Efficacy of Land-Cover Models in Predicting Isolation of Marbled Salamander Populations in a Fragmented Landscape

Abstract:  Amphibians worldwide are facing rapid declines due to habitat loss and fragmentation, disease, and other causes. Where habitat alteration is implicated, there is a need for spatially explicit conservation plans. Models built with geographic information systems (GIS) are frequently used to inform such planning. We explored the potential for using GIS models of functional landscape connectivity as a reliable proxy for genetically derived measures of population isolation. We used genetic assignment tests to characterize isolation of marbled salamander populations and evaluated whether the relative amount of modified habitat around breeding ponds was a reliable indicator of population isolation. Using a resampling analysis, we determined whether certain land-cover variables consistently described population isolation. We randomly drew half the data for model building and tested the performance of the best models on the other half 100 times. Deciduous forest was consistently associated with lower levels of population isolation, whereas salamander populations in regions of agriculture and anthropogenic development were more isolated. Models that included these variables and pond size explained 65–70% of variation in genetically inferred isolation across sites. The resampling analysis confirmed that these habitat variables were consistently good predictors of isolation. Used judiciously, simple GIS models with key land-cover variables can be used to estimate population isolation if field sampling and genetic analysis are not possible.     

Value of Small Patches in the Conservation of Plant-Species Diversity in Highly Fragmented Rainforest

Abstract:  We evaluated the importance of small (<5 ha) forest patches for the conservation of regional plant diversity in the tropical rainforest of Los Tuxtlas, Mexico. We analyzed the density of plant species (number of species per 0.1 ha) in 45 forest patches of different sizes (1–700 ha) in 3 landscapes with different deforestation levels (4, 11, and 24% forest cover). Most of the 364 species sampled (360 species, 99%) were native to the region, and only 4 (1%) were human-introduced species. Species density in the smallest patches was high and variable; the highest (84 species) and lowest (23 species) number of species were recorded in patches of up to 1.8 ha. Despite the small size of these patches, they contained diverse communities of native plants, including endangered and economically important species. The relationship between species density and area was significantly different among the landscapes, with a significant positive slope only in the landscape with the highest deforestation level. This indicates that species density in a patch of a given size may vary among landscapes that have different deforestation levels. Therefore, the conservation value of a patch depends on the total forest cover remaining in the landscape. Our findings revealed, however, that a great portion of regional plant diversity was located in very small forest patches (<5 ha), most of the species were restricted to only a few patches (41% of the species sampled were distributed in only 1–2 patches, and almost 70% were distributed in 5 patches) and each landscape conserved a unique plant assemblage. The conservation and restoration of small patches is therefore necessary to effectively preserve the plant diversity of this strongly deforested and unique Neotropical region.     

崇明东滩景观格局的生态学分析与评价

在崇明岛功能区划的基础上,利用2006年的遥感影像对崇明东滩的景观类型进行解译,并对景观格局变化和植被覆盖度进行了分析与评价。结果表明:崇明东滩的景观面貌已经由原始潮滩演化出目前多达11种斑块类型。从景观空间形态指标和景观组分指标分析结果来看,崇明东滩的生境破碎化趋势已经显现,但从景观空间关系指标和Shannon均匀性指标分析结果来看,景观聚集度和连通度尚处于较高水平(分别为96.27和99.15),均匀度尚较大(0.59)。崇明东滩的植被覆盖度主要集中在0.3至0.9之间,植被覆盖度整体上尚处于较高水平。     

Impacts of Human Behavioral Heterogeneity on the Benefits of Probabilistic Flood Warnings: An Agent‐Based Modeling Framework

