Precipitation as the Primary Driver of Variability in River Nitrogen Loads in the Midwest United States

Nitrogen (N) losses from agricultural lands in the Midwest United States are contributing to the expansion of the hypoxic zone in the Gulf of Mexico. This study evaluated the importance of inter‐annual variability in precipitation, land cover, and N fertilizer use on NO₃ + NO₂‐N loads in seven United States Midwestern Rivers using the backward stepwise regression analysis. At the annual scale, fluctuations in the current and previous years’ precipitations explained much of the variation in streamflow, baseflow, and N‐load. Previous years precipitation effects were associated with fillable soil porosity. In some years, higher residual soil N from previous dry years also contributed to an increase in N‐load. Area under soybean production (SOY), a surrogate for replacement of prairies and small grains was generally not a significant explanatory variable. Fertilizer use from 1987 to 2012 was also not a significant explanatory variable in the annual analysis. Precipitation in both the current and previous months and previous year were important in explaining variation in monthly streamflow, baseflow, and N‐load. SOY was significant in one or two months from June to August, but had a higher p‐value than precipitation. We conclude recent increases in river N‐loads are primarily due to wet climate and minimally due to the changes in land cover or N fertilizer use. Under current cropping systems and agronomic N application rates, tile water remediation will be necessary to reduce river N‐loads.     

Use of Predictive Weather Uncertainties in an Irrigation Scheduling Tool Part I: A Review of Metrics and Adjoint Methods

Irrigation management consists of many components. In this work we review and recommend rainfall forecast performance metrics and adjoint methodologies for the use of predictive weather data within the Colorado State University Water Irrigation Scheduler for Efficient Application (WISE). WISE estimates crop water uses to optimize irrigation scheduling. WISE and its components, input requirements, and related software design issues are discussed. The use of predictive weather allows WISE to consider economic opportunity‐costs of decisions to defer water application if rainfall is forecast. These capabilities require an assessment of the system uncertainties and use of weather prediction performance probabilities. Rainfall forecasts and verification performance metrics are reviewed. In addition, model data assimilation methods and adjoint sensitivity concepts are introduced. These assimilation methods make use of observational uncertainties and can link performance metrics to space and time considerations. We conclude with implementation guidance, summaries of available data sources, and recommend a novel adjoint method to address the complex physical linkages and model sensitivities between space and time within the irrigation scheduling physics as a function of soil depth. Such tool improvements can then be used to improve water management decision performance to better conserve and utilize limited water resources for productive use. Editor’s note : This paper is part of the featured series on Optimizing Ogallala Aquifer Water Use to Sustain Food Systems. See the February 2019 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

化学沉淀法预处理稀土精矿分解废水

采用化学沉淀法对稀土精矿分解废水进行预处理,实验结果表明,当pH9.0、n(M g2 )∶n(NH 4)∶n(PO34-)=3.5∶1∶1.5时,废水中NH3-N的质量浓度由8 370m g/L降为1 420m g/L,去除率为83%。为了不增加出水中PO34-污染物的浓度,向上层清液中加入相应量的CaC l2.2H2O。当n(Ca2 )∶n(PO34-)=9∶1时,完成沉淀反应,再调整上层清液的pH为10,搅拌后,上层清液中PO34-的质量浓度降为0.18m g/L。     

工艺条件对磷回收过程中鸟粪石沉淀颗粒粒径的影响

在鸟粪石沉淀法回收废水中磷的过程中,鸟粪石颗粒的大小将直接影响其沉淀的速率,进而影响鸟粪石的沉淀效果和磷的回收率。本文采用激光粒度分析仪测定鸟粪石的平均粒径,详细考察在小型连续搅拌反应-沉淀磷回收装置中不同的工艺条件下鸟粪石颗粒粒径的变化规律,并结合Stokes公式计算鸟粪石颗粒在废水出口处的沉降速率,为沉淀池的设计提供参考依据。结果表明:鸟粪石的平均粒径在12～25μm之间,沉降速率在5.46×10-5～2.37×10-4m/s之间。随着反应室水力停留时间的延长,鸟粪石颗粒的粒径逐渐增大,当停留时间超过18 min时,颗粒的粒径基本不变;随着沉淀室水力停留时间的延长,鸟粪石颗粒的平均粒径缓慢增大,当停留时间超过70 min后颗粒粒径的变化不大;鸟粪石颗粒的平均粒径在一定程度上受废水中磷初始浓度变化的影响,在磷初始浓度为62～128 mg/L时颗粒的粒径变化不大,当磷浓度为496 mg/L时粒径有较大增加,此时鸟粪石颗粒的沉降速率也大幅度增加;鸟粪石颗粒的平均粒径受pH值的影响不大;随氮磷摩尔比的增大,鸟粪石颗粒的平均粒径略有增加;随镁磷摩尔比的增大,鸟粪石颗粒的平均粒径逐渐减小,沉降速率则有明显的下降。     

Prediction of Crop Production using Drought indices at Different Time Scales and Climatic Factors to Manage Drought Risk1

Sadat Noori, S.M., A.M. Liaghat, and K. Ebrahimi, 2011. Prediction of Crop Production Using Drought Indices at Different Time Scales and Climatic Factors to Manage Drought Risk. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(1): 1‐9. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00586.x Abstract: Drought causes great damage to rainfed and irrigated farming. Therefore, prediction of crop production during the drought period is essential in order to manage drought risk. Thus, proceeding to agricultural drought risk management can be very useful. This study shows the results of early crop prediction using the combination of climate factors and drought indices at different time scales. The study region was Hamadan, a semiarid region in Iran. The methodology demonstrated here has allowed the prediction of production several months before harvest. Moreover, the predictive models constructed have explained 89% of the temporal variability of wheat production. This method could be very efficient for managing crop production. Moreover, having clear prediction, decision makers can plan better for overcoming drought impacts to reduce crop uncertainty for farmers in insurance companies.     

