UNCERTAINTY OF EXTREME FLOOD ESTIMATES INCORPRATING HISTORICAL DATA1

ABSTRACT: The ability to predict extreme floods is an important part of the planning process for any water project for which failure will be very costly. The length of a gage record available for use in estimating extreme flows is generally much shorter than the recurrence interval of the desired flows, resulting in estimates having a high degree of uncertainty. Maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters of the three parameter lognormal (3PLN) distribution, which make use of historical data, are presented. A Monte Carlo study of extreme flows estimated from samples drawn from three hypothetical 3PLN populations showed that inclusion of historical flows with the gage record reduced the bias and variance of extreme flow estimates. Asymptotic theory approximations of parameter variances and covariances calculated using the second and mixed partial derivatives of the log likelihood function agreed well with Monte Carlo results. First order approximations of the standard deviations of the extreme flow estimates did not agree with the Monte Carlo results. An alternative method for calculating those standard deviations, the “asymptotic simulation” method, is described. The standard deviations calculated by asymptotic simulation agree well with the Monte Carlo results.     

AQUIFER PARAMETERS FROM CONSTANT DRAWDOWN NONSTEADY-LEAKY TYPE CURVES1

ABSTRACT: A drain function and set of type curves were defined for the mathematical solution that represents one-dimensional flow under nonsteady conditions in a leaky aquifer for the constant drawdown boundary condition. A match point procedure was developed for determining the aquifer parameters transmissivity, storage coefficient, and leakance based on the drain function and type curves. Use of the procedure is illustrated by an example that utilizes simulated aquifer drawdowns and flowrate data. The drain function and type curves developed in this investigation include the effects of leakage for the constant drawdown boundary condition, which is not included in the existing drain function and type curve found in the literature. Thus, a new set of type curves was developed that can be used to analyze drawdowns for one-dimensional flow in a leaky aquifer with constant drawdown at a line sink. Applications would include flow to a canal or river, drainage of agricultural lands, and dewatering associated with strip mining operations.     

金刚石钻进规程的实验室模拟及参数校核

金刚石钻进的钻进规程决定了钻进效率和钻头的使用寿命，也决定了钻进的安全性、可靠性和经济效益。因此，选择最佳的钻进规程尤其重要。本文通过智能微钻实验台对金刚石钻进的模拟钻进参数及其变化曲线、参数值，以及对应的钻进速度、进尺变化曲线、参数值进行分析，得到相应岩石条件下的最优钻进规程。     

Effects of temperature on population growth and intake of food by the army worm, Mythimna separata (Walker)

Population life tables of the army worm, Mythimna separata, were constructed and nutritional parameters of food for the larvae were examined at 5 temperatures from 16℃ to 32℃. The temperature suitable for growth and reproduction of the insect ranged from 20℃ to 28℃ with the optimum of 24℃. Their survivalship and fecundity were much poorer at 32℃ than at 16℃. Indices of population trend of the insect at these temperatures could well fitted with the parabolic curve which theoretically indicated that the population density would multiply by some 660 after one generation circle at the optimal temperature, 22.6℃, and it would decline at temperatures higher than 32.9℃ or lower than 12.3℃. Larval food intake and their AD tended to go up while their ECI and ECD to go down with a rise in temperature. These alterations in population size and feeding behavior caused by temperature would exert an important effect on their damage to crops.     

我国城市污水几种处理工艺简介

介绍了近年来城市污水处理工程中常见的几种处理工艺和主要设计参数。     

Performances of the cotton bollworm,Heliothis armigera (Hubner) at different temperatures and relative humidities

The cotton bollworm, Heliothis armigera (Hubner) is an important insect species at-tacking many crops. Their performances have been examined at temperatures from 15℃ to 35℃ and relative humidities (RH) between 22.5% and 100%, respectively, in order to assess possible effect of climate in future on its occurrence and infestation. Durations of all developmental stages of the insect shortened with increasing temperature. The temperature favoring population growth ranged from 25℃ to 30℃.Larval duration and adult longevity decreased as relative humidity increased, but development of other stages was independent of RH. At RH of over 64%, their survival rate, egg production and oviposition rate varied a little, and all the population parameters of the insect remained at a relative constant level.     