Flood forecasts and warnings are intended to reduce flood‐related property damages and loss of human life. Considerable research has improved flood forecasting accuracy (e.g., more accurate prediction of the occurrence of flood events) and lead time. However, the delivery of improved forecast information alone is not necessarily sufficient to reduce flood damage and loss of life, as people have varying responses and reactions to flood warnings. This study develops an agent‐based modeling framework that evaluates the impacts of heterogeneity in human behaviors (i.e., variation in behaviors in response to flood warnings), as well as residential density, on the benefits of flood warnings. The framework is coupled with a traffic model to simulate evacuation processes within a road network under various flood warning scenarios. The results show the marginal benefit associated with providing better flood warnings is significantly constrained if people behave in a more risk‐tolerant manner, especially in high‐density residential areas. The results also show significant impacts of human behavioral heterogeneity on the benefits of flood warnings, and thus stress the importance of considering human behavioral heterogeneity in simulating flood warning‐response systems. Further study is suggested to more accurately model human responses and behavioral heterogeneity, as well as to include more attributes of residential areas to estimate and improve the benefits of flood warnings.     

Survival Under Conditions of Environmental Stress: Variability of Brain Morphology and Behavior in the House Mouse

Two populations of laboratory mice lived outdoors in open pens for two years. Thereafter, some of them were bred in the laboratory. Morphometric analysis showed that the size of the synaptic projection area of mossy fibers (in the CA3 region of the hippocampus), which has an important functional role, and some behavioral traits of the open-pen mouse progeny had significant genetically determined differences from those in the initial population. This was attributed to differential breeding accounted for by the influence of severe environmental factors. Under environmental stress, selection occurred in the population and the mice with behavioral and neuromorphological characteristics differing from those of the control group proved to be better adapted to such conditions.     

基于期望运行轨迹的车道变换行为安全性分析

为解决车道变换行为对交通运行安全影响的定量分析难题,基于车辆和驾驶员行为特性,构建车道变换行为期望运行轨迹,提出基于缓和曲线的轨迹形式,并结合车道变换行为引发的4种碰撞形式,在车辆运行纵向和横向分别构建安全运行判断方程和安全运行限制方程,分析安全距离对运行速度和车辆侧向加速度梯度的敏感度,给出车道变换行为安全运行判断方程的应用案例。研究结果表明,侧向加速度的变化梯度直接影响车道变换的安全性。     

跨域生态治理“碎片化”的限度审视与整体性治理机制研究

突破行政区划,构建跨域生态治理的有效实践机制是推进生态文明、建设美丽中国的迫切需要。数字技术建构了全新的治理场域,也形塑着新的治理模式。本文将跨域生态治理置于数字化时代的宏大视野,研究认为：传统跨域生态治理模式面临难以突破的“碎片化”瓶颈,主要表现为治理目标碎片化、治理资源碎片化和治理主体碎片化,究其原因在于利益失衡下的府际不合,“技”“智”缺位下的整合失力和能力动力双匮下的参与缺失。基于此,在系统解构整体性治理理论内涵的基础上,数字化时代跨域生态治理与整体性治理在价值、工具和场域方面存在高度耦合。最后,提出通过科学补偿和考核优化建立利益共享机制,通过资源整合与整体智治建立科学施策机制、信息共享与诉求回应建立多元协同机制,形塑整体性治理的协调、整合、信任机制,以期推进“碎片化”问题的弥合解决和跨域生态治理现代化的实现。     

Effects of forest fragmentation on avian breeding activity

Biodiversity declines and ecosystem decay follow forest fragmentation; initially, abundant species may become rare or be extirpated. Underlying mechanisms behind delayed extirpation of certain species following forest fragmentation are unknown. Species declines may be attributed to an inadequate number of breeding adults required to replace the population or decreased juvenile survival rate due to reduced recruitment or increased nest predation pressures. We used 10 years of avian banding data, 5 years before and 4 years after fragment isolation, from the Biological Dynamics of Forest Fragments Project, carried out near Manaus, Brazil, to investigate the breeding activity hypothesis that there is less breeding activity and fewer young after relative to before fragment isolation. We compared the capture rates of active breeding and young birds in 3 forest types (primary forest, fragment before isolation, and fragment after isolation) and the proportion of active breeding and young birds with all birds in each unique fragment type before and after isolation. We grouped all bird species by diet (insectivore or frugivore) and nesting strategy (open cup, cavity, or enclosed) to allow further comparisons among forest types. We found support for the breeding activity hypothesis in insectivorous and frugivorous birds (effect sizes 0.45 and 0.53, respectively) and in birds with open-cup and enclosed nesting strategies (effect sizes 0.56 and 0.44, respectively) such that on average there were more breeding birds in fragments before isolation relative to after isolation. A larger proportion of birds in the community were actively breeding before fragment isolation (72%) than after fragment isolation (11%). Unexpectedly, there was no significant decrease in the number of young birds after fragment isolation, although sample sizes for young were small (n = 43). This may have been due to sustained immigration of young birds to fragments after isolation. Together, our results provide some of the strongest evidence to date that avian breeding activity decreases in response to fragment isolation, which could be a fundamental mechanism contributing to ecosystem decay.     

