驾驶人视觉注意力需求与驾驶行为特性的关系

采用驾驶模拟系统平台,以不同车道类型及不同交通流状态(自由流/稳定流/不稳定流/强制流)为虚拟试验场,应用心理试验设计方法,测试得到21名被试在不同交通流状态下的视觉注意力需求及驾驶行为。对5种车道类型及4种交通流状态下被试驾驶时的视觉注意力需求特性和驾驶行为特性数据进行分析,得到不同车道不同交通流状态下的视觉注意力需求变化情况。利用多元回归方法分析了不同交通流状态下驾驶人视觉注意力需求与驾驶行为之间的关系,并构建了基于驾驶行为特性的驾驶人视觉注意力需求预测模型。结果表明,驾驶人视觉注意力需求与制动次数、油门踏板位移和车辆轨迹偏差之间存在相关关系。     

Availability estimation of a multi-state wind farm in fuzzy environment

Wind is one of the fastest growing renewable energy resources in the electric power system. Availability of wind energy is volatile in nature due to the stochastic behavior of wind speed and non-linear variation of the wind power curve of wind turbine generator. Because of this impression and uncertainty, the availability estimation of wind power has become a challenging issue. In this paper, Markov Fuzzy Reward technique has been proposed for finding out the reliability of wind farm by assessing the availability of wind power. According to this technique, availability of the wind power has been estimated considering wind farm and demand both as a multi-state system. In addition to the availability, different reliability indices such as the number of absolute failures, mean time to deficiency, and probability of failures of a wind farm have been assessed in a time horizon, which can provide useful information for the power system planner at wind farm installing stage. A comparison of this study reveals the efficacy of the proposed Markov Fuzzy Reward approach over the conventional Markov Reward approach.     

法律着力碳交易：机制与对策

碳交易兼具节能减排政策市场化手段和低碳转型政策工具的双重职能。顺应节能减排领域对碳交易市场化的法律需求,发挥法律在碳交易市场创建、交易规则形成、市场规模扩张、交易平台构建、交易形式创新等方面的制度优势,是法律着力碳交易的核心问题。探讨法律在碳交易市场化进程中的作用机制和对策,建立碳交易法律促进的市场创造与扩张机制、程序保障机制、技术支持机制、物质保障机制、碳权保护机制,是当前气候变化立法重大课题。     

Public Attitudes Towards Policy Instruments for Congestion Mitigation in Shanghai

Congestion causes many externalities for the society, including time delays, excessive fuel consumption, air pollution, noise and safety concerns. In Shanghai, various policy options have been explored, piloted or applied; however, not all of them may be understood and accepted by the public. A survey was conducted to investigate people＇s attitudes towards several policy options. The main findings reveal that Shanghai residents are resistant to certain policies, such as congestion charges, higher parking charges in congested areas and car restrictions. Instead, they favor public transport provisions. The paper suggests that there is a case for promoting public transport and more efficient trips when the car ownership is still low, and for investing in a policy of educating the public on the ＇true＇ costs and causes of congestion before embarking on ,an intensive policy of congestion charges or restrictions.     

Scenario Formation of Energy Demand and CO_2 Emissions for Sustainable China

Co-integration theory has been employed in this paper and Granger causes are found between urbanization rate and GDP, between capital stock and GDP. Scenario analysis of GDP is performed using the GDP model established in the paper. The energy consumptions in Germany, Japan and other developed countries are analyzed and compared with the energy consumption in China. Environmental friendly scenario of energy demand and CO2 emissions for sustainable China has been formed based on the results of comparison. Under environmental friendly scenario, the primary energy consumption will be 4.31 billion ton coal equivalence （tee） and CO2 emissions will be 1.854 billion t-c in 2050; energy per capital will be 3.06 tee that is 1.8 times of energy consumed in 2005 in China and 51% of consumed energy per capital in Japan in 2003. In 2050, the energy requirement of unit GDP will be 20% lower than that of Germany in 2003, but will be still 37% higher than that in Japan in 2003. It is certain that to fulfill the environmental friendly Scenario of energy demand and CO2 emissions is a difficult task and it needs long term efforts of the whole society, not only in production sectors but also in service and household sectors,     