聚丙烯环管反应器参数安全性分析

采用参数敏感性分析方法对聚丙烯装置环管反应器反应温度、转化率对初温的安全敏感性进行了研究。结果表明,反应初温在72~74℃的范围属于反应器的温度敏感区域,超过74℃则进入温度极敏感区域,可引起反应器堵塞、出料泵过载,严重时可造成非正常停车、甚至超压爆炸事故。     

Effects of temperature on population growth and intake of food by the army worm, Mythimna separata (Walker)

Population life tables of the army worm, Mythimna separata, were constructed and nutritional parameters of food for the larvae were examined at 5 temperatures from 16℃ to 32℃. The temperature suitable for growth and reproduction of the insect ranged from 20℃ to 28℃ with the optimum of 24℃. Their survivalship and fecundity were much poorer at 32℃ than at 16℃. Indices of population trend of the insect at these temperatures could well fitted with the parabolic curve which theoretically indicated that the population density would multiply by some 660 after one generation circle at the optimal temperature, 22.6℃, and it would decline at temperatures higher than 32.9℃ or lower than 12.3℃. Larval food intake and their AD tended to go up while their ECI and ECD to go down with a rise in temperature. These alterations in population size and feeding behavior caused by temperature would exert an important effect on their damage to crops.     

Influencing factors and prediction of ambient Peroxyacetyl nitrate concentration in Beijing, China

Peroxyacyl nitrates (PANs) are important secondary pollutants in ground-level atmosphere. Accurate prediction of atmospheric pollutant concentrations is crucial to guide effective precautions for before and during specific pollution events. In this study, four models based on the back-propagation (BP) artificial neural network (ANN) and multiple linear regression (MLR) methods were used to predict the hourly average PAN concentrations at Peking University, Beijing, in 2014. The model inputs were atmospheric pollutant data and meteorological parameters. Model 3 using a BP-ANN based on the original variables achieved the best prediction results among the four models, with a correlation coefficient (R) of 0.7089, mean bias error of ? 0.0043 ppb, mean absolute error of 0.4836?ppb, root mean squared error of 0.5320?ppb, and Willmott's index of agreement of 0.8214. Based on a comparison of the performance indices of the MLR and BP-ANN models, we concluded that the BP-ANN model was able to capture the highly non-linear relationships between PAN concentration and the conventional atmospheric pollutant and meteorological parameters, providing more accurate results than the traditional MLR models did, with a markedly higher goodness of R. The selected meteorological and atmospheric pollutant parameters described a sufficient amount of PAN variation, and thus provided satisfactory prediction results. More specifically, the BP-ANN model performed very well for capturing the variation pattern when PAN concentrations were low. The findings of this study address some of the existing knowledge gaps in this research field and provide a theoretical basis for future regional air pollution control.     

Early genetic amniocentesis—4 years' experience

Four hundred and thirty early amniocenteses (EAC) from 10 to 14 weeks' gestation were compared with 300 routine amniocenteses (RAC) from 15 weeks' gestation (control A) and 733 routine amniocenteses from 16 to 18 weeks' gestation (control B) with regard to success rates, various growth parameters, and cytogenetic results. Using both in situ and trypsiniz-ation techniques, the success rate was 99·8 per cent for EAC versus 100 per cent for RAC. The average turn-around time for establishing a diagnosis was 8·4 days in EAC versus 8·3 days in 15 weeks' specimens (n.s.) and 7·7 days in 16 to 18 weeks' specimens (p ≦ 0·0001) for the last 200 samples. The banding quality of early specimens compared favourably with that of controls (both 500–550 bphs) and was much better than that in long-term cultured chorionic villus sampling (CVS) (350–400 bphs). For level I and level II mosaicism, no statistically significant differences were noted between EAC and control group A. Comparing EAC with control group B, a significant increase in the number of numerical and structural single cell aberrations was observed (p ≦ 0·025 and p ≦ 0·001, respectively), whereas for multiple cell aberrations only the increase in numerical aberrations was statistically significant (p ≦ 0·001) (x²-test). Clinical problems arising from the detection of mosaicism were solved in all cases by investigating parallel cultures. It is concluded that early amniocentesis is a reliable procedure which permits prenatal diagnosis of numerical and structural chromosome aberrations to a high standard.