Numerical Simulation of Interaction of the Heavy Gas Cloud with the Atmospheric Surface Layer

The numerical time-dependent three-dimensional model [Kovalets, I.V. and Maderich, V.S.: 2001, Int. J. Fluid Mech. Res. 30, 410–429] of the heavy gas dispersion in the atmospheric boundary layer has been improved by parameterizing momentum and heat fluxes on the surface of Earth using Monin–Obukhov similarity theory. Three parameterizations of heat exchange with the surface of Earth were considered: (A) formula of Yaglom A.M. and Kader B.A. [1974, J. Fluid Mech. 62, 601–623] for forced convection, (B) interpolation formula for mixed convection and (C) similarity relationship for mixed convection [Kader, B.A. and Yaglom, A.M.: 1990, J. Fluid Mech. 212, 637–662]. Two case studies were considered. In the first study based on experiment of Zhu et al., J. Hazard Mater 62, 161–186], the interaction of an isothermal heavy gas plume with an atmospheric surface layer was simulated. It was found that stable stratification in the cloud essentially suppresses the turbulence in the plume, reducing the turbulent momentum flux by a factor of down to 1/5 in comparison with the undisturbed value. This reduction essentially influences velocities in the atmospheric boundary layer above the cloud, increasing the mean velocity by a factor of up to 1.3 in comparison with the undisturbed value. A simulation of cold heavy gas dispersion was carried out in the second case based on field experiment BURRO 8. It was shown that both forced and free convections under moderate wind speeds significantly influence the plume. The relative rms and bias errors of prediction the plume’s height were σ_H ≈ 30% and ɛ_H = − 10%, respectively, for parameterization B, while for A and C the errors were σ_H ≈ 80% and ɛ_H ≈ − 65%. It is therefore advised to use the simple parameterization B in dense gas dispersion models.     

Solving multidimensional bioeconomic problems with singular-perturbation reduction methods: Application to managing pest resistance to pesticidal crops

We investigate the application of ‘singular-perturbation’ reduction methods from the dynamical-systems literature to solve continuous-time multidimensional bioeconomic models resulting from integrating economics with increasingly complex biological structures. These methods reduce multidimensional solution space to the lower-dimensional subspace confining long-term dynamics. They arise naturally in problems with state variables evolving on widely disparate time scales. In particular, we demonstrate how the methods reduce the solution space of a linear-control specification—characterized by two state variables adjusting at widely disparate rates—to a single differential equation in the slow variable. All other system variables are determined by algebraic equations. We apply singular-perturbation methods to investigate the optimal management of pest resistance to pesticidal crops. The pest population evolves on a fast-time scale, while the population's genetic composition evolves on a slow-time scale. In comparison with past work, we can more fully characterize the continuous-time dynamics associated with a complex genetic specification.     

危险化学品泄漏入海区域风险评估方法研究

我国的危险化学品区域风险评估研究工作起步较晚,针对危险化学品泄漏入海的方法研究较少。现有区域风险评估方法中评估对象多为单一风险因素,存在着未全面考虑研究区域内其他风险源和敏感资源等综合影响的不足。在结合国内外研究进展现状的基础上,强化与相关技术方法的衔接,建立了综合考虑危险化学品危险性和区域风险承受力等因素的危险化学品泄漏入海区域风险评估方法工作,并选择天津市XX企业开展方法案例应用。本研究能够为科学合理划分危险化学品泄漏区域海洋环境风险等级提供技术支撑,为开展危险化学品泄漏入海风险防范和修复评估等工作提供决策依据。     

Size distribution in ultraphytoplankton: A comparative analysis of counting methods

Water samples taken at three depth layers from the offshore oligotrophic Cretan Sea were analyzed for ultraphytoplankton size fractionation using different methods: (a) sequential filtration on filters of pore size 5, 1 and 0.2 m, (b) separate filtration using filters 5 and 0.2 m as well as 1 and 0.2 m and (c) direct filtration on 0.2 m filters after staining of the samples with DAPI. Total abundance of photosynthetic organisms as well as the abundance of different groups such as flagellates and cyanobacteria measured by means of sizing after DAPI staining were significantly higher than those obtained by the other methods. This indicates that although there were no significant differences between the estimates provided by the separate and sequential filtration, both these methods underestimated total abundance by at least 25–50%. The estimates for the size fractions were also found to range from relatively imprecise to completely unreliable depending on the group and the size range. Although size fractionation through direct observation after staining largely depends on the expertise of the observer, this study suggests that it may provide more informative estimates than the other two methods. Although it is difficult to generalize the results of this study in a global context, the paper provides strong indications on the limitations of the sequential and separate methods for size fractionation of photosynthetic organisms and implies that their results are likely to be less accurate than is presently believed.     