Associations of Forest Cover,Fragment Area,and Connectivity with Neotropical Understory Bird Species Richness and Abundance

Theoretical and empirical studies demonstrate that the total amount of forest and the size and connectivity of fragments have nonlinear effects on species survival. We tested how habitat amount and configuration affect understory bird species richness and abundance. We used mist nets (almost 34,000 net hours) to sample birds in 53 Atlantic Forest fragments in southeastern Brazil. Fragments were distributed among 3 10,800‐ha landscapes. The remaining forest in these landscapes was below (10% forest cover), similar to (30%), and above (50%) the theoretical fragmentation threshold (approximately 30%) below which the effects of fragmentation should be intensified. Species‐richness estimates were significantly higher (F= 3715, p = 0.00) where 50% of the forest remained, which suggests a species occurrence threshold of 30–50% forest, which is higher than usually occurs (<30%). Relations between forest cover and species richness differed depending on species sensitivity to forest conversion and fragmentation. For less sensitive species, species richness decreased as forest cover increased, whereas for highly sensitive species the opposite occurred. For sensitive species, species richness and the amount of forest cover were positively related, particularly when forest cover was 30–50%. Fragment size and connectivity were related to species richness and abundance in all landscapes, not just below the 30% threshold. Where 10% of the forest remained, fragment size was more related to species richness and abundance than connectivity. However, the relation between connectivity and species richness and abundance was stronger where 30% of the landscape was forested. Where 50% of the landscape was forested, fragment size and connectivity were both related to species richness and abundance. Our results demonstrated a rapid loss of species at relatively high levels of forest cover (30–50%). Highly sensitive species were 3‐4 times more common above the 30–50% threshold than below it; however, our results do not support a unique fragmentation threshold. Asociaciones de la Cobertura Forestal, Superficie del Fragmento y Conectividad con la Riqueza y Abundancia de Aves Neotropicales de Sotobosque     

PFOA对斑马鱼胚胎发育、行为和DNA损伤的毒性研究

全氟辛酸(PFOA)是一种分布广泛的环境持久性有机污染物,在野生动物与人体内普遍被检出。目前PFOA发育毒性的特点和机制尚未阐明,已有的研究显示,PFOA毒性与受试物种及性别密切相关。因此,利用不同物种进行PFOA毒性研究对阐明其毒性机制十分重要。本研究选用了斑马鱼这种理想的脊椎动物模型,考察了PFOA暴露对其胚胎发育的自主运动、心跳、行为、细胞凋亡和DNA损伤的影响。研究发现,始于6hpf的PFOA暴露会导致斑马鱼胚胎自主运动异常,心率降低,且具有一定的剂量依赖性;6～24hpf的高浓度的PFOA暴露(>414.0mg·L-1)会导致胚胎发生显著的细胞凋亡,凋亡主要出现在眼部、头部、心脏和尾部。较高浓度的PFOA暴露(165.6mg·L-1)会使仔鱼的光刺激应激行为模式发生变化。此外,PFOA暴露会致使斑马鱼发生DNA损伤,且损伤程度随PFOA浓度的升高而加重,表明PFOA具有一定的基因毒性。上述结果表明,PFOA对斑马鱼胚胎具有发育毒性,具体表现为自主运动异常,心率降低和行为反应能力变弱,同时伴随畸形、细胞凋亡和DNA损伤。