A Bayesian network approach to modelling land-use decisions under environmental policy incentives in the Brazilian Amazon

ABSTRACT

Deforestation driven by agricultural expansion is a major threat to the biodiversity of the Amazon Basin. Modelling how deforestation responds to environmental policy implementation has thus become a policy relevant scientific undertaking. However, empirical parameterization of land-use/cover change (LUCC) models is challenging due to the high complexity and uncertainty of land-use decisions. Bayesian Network (BN) modelling provides an effective framework to integrate various data sources including expert knowledge. In this study, we integrate remote sensing products with data from farm-household surveys and a decision game to model LUCC at the BR-163, in Brazil. Our ‘business as usual’ scenario indicates cumulative forest cover loss in the study region of 8,000 km² between 2014 and 2030, whereas ‘intensified law-enforcement’ would reduce cumulative deforestation to 1,600 km² over the same time interval. Our findings underline the importance of conservation law enforcement in modulating the impact of agricultural market incentives on land cover change.     

森林土地利用变化及其对碳循环的影响

由于人口剧增，人类活动的影响不断加大，在过去100年全球土地利用／土地覆被发生了巨大的变化。最常见的土地利用变化是由森林转变为农业用地。森林砍伐使森林生态系统地上部生物量大大减少，砍伐后作农业用地，降低了植被生产力，减少了土壤有机质的输入，增强了腐殖质的矿化作用，有机质分解速率增加，有机碳贮量随之降低，从而影响到森林生态系统的碳循环，使大量碳元素释放到大气中，引起温室效应，导致全球变暖。另一个常见的土地利用变化是植树造林和森林恢复，这一过程可以增加森林生态系统的碳储量，从而减缓大气CO2体积分数的上升。     

"3S"在森林病虫害预警中的应用与展望

对“3S”技术在森林病虫害预警中的应用现状、作用进行了分析．运用3S技术,结合森林病虫害发生的特点,对可能引发的各种森林病虫害可以进行预警,指出了实现森林病虫害预警应解决的问题及应用前景。     

Recovery of Faunal Communities During Tropical Forest Regeneration

Abstract:  As mature tropical forests are cleared, secondary forests may play an important role in the conservation of animal species, depending on how fast animal communities recover during forest regeneration. I reviewed published studies on the recovery of animal species richness and composition during tropical forest regeneration. In 38 of the 39 data sets I examined, conversion of forest to agriculture or pasture substantially reduced species richness. Given suitable conditions for forest recovery, the species richness of the animal taxa considered can be predicted to resemble that of mature forests roughly 20–40 years after land abandonment. At least for ants and birds, however, recovery of species composition appears to take substantially longer than recovery of species richness. Because species richness for many taxa appears to recover relatively rapidly in secondary forests, conservation of secondary forests may be an effective investment in future diversity. The slower recovery of species composition indicates, however, that some species will require stands of mature forest to persist.     

岷江上游林草交错带祁连山圆柏群落的物种多样性及乔木种群的分布格局

应用5种多样性指数对祁连山圆柏群落的物种多样性进行了研究，并采用相邻格子样方法测定了乔木种群及其各立木级的分布格局．结果表明，灌木层的物种多样性偏低，而草本层多样性较高，群落总的物种多样性(以丰富度表示)较高．群落总的物种多样性较高是由于较低的灌木层多样性与较高的草本层多样性综合作用的结果，与放牧影响、阳坡的干燥环境有关，可能是林草交错区固有的特点．乔木种群的分布格局呈现出集群分布，但在其发育过程中显示了动态变化的特征，即在幼苗和小树阶段为集群分布，到了大树阶段转变为随机分布或均匀分布．表6参32     

