设备动态风险评估与预测研究

工业系统运行中的设备,受系统状态和设备工况的影响,其失效风险具有动态属性。因此,在认识设备失效风险的可能性和严重性的同时,还必须认识和研究设备在系统寿命周期内失效风险的动态属性。设备失效的动态风险因素可以归纳为设备自身失效率变化、设备外部载荷变化、系统结构变化以及功能变化引起的失效后果严重度变化,依此提出了动态风险模型。利用该模型对江苏某储气库水溶造腔系统进行实证研究,获得注水泵失效动态风险图,明确了造腔初期、中后期和注气排卤三个典型阶段的注水泵失效风险波动状况以及波动原因。实证研究说明,运用该分析模型可以推断系统运行周期内设备失效风险的变化状态和趋势,从而适时、有效地控制风险。     

大规模突发事件应急物资调度的过程模型

指出现有关于应急物资调度文献的不足,给出大规模突发事件的定义;结合我国近年来几起大规模突发事件总结出该事件的特征;分析大规模突发事件应急物资调度的特征,从应急物资的调度准备、调度实施、调度评估3个阶段进行设计并解释了大规模突发事件应急物资调度的全过程模型。该模型为大规模突发事件应急物资调度决策提供理论依据和方法指导,对当今的公共安全和社会稳定具有重要价值和现实意义。     

Determination of levoglucosan and its isomers in size fractions of aerosol standard reference materials

The present study tested the extraction efficiency and quantification reproducibility of anhydrosugars in a series of NIST SRMs using two extraction protocols and isotopically-labeled (d₇-levoglucosan) vs. chemically analogous (sedoheptulosan) surrogates. In both instances, levoglucosan concentrations in the different versions of the Washington, D.C. urban dust standard (SRM 1649, 1649a, 1649b, and RM 8785) were similar. The present test also showed that levoglucosan concentrations were not affected by long-term shelf storage of dry material. Variability of analyses were similar for both surrogates and averaged <5%. Surrogate recoveries were shown to average 103 ± 7% and 97 ± 7% for d₇-levoglucosan and sedoheptulosan, respectively. The choice of solvent was shown to affect recoveries the most (but not variability). Levoglucosan concentrations were either seriously underestimated or overestimated with ethyl acetate extraction when d₇-levoglucosan or sedoheptulosan was used as surrogate, respectively. These results point to the need to use some fraction of polar solvent (i.e. methanol) in the solvent mixture. Anhydrosugar concentrations in the urban dust from the Czech Republic (candidate SRMs 2786 and 2787) were characterized by 3- to 7-fold higher anhydrosugar concentrations than those observed in the Washington, D.C. urban dust. The internal anhydrosugar signatures (i.e. levoglucosan/mannosan ratio: L/M) confirm the predominance of biomass combustion sources in both SRM series with mixed inputs from hardwood and softwood combustion in the Washington, D.C. urban dust and a predominantly softwood source in the Prague urban dust. The uniform distribution of anhydrosugars, across the particle size distribution of both SRM series, confirms earlier studies that low temperature charred materials contribute significant inputs to atmospheric ultrafine particles with long atmospheric residence time and transport ranges.     

理性思考汶川地震中砌体结构的抗震能力

汶川地震建筑震害严重,应对此进行理性的思考。本文立足于按规范正常建造的砌体结构房屋的震害调查,对砌体结构震害严重的原因进行了分析,提出了减轻砌体结构震害的建议;同时,对预制板在地震区的应用进行了探讨,指出政府不宜限制预制板的应用;最后,建议采用经济性好、施工快捷、结构性能可靠的新型装配整体式房屋结构体系等技术。     

复杂环境中玻璃幕墙设计风压风洞试验

风荷载是引起玻璃幕墙结构破坏的主要荷载之一,目前相应规范在玻璃幕墙设计风压取值上尚未考虑相邻建筑物的影响,其结果已经不能完全覆盖处于特定风场中的幕墙设计要求.通过风洞试验,得到了处于复杂环境中的玻璃幕墙设计风压值,介绍了目前中美两国规范关于玻璃幕墙风荷载取值的计算方法,探讨了试验值与中美两国规范计算值之间的差异.分析结果表明:对于处在复杂环境中的玻璃幕墙,现有规范设计风压的取值不是偏大就是偏小,尤其是在建筑底部的局部区域可能出现远大于规范计算值的负风压.所得结果可供同类幕墙工程设计参考.     

Analysis of hazardous material releases due to natural hazards in the United States

Natural hazards were the cause of approximately 16,600 hazardous material (hazmat) releases reported to the National Response Center (NRC) between 1990 and 2008-three per cent of all reported hazmat releases. Rain-induced releases were most numerous (26 per cent of the total), followed by those associated with hurricanes (20 per cent), many of which resulted from major episodes in 2005 and 2008. Winds, storms or other weather-related phenomena were responsible for another 25 per cent of hazmat releases. Large releases were most frequently due to major natural disasters. For instance, hurricane-induced releases of petroleum from storage tanks account for a large fraction of the total volume of petroleum released during 'natechs' (understood here as a natural hazard and the hazardous materials release that results). Among the most commonly released chemicals were nitrogen oxides, benzene, and polychlorinated biphenyls. Three deaths, 52 injuries, and the evacuation of at least 5,000 persons were recorded as a consequence of natech events. Overall, results suggest that the number of natechs increased over the study period (1990-2008) with potential for serious human and environmental impacts.     

政府应急物资保障能力评价研究

做好政府应急资源保障能力评估对于提高应急物资储备质量、保障突发事件应急处置过程中的物资供给具有重要意义。在分析应急物资需求的基础上,提出了多元性的政府应急物资保障能力评估目标;指出需要评估的应急物资主要是政府部门以实物和合同方式储备的应急物资;界定了应急物资的保障时间;以应急物资的储备特征为基础,建立了应急物资保障能力的评价指标体系;提出了基于集对分析法的应急物资保障能力评价模型,并举例说明该模型的可行性;最后为进一步研究提出了一些建议。     

反硝化脱氮固体碳源材料研究进展

在污水处理中,固体碳源是制约生物反硝化脱氮的重要因素。天然固体碳源有着丰富的来源,但是机械强度低;人工合成固体碳源有很好的物理性质,但是造价较高;天然高分子材料经过改造后具有价格低、物性好的优点,因而成为研究的热点,且具有很好的市场前景。     

地下水修复系统中释氧材料的改进及pH调控

在采用释氧材料的地下水污染修复系统中,释氧材料提供溶解氧的同时,往往造成体系pH的升高。针对这一问题,将过氧化钙(CaO2)、水泥、河沙、膨润土和KH2PO4按一定比例混合在一起制作了3种释氧材料,并在柱实验中观测了不同释氧材料对水体溶解氧(DO)及pH值的影响。实验数据表明,水泥对释氧材料的缓释作用明显,有助于保证释氧速率平稳,避免由于释氧材料反应过快所带来的高pH问题;在释氧材料中添加一定量KH2PO4(质量分数小于10%),可以起到缓冲体系pH值的作用,并且不会造成修复系统磷污染;电气石具有降低溶液高pH值的作用,以粒径为1～2 mm的电气石作缓冲介质可以将体系pH值由11.3降至10.2。