淮河流域洪涝变化的混沌特征

从功率谱结构,Ｌｙａｐｕｎｏｖ指数,吸收子维数和可预报时间等方面分析了淮河流域洪涝变化的混沌性质,研究表明淮河流域洪涝变化是一类混沌变化序列,洪涝系统是一类混沌为动力系统,系统时初值极端敏感,长期和不可预测,其可报预时间约为５－６年。     

The Case of Sarno River (Southern Italy). Effects of geomorphology on the environmental impacts (8 pp)

Background, Aim and Scope Analysis of the morphological, geological and environmental characteristics of the Sarno River basin has shown the present degraded condition of the area. Over the past thirty years, the supply of untreated effluent of domestic, agricultural and industrial origin has ensured the presence of high concentrations of pollutants, including heavy metals. The geological context of the catchment area has played a major part in determining the current ecological conditions and public health problems: while human activity has modified the landscape, the natural order has indirectly contributed to increasing the environmental impact. Results and Discussion The health situation is precarious as the basin's inhabitants feed on agricultural and animal products, and use polluted water directly or indirectly. The hazard of contracting degenerative illnesses of the digestive or respiratory apparatus, bacterial infections or some neoplasia has gradually increased, especially in the last five years. Moreover, polluted basin waters flowing into the Bay of Naples increase sea water contamination, thereby damaging tourism, public health and degrading the local littoral quality. Conclusion The overview presented shows how the environmental state of the Sarno River basin gives considerable cause for concern. The basin's complex geomorphologic setting has a direct bearing on local environmental and health conditions. The analysis of the available data demonstrates how the physical aspects of the area are closely linked to the diffusion and concentration of the pollutants, and how the latter ones have a large influence on the hygienic-sanitary conditions of the local population. Recommendation and Perspective Specific interventions need to be undertaken to monitor and improve the chemical, physical and microbiological conditions of water and sediments, especially in light of the geomorphological vulnerability of the river basin.     

鄱阳湖流域环境治理的公共政策分析

随着江西省工业化进程的加快,鄱阳湖流域正承受着日益严重环境污染和生态破坏.然而,工业化是江西省实现经济腾飞的必然选择,可以预计,鄱阳湖流域必将面临沉重的环境压力.本文基于公共政策分析的视角,探讨了实现鄱阳湖流域环境良治的政策选择与条件支撑.     

LUMP SUM TAX LOSS REIMBURSEMENT UNDER THE THAMES RIVER FLOOD CONTROL COMPACT1

ABSTRACT: Under the terms of the Thames River Valley Flood Control Compact, Connecticut has been paying Massachusetts 40 percent of the annual property tax losses suffered by seven Massachusetts towns where four flood control structures were located. The permissable alternative of a single lump sum payment was investigated in the study summarized here. The lump sum payment should be the proportion of total benefits (flood control and recreation) from the four structures which Connecticut receives, multiplied by the present value of projected tax losses in the seven tom Flood control benefits and their distribution between the two states were fixed in the Compact, but a survey was necessary to determine recreational benefits and their distribution. Regression analysis of 1957 to 1978 tax loss data provided equations used to project future tax losses. Resent values of projected tax low were calculated using discount rates ranging from 6 to 12 percent. A plausible range of lump sum reinbursements as of 1979 was identified.     

An examination of community flood warning systems: Are we providing the right assistance?

The technology transfer of flood warning systems offers a large potential for reducing human losses and property damage in flood-prone regions; much of the technology and methodology is readily transferable from developed countries and “appropriate” for developing countries. This paper examines some community folk warning systems in the United States that could be incorporated into a rational strategy for technology transfer. It discusses why official organized systems should not be relied on completely and how participation in and transfer of highly cost-effective and reliable community warning systems by development assistance agencies could greatly benefit the people as well as the governments of developing countries.     

