METHODOLOGIES FOR CALIBRATION AND PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS OF A WATERSHED MODEL1

ABSTRACT: The use of a fitted parameter watershed model to address water quantity and quality management issues requires that it be calibrated under a wide range of hydrologic conditions. However, rarely does model calibration result in a unique parameter set. Parameter nonuniqueness can lead to predictive nonuniqueness. The extent of model predictive uncertainty should be investigated if management decisions are to be based on model projections. Using models built for four neighboring watersheds in the Neuse River Basin of North Carolina, the application of the automated parameter optimization software PEST in conjunction with the Hydrologic Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) is demonstrated. Parameter nonuniqueness is illustrated, and a method is presented for calculating many different sets of parameters, all of which acceptably calibrate a watershed model. A regularization methodology is discussed in which models for similar watersheds can be calibrated simultaneously. Using this method, parameter differences between watershed models can be minimized while maintaining fit between model outputs and field observations. In recognition of the fact that parameter nonuniqueness and predictive uncertainty are inherent to the modeling process, PEST's nonlinear predictive analysis functionality is then used to explore the extent of model predictive uncertainty.     

优化整合地表水环境质量标准分析方法

本文简述了我国《地表水环境质量标准》中分析方法已不适应现代分析技术的发展,归纳总结了地表水中无机元素和有机物污染物的最新分析方法。通过整合优化,分析地表水109项指标由原来的80余种精简至32种方法。     

企业节能量计算方法浅析

阐述了企业在实施节能降耗过程中普遍采用的节能量计算方法,对产品单耗节能量和技术措施节能量进行了分析,并对比了采用单耗法和技术措施法计算节能量的适用范围和局限性,指出两种方法对企业的意义,提出了在节能量计算过程中的注意事项和几点认识。     

生活垃圾填埋场建设项目环保验收调查方法研究简

垃圾填埋场建设项目的主要环境问题包括：渗沥液排放、地下水环境污染、大气环境污染、噪声污染、景观变化和环境安全。根据工作经验,建立了包括建设项目基本情况、生态环境影响、社会环境影响、生态环境保护措施四大类调查监测指标为核心的环保验收调查指标体系,提出了文件资料核实、现场勘查、遥感调查、公众意见调查、环境监测和摄影法为主的建设项目竣工环保验收调查技术方法。     

Calibration and Verification of SWMM for Low Impact Development

The Storm Water Management Model was used to simulate runoff and nutrient export from a low impact development (LID) watershed and a watershed using traditional runoff controls. Predictions were compared to observed values. Uncalibrated simulations underpredicted weekly runoff volume and average peak flow rates from the multiple subcatchment LID watershed by over 80%; the single subcatchment traditional watershed had better predictions. Saturated hydraulic conductivity, Manning's n for swales, and initial soil moisture deficit were sensitive parameters. After calibration, prediction of total weekly runoff volume for the LID and traditional watersheds improved to within 12 and 5% of observed values, respectively. For the validation period, predicted total weekly runoff volumes for the LID and traditional watersheds were within 6 and 2% of observed values, respectively. Water quality simulation was less successful, Nash–Sutcliffe coefficients >0.5 for both calibration and validation periods were only achieved for prediction of total nitrogen export from the LID watershed. Simulation of a 100‐year, 24‐h storm resulted in a runoff coefficient of 0.46 for the LID watershed and 0.59 for the traditional watershed. Results suggest either calibration is needed to improve predictions for LID watersheds or expanded look‐up tables for Green–Ampt infiltration parameter values that account for compaction of urban soil and antecedent conditions are needed.     