经验正交函数方法和TRMM数据对长江流域降水模式与极端水文过程的研究

气候变化加剧了极端天气和水文事件的发生,降水是区域干旱与洪水事件最直接驱动因素。以TRMM/PR月累积降水反演遥感数据为基础,利用经验正交函数EOF（Empirical Orthogonal Function）方法对长江流域降水时空变化模式进行提取,并对比分析了主要模式振幅强弱与极端水文事件的对应关系。结果表明在流域尺度上EOF方法及TRMM/PR数据可以较好地识别降水主要模式,通过时空尺度变换成功揭示主要降水模式强弱与流域极端水文事件的对应关系。鉴于日益丰富的巨量水文气象时空数据,EOF方法在模式提取、水文模拟、极端事件预估及灾害适应性研究等方面具有应用潜力     

恩施地区近54年降水量变化特征分析

基于湖北省恩施州的4个气象站点（巴东、绿葱坡、恩施、来凤）以及周边的3个站点（万州、奉节、五峰）近54 a逐年的降水量数据,利用气候倾向率法、ARCGIS空间分析法、小波周期分析法（Wavelet Analysis）和Mann Kendall突变分析法分别对研究区的降水量的时空变化、周期变化、突变进行了分析。研究表明：湖北恩施地区近54 a降水量呈现出波动式的下降趋势,20世纪90年代后尤为明显。从时间变化来看,70年代和90年代的降水量的下降量要比其它年代降水增加量要大;四季变化中除了冬季降水量呈现出较为明显的上升趋势外,其它3个季节降水量呈现较为明显的下降趋势。从空间变化来看,降水量最多的区域主要集中在绿葱坡地区,最少的区域主要集中在东北部的巴东和西北部利川的部分区域,形成了“一高两低”且有东北部向西部逐渐减少的分布态势     

鄱阳湖流域叶面积指数时空变化特征及其与气候因子的关系

利用1982~2001年NOAA/AVHRR NDVI数据,根据简单生物模型SiB2的方法计算鄱阳湖流域叶面积指数LAI,分析不同植被类型LAI年内和年际变化及其与降水、气温的关系。结果显示：在年内,LAI从1月开始减小,至3月降到最小,之后开始迅速增大,7月达到最大值,然后又开始减小;各植被覆盖类型LAI与前3月降水和前1月平均气温相关性较强,并且全部通过95％的显著性检验。在年际上,各植被覆盖类型LAI在20 a间无明显整体增大或减小趋势,但每隔2~3 a呈锯齿状增大减小交替变化,其中常绿针叶林LAI变幅较大,在23~35之间,而林地草原LAI变化较平缓,在05~09之间;植被LAI年际变化受流域内5~7月降水年际变化的影响较大。在空间上,植被LAI在春、冬季整体较小,空间分布差异也较小,仅在流域边缘山区林地覆盖区稍大,其余大片区域LAI值很低,且分布比较均一;夏、秋季LAI较大,空间分布差异也较大,其空间分布主要与流域内土地覆盖类型有关     

湖北省双季稻生长季降水及洪涝变化特征

利用1961～2008年湖北省双季稻区常规气象站资料,统计计算了双季稻产区在早晚稻生长季的降水量、暴雨量、暴雨日数以及洪涝发生次数,揭示了近50 a来双季稻区降水及洪涝的变化特征。结果显示：湖北省双季稻区在早晚稻生长季的降水量都有弱的增加趋势,尤其是鄂东北局部和江汉平原南部;在水稻抽穗扬花至成熟期间,早稻暴雨量大部有不显著的增加趋势,而晚稻则大部为弱减少趋势。早稻生长季内洪涝的发生次数总体呈增加趋势,局部地区严重洪涝发生次数加大;晚稻生长季洪涝总次数有略减少趋势,重度以上洪涝发生很少,但呈略增加趋势     

北京市酸雨变化趋势及成因分析

1993-2002年中国气象局酸雨观测站网在北京地区有两个观测站,2003年增至3个。根据北京3个酸雨观测站的有关资料,研究了北京市酸雨变化的特征及成因。研究结果表明:第一,1993-2007年北京地区降水酸度呈现两个阶段,即1993-2002年降水酸度稳定在较弱水平,而2003-2008年呈逐年增强趋势。第二,与2003年以前相比,2003年以后硫酸根和硝酸根离子浓度均呈明显增加趋势,二者比值逐步下降并低于3,这表明北京乃至华北地区的酸雨已由硫酸型转为硫酸与硝酸并重型。第三,北京周边省、市二氧化硫年排放量的增加及钙离子和可吸入颗粒物浓度减少是近年来北京地区酸雨增强的人为原因。第四,气象条件是酸雨发生的主要动力因素。一般情况下,在地面风速较小的季节酸雨频率较高,850hPa高度为弱的偏南风或发生低层逆温时可促进酸雨的发生。此外降水量的大小也与酸雨有密切关系,24 h降水量达暴雨量级时酸雨频率最高。