A CALIBRATION PROCEDURE USING TOPMODEL TO DETERMINE SUITABILITY FOR EVALUATING POTENTIAL CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECTS ON WATER YIELD1

ABSTRACT: An evaluation was conducted on three forested upland watersheds in the northeastern U.S. to test the suitability of TOPMODEL for predicting water yield over a wide range of climatic scenarios. The analysis provides insight of the usefulness of TOPMODEL as a predictive tool for future assessments of potential long-term changes in water yield as a result of changes in global climate. The evaluation was conducted by developing a calibration procedure to simulate a range of climatic extremes using historical temperature, precipitation, and streamfiow records for years having wet, average, and dry precipitation amounts from the Leading Ridge (Pennsylvania), Fernow (West Virginia), and Hubbard Brook (New Hampshire) Experimental Watersheds. This strategy was chosen to determine whether the model could be successfully calibrated over a broad range of soil moisture conditions with the assumption that this would be representative of the sensitivity necessary to predict changes in streamfiow under a variety of climate change scenarios. The model calibration was limited to a daily time step, yet performed reasonably well for each watershed. Model efficiency, a least squares measure of how well a model performs, averaged between 0.64 and 0.78. A simple test of the model whereby daily temperatures were increased by 1.7°C, resulted in annual water yield decreases of 4 to 15 percent on the three watersheds. Although these results makes the assumption that the model components adequately describe the system, this version of TOPMODEL is capable to predict water yield impacts given subtle changes in the temperature regime. This suggests that adequate representations of the effects of climate change on water yield for regional assessment purposes can be expected using the TOPMODEL concept.     

The number of males in primate social groups: a comparative test of the socioecological model

As applied to polygynous mammals, the socioecological model assumes that environmental risks and resources determine the spatial and temporal distribution of females, which then sets male strategies for monopolizing fertile matings. The effects of female spatial distribution (i.e., female number) and temporal overlap (female mating synchrony) have been examined in comparative studies of primates, but the relative influence of these two factors on male monopolization potential (the number of males) remains unclear. One particular problem is that female synchrony is more difficult to estimate than female number. This paper uses multivariate statistical methods and three independent estimates of female synchrony to assess the roles of spatial and temporal effects in the context of a phylogenetically corrected dataset. These analyses are based on sensitivity analyses involving a total of four phylogenies, with two sets of branch length estimates for each tree, and one nonphylogenetic analysis in which species values are used (because male behavior may represent a facultative response to the distribution of females). The results show: (1) that breeding seasonality predicts male number (statistically significant in six out of nine sensitivity tests); (2) that expected female overlap, after controlling for female group size using residuals, also accounts for the number of males in primate groups (significant in eight out of nine tests), and (3) that actual estimates of female mating synchrony predict male number, again after correcting for female group size (significant in five out of nine tests). Nonsignificant results are in the predicted direction, and female group size is significant in all statistical tests. These analyses therefore demonstrate an independent influence of female temporal overlap on male monopolization strategies in mammalian social systems. Received: 24 July 1998 / Received in revised form: 5 February 1999 / Accepted: 7 February 1999     

小城镇生态监测指标体系及监测方法研究综述

阐述了小城镇开展生态监测的目的和意义,以及小城镇生态监测指标体系的建立原则,介绍了城市生态子系统环境监测指标体系、农村生态子系统环境监测指标体系和自然生态子系统环境监测指标体系的具体内容,以及相关的监测方法与技术。     

儿童在道路行驶中的安全与防护——加拿大新的儿童汽车座椅法规与测试方法

本文主要介绍加拿大新的《机动车辆约束系统和加高座椅安全法规》（SOR/2011-16）的相关内容,同时对儿童汽车座椅的研究与测试方法也进行了详细描述,以对我国相关行业提供借鉴。     

环境中多环芳烃前处理和分析方法

多环芳烃(PAHa)是一类广泛存在于大气、水体、土壤、沉积物中的持久性有机污染物,对环境和生物体存在较大危害.介绍了国内外部分水体中PAHs的污染状况,对液态和固体PAHs的主要前处理方法和分析方法进行了比较和归纳,展望了环境样品中PAHs的前处理和分析方法的发展方向.     

