垸內居民区庭院循环经济型灭虫防病技术集成模式,垸内生产区水陆循环经济型血防治鼠避洪耐涝技术集成模式,并分别在典型区域进行了示范,试验表明：与传统生产方式相比,生态、经济、社会三大效益十分显著。同时认为,在建设好优势农产品生产基地的基础上,积极创造条件,发展与之相配套的商品服务体系和市场体系,促进粮、猪、油、麻、渔等产品的精、深加工,延伸产业链,增加产品附加值,提升模式的综合效益,进而推进湖垸农业产业化。     

考虑主动避让行为的养老场所人员疏散研究

为明确主动避让行为对养老场所人员疏散的影响,建立考虑主动避让弱势群体行为的元胞自动机模型,模型分别考虑避让弱势群体前方行走区域、斜前方行走区域、前方和斜前方行走区域对人员疏散的影响;分析不同避让方式下弱势群体比例、行人密度、弱势群体位置分布对整体疏散结果的影响.结果 表明:主动避让弱势群体行为能够降低疏散时间,增加疏散...     

Quantifying Vision Zero: Crash avoidance in rural and motorway accident scenarios by combination of ACC,AEB, and LKS projected to German accident occurrence

Abstract

Objective: The Vision Zero initiative pursues the goal of eliminating all traffic fatalities and severe injuries. Today’s advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) are an important part of the strategy toward Vision Zero. In Germany in 2018 more than 26,000 people were killed or severely injured by traffic accidents on motorways and rural roads due to road accidents. Focusing on collision avoidance, a simulative evaluation can be the key to estimating the performance of state-of-the-art ADAS and identifying resulting potentials for system improvements and future systems.

This project deals with the effectiveness assessment of a combination of ADAS for longitudinal and lateral intervention based on German accident data. Considered systems are adaptive cruise control (ACC), autonomous emergency braking (AEB), and lane keeping support (LKS).

Methods: As an approach for benefit estimation of ADAS, the method of prospective effectiveness assessment is applied. Using the software rateEFFECT, a closed-loop simulation is performed on accident scenario data from the German In-Depth Accident Study (GIDAS) precrash matrix (PCM). To enable projection of results, the simulative assessment is amended with detailed single case studies of all treated cases without PCM data.

Results: Three categories among today’s accidents on German rural roads and motorways are reported in this study: Green, grey, and white spots.

Green spots identify accidents that can be avoided by state-of-the-art ADAS ACC, AEB, and LKS. Grey spots contain scenarios that require minor system modifications, such as reducing the activation speed or increasing the steering torque. Scenarios in the white category cannot be addressed by state-of-the-art ADAS. Thus, which situations demand future systems are shown. The proportions of green, grey, and white spots are determined related to the considered data set and projected to the entire GIDAS.

Conclusions: This article describes a systematic approach for assessing the effectiveness of ADAS using GIDAS PCM data to be able to project results to Germany. The closed-loop simulation run in rateEFFECT covers ACC, AEB, and LKS as well as relevant sensors for environment recognition and actuators for longitudinal and lateral vehicle control.

Identification of green spots evaluates safety benefits of state-of-the-art level 0–2 functions as a baseline for further system improvements to address grey spots. Knowing which accidents could be avoided by standard ADAS helps focus the evolution of future driving functions on white spots and thus aim for Vision Zero.     

An environment-friendly synthesis of 4(3H)-quinazolinones

4(3H)-Quinazolinones, a class of important heterocycles, are used extensively in various fields. Although there are a number of synthetic approaches, all of them use catalysts, solvents, chemical oxidants, and/or reagents harmful to the environment when released in large quantities. An environment-friendly, catalyst-free, solventless, one-step synthesis of 4(3H)-quinazolinones is presented. The process involves heating of aldehydes and anthranilamides under air as cheap oxidant and as key promoter of reaction. The protocol is suitable for both aromatic and aliphatic aldehydes. This novel synthetic method may be applied to a wide range of educts, offering high yields at low cost while characterized by minimum environmental impact.     

