青海省限制开发区人口容量研究

对主体功能区划分后,必然会由此突现一些问题,其中合理的人口容量就是亟待解决的关键问题之一。青海省地处青藏高原东北部,是连接青藏高原,西北地区及华中地区的重要区域,其区域内有三江源等重要的生态功能区,该区域的生态建设和经济发展具有很重要的意义。尤其是在青海省内限制开发区面积较大,其发展更有着举足轻重的作用。本文以青海省主体功能区的划分为基础,借鉴相关的研究成果,利用适度人口容量的PRE预测方法,预测并讨论青海省限制开发区的适度人口容量,分析了适度人口容量和该地区可持续发展的关系,提出了人口迁移的意见,将对青海省主体功能区的形成和发展有一定的借鉴和帮助。     

环鄱阳湖区生态足迹与经济产业发展关系的实证研究

生态足迹是衡量区域生态承载力状况的一个较成熟的方法。首先通过计量模型计量出环鄱阳湖区1989~2008年生态足迹的时间序列值,并评价了其承载状况。结果显示,近20 a来,环鄱阳湖区的生态足迹从1989年的1 401万hm2提升到2008年的3 145万hm2,呈波动上升趋势;生态承载力从1989年的6 255万hm2上升至2008年的7 215万hm2,基本上呈不断上升的变化趋势。环鄱阳湖区生态承载力能满足区域的生态足迹需求,表现出生态盈余,但其盈余空间从1989年的4 220万hm2降低至2008年的4 069万hm2,总体上呈减少趋势。其次,将生态足迹与区域的经济总量和三次产业进行协整分析后得出,生态足迹的GDP弹性为035,其三次产业的弹性分别为0668 3、0011、0049 4。最后,从加强土地管理、强化区域贸易、改变消费方式、完善产业体系等角度提出了协调环鄱阳湖区生态环境与经济产业发展的政策措施     

土壤石油污染环境容量的评估与模拟研究

文章基于对某滨海油区环境和生态进行调研分析的结果,选择一般参数法、综合估值法和数值模拟法三种方法对土壤石油污染的环境容量进行评估和模拟研究。研究分析了污染物在土壤中的时空分布,预测分析污染物迁移趋势和范围,综合探讨了研究区土壤石油污染的环境容量,可为制订有关环境标准和加强土壤石油烃排放管理提供技术依据和参考。     

城市规划中的大气环境容量研究

以秦皇岛市经济技术开发区为研究样区,基于ADMS-LP计算了秦皇岛经济技术开发区的大气环境容量,并从工程减排、管理减排和结构减排三个方面提出了总量控制措施,以期为在城市规划中确定合理的建设用地布局以及工业企业类型提供依据。     

微波辅助-活性炭法处理电厂EDTA锅炉清洗废水可行性研究

采用微波辅助-活性炭法处理电厂EDTA锅炉清洗废水,研究了微波辐射时间、微波功率以及再生次数对活性炭吸附能力的影响,并根据实验结果设计了工艺流程,分析了微波辅助-活性炭法处理电厂EDTA锅炉清洗废水的可行性.研究表明,微波辅助-活性炭法处理EDTA清洗废水的最佳微波辐射时间和微波功率分别为5 min和680 W,微波辐...     

中国财产保险业巨灾损失赔付能力实证分析

商业保险是社会化巨灾风险分散机制的重要组成部分,要在中国现阶段巨灾事件频发的复杂环境中构建合理的损失分摊机制,不能不考虑以损失补偿为主要功能的财产保险业应对巨灾损失的能力。在Cummins、Doherty和Anita的保险赔付能力度量模型框架及改进后的损失对数正态分布假设下,引入1998～2008年中国财产保险业经营数据,对2009年初时点上在中国大陆经营财产保险业务的39家财产保险公司及全行业巨灾损失赔付能力进行了实证分析。结果显示,由于全行业资本与盈余的低水平以及再保险市场发展的严重滞后,在1 200亿到2 000亿元的损失区间内,中国财产保险业的赔付能力缺口在26.8亿到815.6亿元之间,且缺口增长速度大于损失增长速度。通过与2008年初的赔付能力实证分析结果对比发现,灾害频发的2008年客观上显著降低了中国财产保险行业应对极端损失的能力。度量结果从实证基础上昭示了政府大力扶持和参与巨灾保险体系建设的必要性和紧迫性。     

The influence of neighborhood traffic density on the respiratory health of elementary schoolchildren

Background

Several studies have found that living near major roadways is associated with an increase in respiratory illness but few studies have measured the volume and type of traffic.