关于湖南电力安全稳定供应的对策研究

2003年以来,湖南省电力供需矛盾十分突出,为此,笔者分析了近年来湖南省缺电的原因:电力工业与国民经济发展速度比例失调;电源结构不合理——水电占大头却受降雨影响很大,部分地区干旱导致水力发电减少,火力发电煤炭供应不足;行业管理体系和项目审批体制造成了电力需求与电力建设难以匹配;电网结构不合理,电被堵在路上,难以从外省借电等。指出解决湖南省缺电现状应该合理规划、适度地扩大本省电能生产,合理调配煤炭,保障电能生产的能源供应,扩大省外电能的输入或与周边地区协力开发能源,加强电网规划和电网建设,开发利用新能源,同时应推行节约用电措施,确保电力的安全稳定供应和可持续发展。     

DEMAND PROJECTIONS CONSIDERING CONSERVATION1

ABSTRACT: Prediction of future water demands depends on the degree to which conservation effects can be anticipated. A model developed for the Corps of Engineers shows that choosing a numerical conservation target to be achieved is more meaningful and yields more predictable results than price or price elasticity manipulations. The method developed and then applied to the Kaneohe Bay region of Oahu considers the following determinants of demand: geographic distribution of the users, indoor and outdoor requirements, time - by year and month of the year, precipitation, historical unit usage rates, gross and irrigable acreage of land uses, price for water, elasticity of demand with respect to price, source of the water supply (local private supplies vs. agency supplies), and the percentage conservation savings anticipated in each future period in indoor and outdoor uses of water in each of 40 possible land uses. While developed for use in Hawaii, the model is applicable generally.     

我国城市可持续发展对智能运输系统管理规划的需求分析

本文在分析我国城市可持续发展对智能运输系统管理规划的需求的基础上，指出了我国城市交通存在的问题，并根据我国城市的特点，提出了制定城市智能运输系统管理规划的原则和注意事项，并对城市智能运输系统管理规划的总体结构和总体配置，以及实施步骤提出了设想。     

VALUING IRRIGATION WATER: A SIMULATION/MATHEMATICAL PROGRAMMING APPROACH1

ABSTRACT: A two-stage simulation/mathematical programming model was developed to derive irrigation water values that reflect efficient response to reduced water supplies. The failure of many previous water valuation studies to represent the dynamic dimension of irrigation was shown to result in overestimation of derived water values. Water values are also shown to be dramatically influenced by both application system characteristics, as well as the relative costs of irrigation inputs. Finally, the marginal value of irrigation water was shown to vary considerably over the irrigation season, reaching its maximum when atmospheric demand is highest and crops are most susceptible to water stress. Results presented should be of interest to policymakers investigating the viability of alternative water reallocation mechanisms.     

Removal of veterinary antibiotics from anaerobically digested swine wastewater using an intermittently aerated sequencing batch reactor

A lab-scale intermittently aerated sequencing batch reactor(IASBR)was applied to treat anaerobically digested swine wastewater(ADSW)to explore the removal characteristics of veterinary antibiotics.The removal rates of 11 veterinary antibiotics in the reactor were investigated under different chemical organic demand(COD)volumetric loadings,solid retention times(SRT)and ratios of COD to total nitrogen(TN)or COD/TN.Both sludge sorption and biodegradation were found to be the major contributors to the removal of veterinary antibiotics.Mass balance analysis revealed that greater than 60%of antibiotics in the influent were biodegraded in the IASBR,whereas averagely 24%were adsorbed by sludge under the condition that sludge sorption gradually reached its equilibrium.Results showed that the removal of antibiotics was greatly influenced by chemical oxygen demand(COD)volumetric loadings,which could achieve up to 85.1%±1.4%at 0.17±0.041 kg COD/m-3/day,while dropped to 75.9%±1.3%and 49.3%±12.1%when COD volumetric loading increased to 0.65±0.032 and1.07±0.073 kg COD/m-3/day,respectively.Tetracyclines,the dominant antibiotics in ADSW,were removed by 87.9%in total at the lowest COD loading,of which 30.4%were contributed by sludge sorption and 57.5%by biodegradation,respectively.In contrast,sulfonamides were removed about 96.2%,almost by biodegradation.Long SRT seemed to have little obvious impact on antibiotics removal,while a shorter SRT of 30–40 day could reduce the accumulated amount of antibiotics and the balanced antibiotics sorption capacity of sludge.Influent COD/TN ratio was found not a key impact factor for veterinary antibiotics removal in this work.