Effects of wind‐energy facilities on breeding grassland bird distributions

The contribution of renewable energy to meet worldwide demand continues to grow. Wind energy is one of the fastest growing renewable sectors, but new wind facilities are often placed in prime wildlife habitat. Long‐term studies that incorporate a rigorous statistical design to evaluate the effects of wind facilities on wildlife are rare. We conducted a before‐after‐control‐impact (BACI) assessment to determine if wind facilities placed in native mixed‐grass prairies displaced breeding grassland birds. During 2003–2012, we monitored changes in bird density in 3 study areas in North Dakota and South Dakota (U.S.A.). We examined whether displacement or attraction occurred 1 year after construction (immediate effect) and the average displacement or attraction 2–5 years after construction (delayed effect). We tested for these effects overall and within distance bands of 100, 200, 300, and >300 m from turbines. We observed displacement for 7 of 9 species. One species was unaffected by wind facilities and one species exhibited attraction. Displacement and attraction generally occurred within 100 m and often extended up to 300 m. In a few instances, displacement extended beyond 300 m. Displacement and attraction occurred 1 year after construction and persisted at least 5 years. Our research provides a framework for applying a BACI design to displacement studies and highlights the erroneous conclusions that can be made without the benefit of adopting such a design. More broadly, species‐specific behaviors can be used to inform management decisions about turbine placement and the potential impact to individual species. Additionally, the avoidance distance metrics we estimated can facilitate future development of models evaluating impacts of wind facilities under differing land‐use scenarios.     

Conservation lessons from taboos and trolley problems

Governments pass conservation laws, adopt policies, and make plans yet frequently fail to implement them. Implementation of conservation, however, often requires costly sacrifice: people foregoing benefit for the benefit of biodiversity. Decisions involve trade-offs with outcomes that depend on the values at stake and people's perceptions of those values. Psychology, ethics, and behavioral science have each addressed the challenge of making difficult, often tragic, trade-off decisions. Based on these literatures, values can be classified as secular or sacred, where sacred values are those for which compensation may be unthinkable (e.g., freedom). Taboo trade-offs emerge when secular values are pitted against sacred ones. These are difficult to discuss, much less negotiate. Confronting taboo trade-offs in conservation may require discursive approaches to better understand particular attributes of decisions that place sacred human values at risk. Tragic trade-offs emerge when sacred values are pitted against one another. The trolley problem—a forced choice between 2 unthinkable outcomes—is a simple heuristic illustrating ethical challenges of tragic trade-offs. Behavior studies illustrate that people have a strong aversion to losses where an active choice was made, resulting in a bias toward status quo decisions. Faced with tragic, trolley-problem-like choices, people tend to avoid taking responsibility for action, defer decisions, evade opinions on painful choices, and regret unfortunate outcomes of actions. To help close the implementation gap, conservation actors may need to directly address the psychological, ethical, and behavioral barriers created by the remorse, regret, and moral residue of implementing conservation choices that have tragic outcomes. Recognition of these predictable features of the human psyche may foster better administrative structures to support action with durable outcomes as well as new research directions.     

Reproductive suppression and inbreeding avoidance in wild populations of co-operatively breeding meerkats (Suricata suricatta)