四川盆地大洪涝灾害的特点和变化规律及防治对策

四川盆地的大洪涝灾害是由暴雨和大暴雨引起的。具以下6个特点；一次大洪涝灾害发生时，降水强度大，降水量多且集中，灾害严重，损失巨大；发生频率高，大强度灾害多；时空分布不均；开始期主要在6、7月；终期主要在9月，初终期有很好的对应关系。它的强度、初终期等都有变化规律。防治它的对策是治、防、用、护四结合。     

云南小江流域的泥石流灾害

云南东北部的小江流域是我国泥石流灾害严重地区。本文就其形成原因、运动特征、灾害简况和防治实例作了阐述,并结合生物措施与工程措施的情况,概括出“稳”、“拦”、“排”的治理对策。     

木沥河流域氮素污染及其污染源解析

为甄别粤港澳大湾区木沥河流域氮污染物来源,本研究应用铵盐同位素示踪技术、硝酸盐同位素示踪技术和多元线性混合模型等方法有效识别了该流域氮素来源的变化.结果表明,木沥河流域氮素污染严重,木沥河水体NH~+_4-N和NO~-_3-N浓度显著高于上游两条支流;除此之外,大坑山支流断面和木沥河下游养殖区断面虽无明显人口居住,仍然面临较高的氮素污染风险.铵盐同位素和硝酸盐同位素定性分析结果表明,木沥河流域氮素污染主要来源于土壤、肥料、大气颗粒物和动物及人排泄物;多元线性混合模型计算结果显示,大坑山支流上流处氮素主要来源为大气沉降,其贡献率在80%左右;鸡笼坑支流上游土壤有机氮平均贡献率可达33%,大于大坑山支流(9%)和木沥河(24%);大坑山支流下游、鸡笼坑支流下游和木沥河中上游污水及粪肥对氮素污染贡献率最高可达70%;值得注意的是,养殖区断面远离人口聚集地,各种养殖已被清理,但污水及粪肥的贡献率仍高达56%,远高于木沥河下游的淡水河水闸断面(3%),这可能要归咎于沉积物中残留的禽畜排泄物.本研究定性和定量地分析了木沥河流域氮素来源,为大湾区的水质管理和污染源治理提供了理论依据.     

广西西江流域农田土壤重金属含量特征及来源解析

为探明西江流域农田土壤重金属污染分布特征及主要影响因素,采集2 187个农田土壤样品,测试其重金属含量.采用地统计理论与GIS空间插值相结合的方法研究重金属元素的空间结构和分布特征;利用潜在生态风险指数作风险评估;采用相关性分析和主成分分析等多元统计方法解析重金属来源.结果表明,西江流域农田土壤7种重金属元素在土壤中均有一定程度的富集,其中重金属Cd富集情况最为明显,独立样本T检验结果显示,旱地土壤与水田土壤重金属含量存在显著差异(P0.05),水田土壤Cd含量显著高于相应旱地土壤;西江流域农田土壤Cd存在较高的潜在生态风险.相关分析和主成分分析结果显示,土壤中Pb、Zn、As、Cd、Cu的富集是由矿业活动、交通和污水灌溉等人为因素引起的,Ni和Cr则受成土母质等自然因素影响较大.从空间分布上看,流域上游As、Cd、Pb、Zn、Cu高含量区均分布于刁江流域及大环江流域,其中Cd高值分布范围最广,南丹县大厂车河地区高值样点最为密集,说明矿区活动给当地农田土壤造成了一定程度的重金属污染.     

南方红壤侵蚀流域水稻田中稀土元素的迁移累积特征

稀土元素通过植物吸收经食物链最终进入人体,并在人体中累积,进而影响食用人群的健康.水稻作为我国南方地区的主要粮食和经济作物,是人们生存的基础.本文通过南方花岗岩红壤侵蚀流域水稻植株根系土壤及其各部位稀土元素含量的调查,探究稀土元素在土壤-水稻系统中的迁移累积特征.结果表明:研究区土壤中稀土元素含量平均值为389.02 mg·kg~(-1),水稻土壤中呈现出重稀土元素相对富集的特点.土壤中稀土元素在Eu处呈亏损状态;除10号样点外,其他样点土壤的稀土元素在Ce处呈富集状态.水稻植株不同部位的稀土元素含量差异较大,水稻根、叶及稻谷中稀土元素含量的平均值分别为152.63、5.03和0.64 mg·kg~(-1),呈根叶稻谷的规律.稻谷中的稀土元素含量虽未超过日均稀土元素的摄入量(5.33μg·kg~(-1)·d~(-1)),但长期食用仍存在一定的健康风险.土壤稀土元素向水稻植株各部位的转移能力差异较大,呈根叶稻谷的规律.