矿物超细颗粒的形成机制、结构特征及其环境行为和效应

矿物超细颗粒在自然环境中普遍存在,具有独特的环境行为和效应,对元素地球化学循环、污染物迁移转化和生态环境演变等有重要影响.矿物超细颗粒的环境行为和效应与其形成过程和结构特征密切相关.综述了物理、化学和生物过程驱动的矿物超细颗粒的形成机制,介绍了用于表征矿物超细颗粒结构特征的显微镜、光谱、质谱和同步辐射技术,分析了矿物超细颗粒在环境中的迁移转化及其与污染物的吸附、氧化还原和催化转化作用,总结了矿物超细颗粒的食物链积累、生物和生态毒性等环境效应,并对颗粒结晶路径、风险管控和微纳界面调控等重要研究方向进行了展望.超细颗粒是连接微观物质与宏观矿物晶体之间的桥梁,全面认识复杂基质中矿物颗粒的环境属性及其与污染物的微观作用机制,有助于指导矿物超细颗粒在环境污染修复中的应用,从而优化功能材料的设计,促进绿色低碳纳米技术的发展.     

声发射检测灵敏度校准声源实验分析

在声发射技术的应用中,传感器的工作频率和灵敏度对AE检测的结果具有决定性的作用,传感器的校准是AE定量研究的基础,也是声发射检测技术研究中的重要课题。根据二级校准的相关要求设计了三个不同声源的实验:落球、断铅和压断毛细玻璃管法。通过重复性实验,测量了不同大小的钢球从不同高度下落;不同粗细、硬度以及不同长度的铅芯的断裂;不同粗细的毛细玻璃管被压断产生的脉冲声源,分别比较以上三个实验在不同状态条件下产生的脉冲声源信号,分析其实时特征和频谱特征(峰值,上升时间),通过计算确定其不确定度和稳定度,总结优化操作方法,同时分析了实验误差。在此基础上得出最适合做声发射传感器灵敏度校准的脉冲声源,为声发射传感器校准中的参考声源提供性能评判的依据。     

Developing shared qualitative models for complex systems

Understanding complex systems is essential to ensure their conservation and effective management. Models commonly support understanding of complex ecological systems and, by extension, their conservation. Modeling, however, is largely a social process constrained by individuals’ mental models (i.e., a small-scale internal model of how a part of the world works based on knowledge, experience, values, beliefs, and assumptions) and system complexity. To account for both system complexity and the diversity of knowledge of complex systems, we devised a novel way to develop a shared qualitative complex system model. We disaggregated a system (carbonate coral reefs) into smaller subsystem modules that each represented a functioning unit, about which an individual is likely to have more comprehensive knowledge. This modular approach allowed us to elicit an individual mental model of a defined subsystem for which the individuals had a higher level of confidence in their knowledge of the relationships between variables. The challenge then was to bring these subsystem models together to form a complete, shared model of the entire system, which we attempted through 4 phases: develop the system framework and subsystem modules; develop the individual mental model elicitation methods; elicit the mental models; and identify and isolate differences for exploration and identify similarities to cocreate a shared qualitative model. The shared qualitative model provides opportunities to develop a quantitative model to understand and predict complex system change.     

电梯接地保护与检验

良好的接地保护是维护电梯正常运行的重要措施,同时为检修作业人员的安全提供强有力的保障,因此是电梯检验中一个重要的项目。文章先对接地保护的概念进行澄清,接着介绍低压系统的几种接地型式,通过比较得出适用于电梯的接地系统,最后结合检规的要求介绍了有关的检验方法并指出日常检验中接地线存在的问题。     

CGE模型在水资源研究中的应用与展望

文章简要介绍了CGE模型及其在水资源研究中的应用,归纳了水资源在模型中的处理方法,分析了CGE模型应用于水资源研究中存在的问题,并对未来发展趋势进行了展望。从处理水资源问题的方法看,约束条件、要素、中间投入和综合处理等4 种方法是主要的建模手段,并随着数据和建模技术的发展,模型向精细化、复杂化和贴近实际发展。尽管CGE模型在水资源研究中的应用仍然受制于模型本身的缺陷以及对水资源问题的认识和处理方式,但随着理论发展、数据完善,CGE模型在水资源研究中的应用会逐步朝着标准化、模块化、精细化和实用化的方向发展。