西南地区旱涝特征及其趋势预测

应用Z指数和标准化降水指数SPI,结合REOF方法和Hurst 指数对西南地区旱涝等级及其时空分布规律、演变趋势进行分析和预测,结果表明:SPI 和Z指数的计算结果和现实情况较一致,从多年平均值来看,云南的中甸及四川的石渠、德格等地干旱指数处于低值区,属重旱区。贵州和广西及云南南部部分地区属易涝区。逐年的SPI 和Z指数结果大体一致,2000 年以后,干旱指数波动较大。通过REOF分析,Z指数的分布大致分为川西区、川东(包括渝)区、云贵(包括广西北部)区、广南四个区域。云贵区Z指数总体呈下降趋势,涝情呈减弱趋势;川西区在1964 年至1973 年间干旱严重,1995 年以后变化相对稳定,但干旱也时有发生;川东区旱涝变化不显著。经Hurst 指数分析,西南五省市未来的旱涝情况大致为干旱程度呈逐步加大的态势,洪涝程度呈较弱的逐步减小态势。     

近53年黄河流域降水时空分布特征

利用黄河流域76个气象台站近53 a（1960-2012）的逐日降水资料,采用国际上通用的极端降水事件指数,应用一元线性回归法、移动平均法和径向基函数空间插值法,研究了黄河流域极端降水指数时空变化特征。结果表明：（1）时间上,黄河流域年平均降水量在过去53 a下降趋势较为显著,降水倾向率为-7.2 mm/10a;极端降水量变化趋势表现较为稳定,极端降水倾向率为-0.64 mm/10a,呈不断降低趋势;极端降水强度倾向率为-0.078 mm/10a,呈不断下降趋势;极端降水比率总体表现为微弱增长趋势,倾向率为0.49 mm/10a。（2）空间上,降水量空间分布具有明显的差异性,由北至南呈阶梯式逐渐增多趋势,其中降水量最少的地区是以银川为代表的周边区域,最多的地区为黄河流域南部区域;极端降水量从北至南也具有逐渐增多态势,与降水量具有相似的空间分布特点,且极端降水量越多的地区降水总量也相对较多;极端降水强度表现出由流域西部向东部逐渐增多的趋势,西部最低值为不到20 mm/d,逐渐向东过渡到最大值为76 mm/d;极端降水比率的分布呈由北向南逐渐递减的特点,并且出现了以银川为中心的极大值和以西安为中心的极小值分布格局。     

Automated indirect fluoride determination by ICP-OES using discontinuous-flow analysis

An automated method for the indirect determination of fluoride by inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectrometry using discontinuous-flow analysis has been developed. A modified flow injection analysis system was used for sample preparation. The method is based on the determination of excess cerium(III) ion after precipitation of CeF₃. Separation of the precipitate is performed online on a syringe membrane filter that is cleaned each analysis cycle by 1 M nitric acid, ensuring a long life-time for the filter. As a result of the short reaction time, a detection limit of 9.5 mg L^?1 was obtained. The precision (RSD) of the proposed method is 1.02% at fluoride concentration of 28 mg L^?1. The applicability of the technique for groundwater monitoring of fluoride-contaminated area is demonstrated.     

基于SPI指数的1981—2010年内蒙古地区干旱时空分布特征

依据内蒙古地区47 个地面观测站1981—2010 年降水资料,采用标准化降水指数(SPI)作为干旱指标,分析了内蒙古地区年度和四季干旱发生的频率、干旱强度和站次比(发生干旱站数与总站数之比) 的演变特点。结果表明:年度、秋季和冬季干旱强度变化趋势不明显,春、夏季干旱强度呈显著上升的趋势;近30 a 来年尺度上干旱强度表现为轻度干旱,四季干旱强度以轻度干旱为主;年、季尺度上干旱发生的覆盖范围为局域性干旱和区域性干旱;内蒙古东北部呼伦贝尔盟是年度干旱、中旱、重旱与特旱发生频率最高地区,而西部阿拉善盟地区干旱、中旱、重旱和特旱发生的频率相对较低;从季节上来看,内蒙古全区春、冬季干旱(含中、重和特旱)发生频率较为一致,表现为西部及西南部地区干旱发生的频率较低,而东部、中部、北部地区干旱发生的频率相对较高。     

降水变化、氮添加对鼎湖山主要森林土壤有机碳矿化和土壤微生物碳的影响

全球变化对土壤有机碳(SOC)存贮与分解的影响在全球碳(C)循环中具有重要地位.分别通过室内土壤培养法和氯仿熏蒸法,研究了降水变化和氮(N)添加处理对鼎湖山3种不同演替阶段的季风常绿阔叶林、针阔混交林和马尾松针叶林SOC矿化和土壤微生物量碳(SMBC)的影响.结果表明:1)降水量增加能够提高森林演替晚期SOC累积矿化量和矿化速率,而对森林演替早期SOC累积矿化量和矿化速率没有显著影响(P>0.05).2)干旱条件(降水量减少)降低森林SMBC含量,且在鼎湖山季风林表层土壤(0～10 cm)中SMBC的减少达到显著水平(P<0.05).3)N添加处理对鼎湖山3种森林类型SOC累积矿化量、矿化速率以及SMBC都没有显著影响(P>0.05).未来关于SOC矿化对全球变化响应的研究,要综合考虑土壤有机质质量、C/N比例、外源性氮输入等因素的作用.图4表2参37     