Objective

We investigated the relation between traffic volume and respiratory health of 2328 children 9 to 11 years old in the city of Windsor, Canada.

Methods

We identified the roadways within a 200 meter radius of the child's neighborhood using the latitude and longitude of the residential postal code. Traffic exposure was defined as the sum of the annual volume of vehicles on all of these roadways. Volume was calculated using sensors to detect passing vehicles (simple traffic counts), and by counts and direction of traffic at intersections (turning movement counts). Ventilatory lung function was measured by spirometry and airway inflammation by exhaled nitric oxide (eNO).

Results

The odds ratio between an interquartile increase in truck turning movement counts and chest congestion was 1.20 (1.06-1.35). The percentage of predicted FVC declined 0.68%, (95% CI 1.32, 0.03) for an interquartile increase in simple traffic counts (33,787 vehicles daily). Among those with self-reported asthma, effect sizes were larger. Percentage predicted FEV₁ declined 1.84% (95% CI 0.07, 3.61) associated with an interquartile range increase in turning movement counts. No statistically significant change was detected between traffic measures and exhaled nitric oxide.

Conclusions

Our findings provide further support for the hypothesis that neighborhood exposure to traffic-related air pollution increases respiratory symptoms and reduces ventilatory function in children, especially those with self-reported asthma.     

基于双指标的安康水库防洪预报调度规则研究

随着水文预报水平的提高,考虑预报信息的防洪预报调度方式日益受到重视。对安康水库实施防洪预报调度的可行性进行了分析,采用“逐级调节法”反复试算修正,确定了以“预报累积净雨量”为主判断指标、“库水位”为辅助指标的安康水库双指标防洪预报调度规则,并对设计洪水及实际洪水进行了调节,调节结果与常规调度比较,水库水位提前降低至汛限水位以下,增加了防洪库容,减小了洪峰段下泄流量,降低了水库最高水位,提高了防洪能力。同时选择不同起调水位,对设计洪水及实际洪水进行调节, 确定合适起调水位,并分析了预报调度和常规调度的风险。结果显示：起调水位抬升,防洪预报调度的风险有所增加,但仍小于常规调度风险,为更好的实现洪水资源的有效利用,建议预报调度起调水位定为3260 m     

Accumulation of hydroxylated polychlorinated biphenyls (OH-PCBs) and implications for PCBs metabolic capacities in three porpoise species

The present study investigated polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and hydroxylated metabolites of PCBs (OH-PCBs) in blood from three porpoise species: finless porpoises (Neophocaena phocaenoides), harbor porpoises (Phocoena phocoena), and Dall’s porpoises (Phocoenoides dalli). The porpoises were found stranded or were bycaught along the Japanese coast. Concentrations of OH-PCB were the highest in Dall’s porpoises (58 pg g⁻¹ wet wt), second highest in finless porpoises (20 pg g⁻¹ wet wt), and lowest in harbor porpoises (8.3 pg g⁻¹ wet wt). The concentrations in Dall’s porpoises were significantly higher than the concentrations in finless porpoises and harbor porpoises (p < 0.05 and p < 0.01, respectively). There was a positive correlation between PCB and OH-PCB concentrations (r = 0.67, p < 0.001), suggesting the possible concentration-dependent induction of CYP enzymes. The three porpoise species may have exceptionally low metabolic capacities compared with other marine and terrestrial mammals, because low OH-PCB/PCB concentration ratios were found, which were 0.0016 for Dall’s porpoises, 0.0013 for harbor porpoises, and 0.00058 for finless porpoises. Distinct differences in the OH-PCB congener patterns were observed for the three species, even though they are taxonomically closely related.