中国监狱震害及应急预案

根据对1904～2003年我国监狱28次震害资料的收集、分析和评价,把监狱震害分为严重、中等和轻微3级;从这些震害的时序变化来看,认为监狱的震害有随时间减小的趋势。监狱作为特殊的建筑物,由于其内居住的是在押犯,因此其应急工作是地震应急的重要组成部分,对其应有许多特殊的对策。此外,还讨论了震害发生时对在押犯人的转移和管理,对在押犯受伤后的伤病处理及教育感化,注意对在押犯中不轨之徒的打击震慑以及对在应急救灾中有立功表现的在押犯予以鼓励并接受在押犯参与赈灾捐赠等问题。最后,提出了制定监狱地震应急预案的提纲。     

地震块体模型的共轭剪切破裂带数值模拟

对地震块体模型的应变率场的数值模拟结果表明 ,地震块体模型 ,尤其是当界面法向和切向刚度较大时 ,能产生明显的共轭剪切破裂带。地震块体模型存在老断层 ,呈现各向异性 ,因而 ,促进了某一方向上的主条带充分发展 ,与主条带共轭的次条带被抑制。存在复杂地质构造可能是地震带的间隔距离并不严格相等的原因。地震发生在剪切破裂带交叉部位的原因是这一位置剪切应变率较高。考察应变率场能揭示出地震块体模型的应变局部化特征。在构造运动作用下 ,新生构造与老构造并不重叠是可能的 ,因而 ,新生构造的交汇点就不一定出现在老断层上。地震块体模型的中心块体的尺寸越大 ,中心块体越稳定     

一个特殊的地震空区

1999 11 0 1,山西省大同市发生了M5 6地震 ,此前 10个月在其震源附近曾发生一群震源定位结果较好的小震。从小震在三维空间的分布情况看 ,在垂直剖面上存在一个NWW向的特殊空区 ,且似乎存在围空地震按顺时针方向旋转发生的现象。采用层状介质点源位错模型 ,由理论地震图拟合观测的垂直向记录 P、 S最大振幅的比值反演小地震震源机制的方法 ,使用大同地震台网和其他地震台网部分台站的记录资料 ,求得小地震的震源机制解。这些震源机制解在 4个象限中呈现出了不同的性质 ,且每两个相对象限中震源机制解的性质相近。5 .6级地震发生在该空区的边缘 ,而余震序列将其填充 ,余震区的长轴方向和空区方向相同。     

地震直接损失的多因素灰色关联分析

根据对多次历史地震直接损失资料的统计和定性分析,应用灰色系统理论,分析了计算各影响因素与地震直接损失的关联度,并对其进行了排序,研究结果客观地揭示了地震直接损失与各影响因素之间的相互关系。     

AUTOMATED WEB GIS BASED HYDROGRAPH ANALYSIS TOOL,WHAT1

The separation of the base flow component from a varying streamflow hydrograph is called “hydrograph analysis.” In this study, two digital filter based separation modules, the BFLOW and Eckhardt filters, were incorporated into the Web based Hydrograph Analysis Tool (WHAT) system. A statistical component was also developed to provide fundamental information for flow frequency analysis and time series analysis. The Web Geographic Information System (GIS) version of the WHAT system accesses and uses U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) daily streamflow data from the USGS web server. The results from the Eckhardt filter method were compared with the results from the BFLOW filter method that was previously validated, since measured base flow data were not available for this study. Following validation, the two digital filter methods in the WHAT system were run for 50 Indiana gaging stations. The Nash‐Sutcliffe coefficient values comparing the results of the two digital filter methods were over 0.91 for all 50 gaging stations, suggesting the filtered base flow using the Eckhardt filter method will typically match measured base flow. Manual separation of base flow from streamflow can lead to inconsistency in the results, while the WHAT system provides consistent results in less than a minute. Although base flow separation algorithms in the WHAT system cannot consider reservoir release and snowmelt that can affect stream hydrographs, the Web based WHAT system provides an efficient tool for hydrologic model calibration and validation. The base flow information from the WHAT system can also play an important role for sustainable ground water and surface water exploitation, including irrigation and industrial uses, and estimation of pollutant loading from both base flow and direct runoff. Thus, best management practices can be appropriately applied to reduce and intercept pollutant leaching if base flow contributes significant amounts of pollutants to the stream. This Web GIS based system also demonstrates how remote, distributed resources can be shared through the Internet using Web programming.     

基于模糊概率的震害预测模型及其应用

将模糊数学中的模糊概率理论应用于震害预测之中,建立了模糊概率的震害预测模型.并应用此模型对单层砖排架柱厂房进行了震害预测;算例表明,该预测模型概念清晰,计算简单,效果较好.     

指数型刚度非线性隔震系统的隔震性能分析

目前应用的隔震系统往往处于非线性工作状态,隔震设计仍基本停留在线性隔震理论的基础上,使隔震系统的设计存在诸多缺陷,因此加强对非线性隔震理论的研究十分重要。用指数型刚度表示的隔震系统在非线性隔震系统中有较强的代表性,只要改变指数参数的正负号就可以简单地反映出隔震材料或隔震元件的硬特性或软特性。通过对隔震系统建立的数学模型在核爆近区和远区的地冲击加速度作用下的隔震性能进行数值计算分析,证明隔震系统刚度特性对隔震性能有很大影响,该分析方法对隔震材料的选择和系统的设计有重要的参考价值。     

工程建设中的灾害评价

本文对工程建设项目可能遭遇的地质和地震灾害以及可能造成的环境影响依法实施评价工作进行了探讨,并对评价工作的意义及存在问题进行的分析,提出了解决相关问题和矛盾的方法和措施.     

Toleration of Traffic by Vegetation: Life Form Conclusions and Summary Extracts from a Comprehensive Data Base

/ An exhaustive search of the literature for foot and vehicle traffic impacts on vegetation has yielded more than 400 citations, two thirds of which held sufficient detail to be usefully distilled into a personal-computer data base. A total of 1444 individual observations involving 737 species that were trampled are included. Compromises were made in the depth of entry detail and to allow comparability among data. Inconsistent, generally short-term, experimental practices disallowed formal statistical analyses. Within those constraints, graminoids emerged with the highest mean resistance and resilience among life-forms. Climbers and cactoids ranked lowest in these categories. The herbaceous, typically broader-leaved (forb) life-form appeared most likely to suffer immediate losses. Shrubs and trees had the longest-lasting decreases in diversity following traffic impact. All life-forms had sensitive species. The greatest general species and individual plant losses take place in the first few passes by feet, wheels, or tracks. Plant and soil damage increases with the amount of weight and power applied. Greater soil moisture and/or deeper overstory shading magnify those impacts. Additional precepts may become apparent to data-base users through increased ease in making comparisons.KEY WORDS: Vegetation; Trampling; Vehicles; Traffic; Resistance; Resilience; Data base     

准确快速科学评估地震灾害及其损失的方法

以江苏省常熟－太仓５．１级地震现场震害评估和经济损失分析工作为基础，结合江苏省地震重点监视防御区震灾快速预测，讨论准确快速科学评估地震灾害及其损失的途径和方法。