估计近场地震动的统计—经验格林函数法

本文提出统计-经验格林函数法,用以估计缺乏小震记录场点在大震时的地震动时程。统计-经验格林函数的富里哀幅值谱从其它类似场地获得的小震记录的富里哀谱的衰减关系中得到,其相位谱则直接取自小震记录的相位谱。本文分别用经验格林函数法和统计-经验格林函数法,用迁安台记录到的1976年唐山地震的三次余震(M_L 5.8、M_L 5.7和M_L 5.4)的加速度记录,合成唐山地震的最大余震滦县地震(M_s 7.1)时迁安台的加速度时程曲线,合成结果说明了所提方法的可行性。     

微生物法和微生物生态法的评价和选用

微生物法和微生物生态法作为生物治理方案的两大类型，已日益受到环保工作者的重视。这两种类型的治理方法各有特点，各有利弊。如何选择使用？主要取决于污染场所中污染形成的时间长短、污染程度、污染物浓度、污染物中是否含有污水、是否需要快速治理等。应明确指出的是，采用生物治理法虽可在多种情况下大大降低污染物的浓度，但从长远来看，还不能单纯依靠降低污染物的排放浓度，而是应从低浓度污染物对人和环境产生的长期影响着眼，制定出一套治理标准，这样才能准确评价生物治理技术在环境保护中所起的真正作用。     

FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS FOR SMALL WATERSHEDS IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS1

ABSTRACT: Twenty-two gaging stations were selected for developing a regional flood frequency curve for small (area less than 2 square miles) watersheds in southern Illinois. Five probability functions were compared, and the extreme value type I function was selected to develop the regional flood curve. The curve was generated with the index flood method and also another empirical method that related the function parameters to the watershed area. Estimated peak discharges with various return periods were compared with the results obtained from multiple regression analysis.     

Estimation of the shadow prices of pollutants with production/environment inefficiency taken into account: a nonparametric directional distance function approach

This paper deals with the estimation of the shadow prices of pollutants with a nonparametric directional distance function approach, where the inefficiency involved in the production process is taken into account unlike the previous studies. The directional vector, which is critical to the estimation and subject to the criterion for an appropriate efficiency rule proposed here, is calculated by using the annual plans of power plants in terms of production and environment. In the empirical study for Korea's electric power industry during the period of 1990-1995, we find that the average shadow prices of sulfur oxides (SOx), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and total suspended particulates (TSP) are approximately 10% lower than those calculated under the assumption of full efficiency. The methodology we propose and the findings obtained in the empirical study allow us to undertake better decision-making over a broad range of environmental policy issues.     

Dynamics of Bacterial Abundance,Biomass, Activity,and Community Composition in the Oligotrophic Traunsee and the Traun River (Austria)

The holomictic Traunsee is the deepest and second largest lakein Austria. The special characteristic of this ecosystem isthe fact that local salt and soda industries presumably alterthe lake by the discharge of waste materials. Since thebeginning of the 20th century salt and soda works areannually releasing up to 50,000 tons of solid wastes and up to150,000 tons of chloride into Traunsee. To assess potentialeffects of these anthropogenic impacts on the bacterioplanktonthree sampling sites, influenced as well as not influenced bythe industrial discharge, were chosen for comparison andsampled monthly from November 1997 to October 1998. Bacterialabundance ranged between 0.4 to 3.0 × 10⁶ cells ml^-1 with decreasing numbers along the depth profile. Theproportion of actively respiring bacteria, i.e. INT [2-(4-iodophenyl)-3-(4-nitrophenyl)-5-phenyltetrazolium chloride]reducing cells, never exceeded 10% of DAPI (4',6'-diamidino-2-phenylindole) stained cells. Fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) was used to examine the seasonal and spatial distribution of dominant phylogenetic groups of thebacterioplankton. Up to 84% of bacteria detected with DAPIcould be detected via FISH applying the universal bacterialprobe EUB338. Percentages of alpha- and beta-Proteobacteriaand members of the Cytophaga-Flavobacterium cluster did notexceed 60% of DAPI-stained cells.Beta-Proteobacteriaappeared to be the most abundant group, not only in Traunsee butalso in two reference lakes, Attersee and Hallstättersee. No significant differences in any of the bacterial parameters couldbe detected between the three sampling sites and all measurementswere found in the range reported for oligotrophic lakes. The highdischarge of the Traun River, resulting in a lake water renewaltime of only one year, may diminish possible effects of industrial waste discharge in the pelagic zone.     

谈森林防火中的计划火烧

计划火烧是预防森林火灾的一种有效手段,成本低,效果显著。本文详细阐述了计划火烧的意义和作用、计划火烧前的准备工作,并提出了计划火烧的注意事项及实际操作要领。     

经济体制转轨下的环境管理模式初探

党的十五大提出发展多种形式的公有制经济,在这种新形势下,环境管理如何转轨,本文进行了探讨和研究。     

Short-term wind speed forecasting based on random forest model combining ensemble empirical mode decomposition and improved harmony search algorithm

ABSTRACT

Wind speed forecasting plays an important role in power grid dispatching management. This article proposes a short-term wind speed forecasting method based on random forest model combining ensemble empirical modal decomposition and improved harmony search algorithm. First, the initial wind speed data set is decomposed into several ensemble empirical mode functions by EEMD, then feature extraction of each sub-modal IMF is performed using fast Fourier transform to solve the cycle of each sub-modal IMF. Next, combining the high-performance parameter optimization ability of the improved harmony search algorithm, two optimal parameters of random forest model, number of decision trees, and number of split features are determined. Finally, the random forest model is used to forecast the processing results of each submodal IMF. The proposed model is applied to the simulation analysis of historical wind data of Chaoyang District, Liaoning Province from April 27, 2015 to May 22, 2015. To illustrate the suitability and superiority of the EEMD-RF-IHS model, three types of models are used for comparison: single models including ANN, SVM, RF; EMD combination models including EMD-ANN, EMD-SVM, EMD-RF; EEMD combination models including EEMD-ANN, EEMD-SVM, EEMD-RF. The analysis results of evaluation indicators show that the proposed model can effectively forecast short-term wind data with high stability and precision, providing a reference for forecasting application in other industry fields.     

考虑纵横弯曲的空间杆系有限元计算

在普通刚架有限元计算模型的基础上 ,推导出了考虑空间纵横弯曲有限元的单元刚度矩阵和形函数 ,单元刚度矩阵和形函数考虑了轴力的影响。并以此编制了“kjgj”有限元软件 ,软件考虑了轴力引起的二阶效应。用平面和空间算例进行验证 ,单根杆件只剖分一个单元计算得到的精度可以达到商业软件剖分多个单元达到的精度。     

岷江流域地表水水质的模糊综合评价

岷江是长江上游的一个重要支流，其水质安全对维持成都平原正常的生产生活起着至关重要的作用。采用模糊综合评价的方法，对岷江流域14个地表水监测断面的水质状况进行了综合评价。结果表明：在14个监测断面中，处于清洁和未污染程度的断面占50％，主要位于岷江流域的上游和下游，其水质状况较好；处于重污染的断面占29％，主要位于岷江流域的中游，水质状况较差。因此，需要加强流域综合治理尤其是对岷江中游的治理，以确保岷江流域的水质安全。