基于SPI的西北地区气候干湿变化

干旱是西北地区乃至全国主要的自然灾害之一。论文应用标准化降水指数(SPI)对西北地区近50 a来不同时段的特旱和重旱发生频次及其空间分布进行了计算分析,结果表明:标准化降水指数(SPI)作为一种干旱重建指标,适用于西北地区,也可以作为气候变化的监测指标;降水量的西增东减趋势与干旱频次的西部和东北减少、东南增加相对应,亦即气候变化在某种程度上缓解了新疆北部和青海西部的干旱,但加重了甘肃东南部和陕西中南部的干旱;与气候变化相对应,全西北地区干旱频次有总体下降的趋势,尽管干旱发生的地域持续在改变。     

辽宁省背景地区降水化学特征及其与大气传输的关系

为了解辽宁省背景地区降水化学特征及其与大气传输的关系,于2007年2月─2008年1月在辽中县水文监测站进行了降水化学特征观测,测量项目包括降水pH,电导率和离子浓度. 观测期间降水pH为3.4～7.3,降水量加权平均值为4.6,整体呈酸性. 降水中主要阴离子为SO₄2-和NO₃-,浓度分别为154.3和53.4 μeq/L,二者占阴离子总量的76.8%; 主要阳离子为NH₄+和Ca2+,浓度分别为124.6和89.2 μeq/L,占阳离子总量的70.6%. 利用后向气流轨迹分析了降水气团来源对降水化学的影响,结果表明:在辽宁省及周边地区的局地气团影响下,降水中离子浓度最高;而在起源于东亚地区,经朝鲜半岛到达的南-东南气团影响下,降水次数虽最多,但离子浓度最低.      

A New Flood Index for Use in Evaluation of Local Flood Severity: A Case Study of Small Ungauged Catchments in Korea1

Ahn, Jae Hyun and Hyun Il Choi, 2013. A New Flood Index for Use in Evaluation of Local Flood Severity: A Case Study of Small Ungauged Catchments in Korea. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 49(1): 1‐14. DOI: 10.1111/jawr.12025 Abstract: The aim of this article is to develop a new index measuring the severity of floods in small ungauged catchments for initial local flood information by the regression analysis between the new flooding index and rainfall patterns. Although a rapid local flood caused by heavy storm in a short period of time is now one of common natural disasters worldwide, such a sudden and violent hydrologic event is difficult to forecast. As local flooding rises rapidly with little or no advance warning, the key to local flood forecasting is to quickly identify when and where local flooding above a threshold is likely to occur. The new flooding index to characterize local floods is measured by the three normalized relative severity factors for the flood magnitude ratio, the rising curve gradient, and the flooding duration time, quantifying characteristics of flood runoff hydrographs. The new flooding index implemented for the two selected small ungauged catchments in the Korean Peninsula shows a very high correlation with logarithm of the 2‐h maximum rainfall depth. This study proposes 30 mm of rainfall in a 2‐h period as a basin‐specific guidance of precaution for the incipient local flooding in the two study catchments. It is expected that the best‐fit regression equation between the new flooding index and a certain rainfall rate can provide preliminary observations, the flood threshold, and severity information, for use in a local flood alert system in small ungauged catchments. Editor's note: This paper is part of a featured series on Korean Hydrology. The series addresses the need for a new paradigm of river and watershed management for Korea due to climate and land use changes.     

甘肃平凉市大气湿沉降中氮、硫污染物循环特征分析

大气环境中氮,硫污染物的循环,正在自然系统改变。人为活动已明显冲击了氮、硫元素的循环过程,它们可能对生物多样性,局地气侯变暖,土壤,水体,人体健康等逐渐带来严重影响。氮、硫污染物亦是大气酸沉降的主要来源。通过对甘肃平凉市大气湿沉降中氮、硫污染物特征分析,掌握氮、硫污染物动态变化,分析它们在大气湿沉降中的化学变化及污染循环特征,为做好节能减排工作提供理论依据。使氮、硫元素的循环趋于平衡,防止酸沉降在我市发生,进一步提高我市环境空气质量。     

Climate changes in the past century and radial increment of pine in the Southern Ural steppe

Changes in the main climatic factors (air temperature and total precipitation) and their effect on the radial increment of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) over the period from 1933 to 2002 were studied in an insular pine forest growing in the steppe zone of the Southern Urals. Evidence for a significant increase in the amount of precipitation and air temperature in the second half of this period was obtained. Functions of response of radial increment indices to climatic parameters were analyzed. Relative contributions of air temperature and precipitation to variation in the radial increment of pine in different time intervals proved to differ in relation to climate changes during the past century.