Reproductive Investment of a Lacertid Lizard in Fragmented Habitat

Abstract:  We studied the effect of habitat fragmentation on female reproductive investment in a widespread lacertid lizard (  Psammodromus algirus ) in a mixed-forest archipelago of deciduous and evergreen oak woods in northern Spain. We captured gravid females in fragments (≤10 ha) and forests (≥ 200 ha) and brought them to the laboratory, where they laid their eggs. We incubated the eggs and released the first cohort of juveniles into the wild to monitor their survival. Females from fragments produced a smaller clutch mass and laid fewer eggs (relative to mean egg mass) than females of similar body size from forests. Lizards did not trade larger clutches for larger offspring, however, because females from fragments did not lay larger eggs (relative to their number) than females from forests. Among the first cohort of juveniles, larger egg mass and body size increased the probability of recapture the next year. Thus, fragmentation decreased the relative fecundity of lizards without increasing the quality of their offspring. Reduced energy availability, increased predation risk, and demographic stochasticity could decrease the fitness of lizards in fragmented habitats, which could contribute to the regional scarcity of this species in agricultural areas sprinkled with small patches of otherwise suitable forest. Our results show that predictable reduction of reproductive output with decreasing size of habitat patches can be added to the already known processes that cause inverse density dependence at low population numbers.     

EFFECTS OF BEST MANAGEMENT PRACTICES ON FOREST STREAMWATER QUALITY IN EASTERN KENTUCKY1

ABSTRACT: Forest land managers are concerned about the effects of logging on soil erosion, streamflow, and water quality and are promoting the use of Best Management Practices (BMPs) to control impacts. To compare the effects of BMP implementation on streamwater quality, two of three small watersheds in Kentucky were harvested in 1983 and 1984, one with BMPs, the other without BMPs. There was no effect of clearcutting on stream temperatures. Streamflow increased by 17.8 cm (123 percent) on the BMP watershed during the first 17 months after cutting and by 20.6 cm (138 percent) on the Non-BMP watershed. Water yields remained significantly elevated compared to the uncut watershed 8 years after harvesting. Suspended sediment flux was 14 and 30 times higher on the BMP and Non-BMP Watersheds, respectively, than on the uncut watershed during treatment, and 4 and 6.5 times higher in the 17 months after treatment was complete. Clearcutting resulted in increased concentrations of nitrate, and other nutrients compared to the uncut watershed, and concentrations were highest on the non-BMP watershed. Recovery of biotic control over nutrient losses occurred within three years of clearcutting. The streamside buffer strip was effective in reducing the impact of clearcutting on water yield and sediment flux.     

ESTIMATING THE Q100 IN BRITISH COLUMBIA: A PRACTICAL PROBLEM IN FOREST HYDROLOGY1

ABSTRACT. Estimates of peak flows, with specified return periods, are needed in practice for the design of works that affect streams in forested areas. In the province of British Columbia (B.C.), Canada, the new Forest Practices Code specifies the 100-year instantaneous peak flow (Q100) for the design of bridges and culverts for stream crossings under forest roads; and many practitioners are engaged in making such estimates. The state of the art is still quite primitive, very similar to the state of urban hydrology 30 years ago, when popular estimating techniques were used with little consideration given to their applicability. Urban hydrology then evolved on a much more scientific basis, such that within about a 10-year period, standard approaches to design were developed. Forest hydrology should follow the same pattern, at least as far as estimating design flows is concerned. Popular present day design procedures include the rational method and other empirical approaches based on rainfall data, as use of the standard flood frequency approach is limited by the paucity of relevant flow data. Estimating procedures based on peak streamflow measurements and statistics are likely to evolve, and these will include distinctions for rain, snowmelt, and rain on snow floods. Guidelines will also be developed for selecting and applying appropriate procedures for particular areas.     

RESEARCH ISSUES IN FOREST HYDROLOGY1

ABSTRACT: This paper explores a range of forest hydrology issues and identifies my concepts of the field's most pressing research needs. I extend the topic to include teaching and education in the broader sense because current teaching is usually part of the researcher's portfolio and because education involves that of both the research scientist and a broader audience. I consider the primary research, education, and service roles of the forest hydrologist also within a range of domains or, as I prefer to identify them, scales: (1) the molecular or pore level; (2) hydrological process; (3) watershed function; (4) global considerations, and (5) the human dimension which, while not actually a scale itself, embraces, is important to, and is affected by the first four. All are topics screaming for attention by researchers, educators, and practitioners. I shall here focus on the middle three.