Meerkats live in co-operatively breeding familial groups in which reproduction is monopolised by a dominant pair of breeders. Offspring of the breeders are behaviourally subordinate, and typically remain in their natal group as sexually mature, non-breeding helpers. In this study, we investigated the proximate factors limiting subordinate reproduction. Evidence for reproductive suppression by dominants was investigated by comparing life history, behaviour and hormonal profiles of dominants and subordinates. Baseline levels of plasma luteinising hormone (LH) were significantly higher in dominant than in subordinate females. However, following an exogenous injection of gonadotrophin-releasing hormone (GnRH), both categories had comparable concentrations of circulating LH. There were no significant differences in pre- or post-GnRH challenge LH levels in dominant or subordinate males. Reproduction in both dominant and subordinate females rarely occurred in the absence of unrelated males. Given that groups typically comprise parents and offspring, lack of suitable mates emerged as the primary constraint on subordinate reproduction. When this constraint was removed, subordinates typically bred but at a lower rate than dominants. This difference in reproduction may be attributed to intrasexual competition manifested through direct interference by dominant females through subordinate evictions, infanticide and the abandoning of subordinate litters. We argue that differences in reproductive regulation within mammalian co-operative breeding systems may be explained by differences in the mating strategy (inbreeding versus outbreeding) and the probability that subordinates in obligate outbreeding species will encounter unrelated opposite-sex partners. Received: 19 April 2000 / Accepted: 17 July 2000     

国内船舶碰撞事故科研产出及主题趋势挖掘

为了全面认识国内船舶碰撞研究的整体现状及趋势,基于中国知网的2000—2016年506篇船舶碰撞学位论文和1957—2016年1 620篇期刊论文,使用科学计量和知识图谱的方法进行了可视化分析。结果表明:学位论文和期刊论文的产出主要集中以大连海事大学、上海海事大学、上海交通大学以及武汉理工大学为核心形成不同的研究团队。关于船舶碰撞的学位论文主要集中在AI、船舶避碰、数值仿真等方面,期刊论文的热点主要分布在船舶避碰、碰撞事故、碰撞危险等方面。整体来看,2000年以后学位和期刊论文在研究上的趋势是相近的,都在关注AI、数值模拟方法和碰撞责任主体等方面的避碰主题,近期新兴的研究更加关注在一些船舶碰撞微观的层面。     

避洪耐涝生态农业的发展方向与思路——洞庭湖退田还湖区案例研究

在退田还湖区发展避洪耐涝生态农业，是提高移民收入、脱贫致富奔小康、提高移民安置质量和拓展安置容量的重要途径。根据洞庭湖区的农业优势和退田还湖区发展高效生态农业的基础和条件，将其发展的总体方向确定为实现避洪耐涝高效特色生态农业产业化。其基本思路是：（1）双退垸行洪区面对洪水渍水重点发展耐涝性强的水生蔬菜、水生饲料及特种名优渔类产业；（2）单退垸区避开洪水重点发展粮油、林草、畜牧业等主导产业；面对洪水、渍水发展耐涝性强的水禽和特种水产养殖业；（3）蓄洪垸区避开特大洪水大力发展粮食、经济作物，突出发展草食牧畜业，积极发展水禽和特种渔类养殖业。通过发展差异性的避洪耐涝生态农业，建设具有支柱产业链特色的粮油生产基地、畜禽生产基地、林木、蔬菜生产基地，特种水产养殖基地，最终实现高效生态农业产业化。     

MEASURING ECONOMIC LOSSES FROM GROUND WATER CONTAMINATION: AN INVESTIGATION OF HOUSEHOLD AVOIDANCE COSTS1

ABSTRACT: Economic losses from ground water contamination were estimated in a central Pennsylvania community. The averting expenditures method was applied via a mail survey of households in which water contained the unregulated volatile organic chemical, perchloroethylene (PCE). Expenditures were estimated at $148,900 (1987 dollars) over the six-month contamination period or approximately $252 per household annually. These costs underestimate the lower bound measure of welfare losses to households from ground water contamination. An upper bound measure of welfare losses was estimated at $383 per household annually. These estimates do not represent the full economic losses resulting from ground water contamination since the study did not address municipal-level and business avoidance costs and losses from actual health effects, increased fear and anxiety, ecological damages, and nonuser ground water benefits. The results expand the existing empirical base of information about municipal-level responses and economic losses from ground water contamination to include household-level impacts. The findings indicate that households undertake substantial averting actions in response to ground water contamination and that such actions can have significant economic consequences. The extent and magnitude of avoidance costs documented suggests that policy-makers should give greater attention to this category of economic losses.