A Comparison of Three Methods to Collect Submerged Aquatic Vegetation in a Shallow Lake

Two boat-based and one in-water sampling method have been used to collect submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) as part of a long-term monitoring program in Lake Okeechobee, Florida, USA. The boat-based methods consisted of collecting SAV with a ponar dredge, used only to collect Chara, and an oyster tongs-like rake apparatus, used to collect all SAV. The in-water method involved use of a 0.5 m² PVC quadrat frame deployed by a diver. During summer 2002, SAV biomass samples were collected using all three methods at various sites in the lake to compare between-methods sampling precision. Sites used for these comparisons were selected based on plant type, plant density and sediment type. Statistical comparisons indicated that there were significant (p ≤ 0.05) biomass differences in 8 of 15 possible pairwise comparisons between sampling method biomass means. In four of the eight comparisons, significantly higher biomass mean values were obtained using the quadrat frame. In three of the remaining four comparisons, significantly higher biomass mean values were obtained with the rake apparatus. For the fourth comparison, a significantly higher biomass mean value was obtained with the ponar dredge. Three of the four relationships between SAV biomass collected by the rake and the quadrat and the rake and the quadrat/ponar dredge were statistically significant, linear and explained between 67 and 78% of the biomass variability. There were no significant differences between regression coefficients or elevations for these relationships, therefore these regressions estimated the same population regression. The population regression coefficient was 0.95, suggesting that the quadrat and ponar over-sampled relative to the rake, but the amount of this over-sampling was very small. Since there was no consistent pattern in the sampling method which yielded the significantly different biomass values and there were no significant differences in sampling precision across a range of plant species, plant densities and two sediment types, the boat-based rake method appears to be a suitable replacement for the previously used ponar dredge and quadrat methods, when in-lake measurements are not practical.     

Informing global environmental policy‐making: A plea for new methods of assessment and synthesis

Practice and research in assessment of global environmental change are dominated by two conventional assessment methods, formal models and expert panels. Models construct a representation of biophysical and socioeconomic components of a policy issue, to project future trends or consequences of interventions. Panels articulate consensus views of policyrelevant knowledge through deliberations among selected experts. These methods make valuable contributions, but are weak in addressing certain kinds of knowledge needs that are typical of globalchange issues. To address these needs, a set of novel assessment methods is proposed that combine elements of representation and deliberation. These methods, of which policy exercises, simulationgaming, and scenario exercises are examples, involve human participants in structured relevant decision and task settings. Relative to models and panels, these methods can more readily incorporate diverse perspectives, can integrate across broader collections of knowledge domains, and can both encourage creative insights and innovations, and provide tests of their relevance and practicality. Risks of bias, and of overconfident generalization from unique experiences, are effectively mitigated by critical debriefings, and appear no more severe than corresponding risks in conventional assessment methods, or in policymakers generalizations from historical experience. While serious development and implementation challenges remain, early experience suggests that these methods can offer useful ideas and insights for policymaking that are not available through other means.     

HYDROLOGIC CALIBRATION OF THE SWAT MODEL IN A WATERSHED CONTAINING FRAGIPAN SOILS1

ABSTRACT: The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, designed for use on rural ungaged basins and incorporating a GRASS GIS interface, was used to model the hydrologic response of the Ariel Creek watershed of northeastern Pennsylvania. Model evaluation of daily flow prior to calibration revealed a deviation of runoff volumes (D_v) of 68.3 percent and a Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of-0.03. Model performance was affected by unusually large observed snowmelt events and the inability of the model to accurately simulate baseflow, which was influenced by the presence of fragipans. Seventy-five percent of the soils in the watershed contain fragipans. Model calibration yielded a D_v of 39.9 percent and a Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of 0.04, when compared on a daily basis. Monthly comparisons yielded a Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of 0.14. Snowmelt events in the springs of 1993 and 1994, which were unusually severe, were not adequately simulated. Neglecting these severe events, which produced the largest and third largest measured flows for the period of record, a D_v of 4.1 percent and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of 0.20 were calculated on a daily comparison, while on a monthly basis the Nash-Sutciffe coefficient was 0.55. These results suggest that the SWAT model is better suited to longer period simulations of hydrologic yields. Baseflow volumes were accurately simulated after calibration (D_v= -0.2 percent). Refinements made to the algorithms controlling subsurface hydrology and snowmelt, to better represent the presence of fragipans and snowmelt events, would likely improve model performance.     

Including spatial contiguity information in the analysis of multispecific patterns

In this paper we analyse an ordination method in which spatial contiguity information is included. The original method, proposed by Ver Hoef and Glenn-Lewin (1989), is extended, using graphs to describe spatial contiguity for several sampling schemes where locations are given. Extensions for two dimensional grids and for the case of discrete measures of abundance are analysed. Applications to simulated transect frequency data and real data collected on a regular grid are reported.