石油石化企业温室气体清单编制简析

文章通过简要阐述石油石化企业温室气体清单的编制全过程,确定石油石化企业温室气体排放种类、识别主要温室气体排放源、列举重点生产过程中温室气体排放量的核算方法,为石油石化企业实现温室气体减排和控制工作、为完成国务院规定的到2020年我国单位国内生产总值二氧化碳排放强度比2005年下降40%~45%的约束性指标,奠定数据理论基础。     

Toxicity assessing for chlorpyrifos-contaminated soil with three different earthworm test methods

Earthworm toxicity tests are useful tools for terrestrial risk assessment but require a hierarchy of test designs that differ in effect levels (behavior, sublethal, lethal). In this study, the toxicity of chlorpyrifos contaminated soil on earthworms was assessed. In addition to the acute and chronic tests, an avoidance response test was applied. Earthworms were exposed to sublethal and lethal concentration of chlorpyrifos, and evaluated for acute toxicity, growth, fecundity and avoidance response after a certain exposure period. The test methods covered all important ecological relevant endpoints (acute, chronic, behavioral). Concentration of 78.91 mg/kg, chlorpyrifos caused significant toxic effects in all test methods, but at lower test concentrations, only significant chronic toxic effects could be observed. In the present study, chlorpyrifos had adverse effect on growth and fecundity in earthworm exposed to 5 mg/kg chlorpyrifos after eight weeks. The avoidance response test, however, showed significant repellent effects concentration of 40 mg/kg chlorpyrifos. For chlorpyrifos, concentration affecting avoidance response was far greater than growth and fecundity, it seemed likely that earthworms were not able to escape from pesticide-contaminated soil into the clean soil in field and hence were exposed continuously to elevated concentrations of pesticides.     

国内外饮用水余氯限值及监测方法的研究进展

新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情期间大规模使用含氯消毒剂,其残留可能对水环境及人体健康造成影响.我国饮用水水源地质量标准并未设置余氯项目及其浓度限值,且缺乏统一的余氯现场快速分析方法标准.为公共卫生事件发生期间的水质余氯监测与评价提供参考,对国内外饮用水标准余氯限值、实验室标准分析方法、现场快速分析方法等进行汇总分析,结果表明:①不同国家和地区以及WHO（World Health Organization,世界卫生组织）在饮用水标准中分别设置了出厂水中余氯限值（范围为0.1~2.0 mg/L）、管网末梢水中余氯限值（范围为0.1~1.8 mg/L）及饮用水中余氯最大允许浓度（范围为4~5 mg/L）.②比色法、容量法因其具有反应迅速且稳定、准确度及精密度较高等优点而成为国内外实验室主要标准或推荐分析方法,高效液相色谱法检出限最低,灵敏度最高,可用于余氯痕量分析.③余氯现场快速分析方法多以比色法为主,在线监测方法多为电化学方法,但缺乏统一的标准方法.研究显示,国外饮用水标准中余氯最大允许浓度为5 mg/L,WHO推荐高风险环境下的管网末梢余氯浓度最低为0.5 mg/L,建议尽快开展水质余氯现场监测方法标准化研究.      

杨凌生活垃圾处置方法的可行性分析

根据对杨凌城区不同功能区生活垃圾的现场采样,由垃圾的物理组成、含水率、低位热值全N、全P、全K含量以及垃圾中可堆腐物和筛下物中的重金属含量的测定结果,分析了应用填埋、焚烧和堆肥法对杨凌城区生活垃圾进行处置的可行性,对采用填埋、焚烧+填埋、堆肥+填埋处置生活垃圾的投资、社会等综合效益进行了分析。结果表明,焚烧+填埋的处置方式虽然在占用土地量、稳定化时间、减量化程度以及废物削减率等方面具有特殊的优势,但由于投资和处理费用过高,使这一方法在应用中受到限制。从技术、经济、政策等方面综合可虑,采用堆肥+简易填埋的处置方式是比较适合杨凌生活垃圾的特点。     

城市环境质量定量评价方法

文章基于对于城市环境质量的评价方法的研究,阐述了各类评价方法的优缺点,着重介绍了物元模型、投影寻踪评价法、神经网络、遗传算法优化神经网络四种定量评价方法,并介绍了各类方法在城市环境质量评价中的应用现状.