隧洞施工通风系统事故树分析

在采矿、铁路、公路及水利水电工程中，常常采用长距离隧洞或隧道来穿越高山。而隧洞的施工以其施工技术复杂、难度大、风险高，经常成为控制工程工期的主要环节，隧洞施工中的通风换气系统，关系到施工能否顺利进行和施工作业人员的人身安全，根据隧洞施工通风系统的运行特点，采用安全系统分析中的事故树（FTA）方法，对隧洞施工中通风系统的安全性进行定性分析，找出影响通风安全的主要因素，并提出了通风安全管理对策，可以保证施工作业的顺利进行和人身安全，提高整个施工作业的安全度。     

基于小波包分析的爆破振动危害评价初探

结合振动主频的质点振速判据是对单一质点振速判据的补充和完善.但该判据的振动主频是通过FFT变换的频谱分析的方法获得的,不能体现爆破振动波形的多主振频带特征,而且由于方法本身的局限性使得主振频率发生的时间段不能确定.小波包分析法则克服了FFT频谱分析的局限,有效地分解和重构原始信号中的细节信号,并将其作为评价不同频率细节信号的爆破振动危害效果的基础.本文针对爆破振动的小波包分析法进行了研究,对各小波包细节信号加载条件下的不同危害效果进行了讨论,得到了相应的质点振速判据,并将该方法所得到的判据与FFT变换的频谱分析方法所得到的判据进行了对比.结果表明,基于小波包分析法的质点振速判据更加符合爆破振动危害的真实情况.     

2002年7-10月国内安全事故数据

统计了2002年7-10月国内发生的各种安全事故1231起,包括矿业事故、交通事故、爆炸事故、火灾、毒物泄露和中毒及其他事故.统计表明,在这些事故中,矿业事故最多,占63.1%,平均每天6.5起事故,其次是交通事故(18.6%)、其他事故(6.0%)、爆炸事故(4.8%)、毒物泄露和中毒(4.1%)、火灾(3.3%).1231起事故共死亡2 773人,伤3 206人,死亡人数的百分比分别为矿业事故48.9%、交通事故34.5%、其他事故8.3%、爆炸事故3.8%、泄露中毒2.8%、火灾1.7%;受伤人数的百分比分别为交通事故51.7%、泄露中毒19.1%、矿业事故12.2%、其他事故8.1%、爆炸事故7.0%、火灾1.9%.     

太湖流域主要城市洪涝灾害生态风险评价

太湖流域有上海，苏州，无锡，常州，镇江，杭州，嘉兴，湖州八个大中城市，是我国产业最集中，工农业最发达的地区之一，但该地区洪涝灾害频繁，这不仅制约了流域中各城市经济的发展，还严重威胁到该地区城市的生存平衡，本文根据生存风险评价原理，结合太湖流域的自然特点，提出成因分析法的指标模型。并通过分析太湖流域八个大中城市的汛期降雨量和地形地貌因子对洪涝灾害生态风险的影响度，得出各个城市洪涝灾害的生态风险度，最后还根据各城市风险度的大小及其主导因素的不同，提出了如何管理洪涝灾害生态风险的建议。     

大中城市震害预测与辅助决策的空间分析

利用GIS的空间分析功能，对大中城市防震减灾示范研究成果进行了空间区划分析，给出了城市高危害街区的计算方法和结果，同时给出了各种结构类型房屋破坏面积、人员伤亡和无家可归人口数在各个街区的空间分布结果，以及基于此空间分布结果的医疗救护、人员疏散和物资供应等辅助决策分析。该分析的主要意义在于能充分了解大中城市潜在震害的空间分布，为震前采取相应预防措施和震后开展应急救灾工作提供了方便。     

中国东南沿海重点城市台风危险性分析

中国东南沿海地区是中国经济最发达，人口最稠密的地区，同时也是世界上受台风影响最严重的地区之一。本文以上海经9个沿海重点为例，通过对《台风年鉴》数据的分析处理，提取了台风关键参数并进行了统计分析与建模；利用Monte Carlo抽样和成熟台风风场模型模拟，得到了极值风速序列，对年极值风速序列进行极值风速统计分析，得到了不同重现期和地貌的极值风速，结果与实测风速比较吻合。     

水化前兆观测的探讨和反思

从水文地球化学的角度说明利用水化组分预报地震是可行的 ,并以历次地震的震例说明水化组分具有映震能力 ,进而对映震组分的不灵敏原因作了探讨。并就今后如何利用水化观测手段进行地震预报的分析研究提出几点建议。     

山东地震台网数字与模拟记录资料对比分析

对山东数字化台网荣成、烟台、莱阳、潍坊、苍山和大山台记录的垂直向P波初动半振幅、S波与P波的振幅比、P波、S波的卓越周期及振动持续时间比等参数进行了测算,并将之与同台址相应的模拟记录进行了对比,得出分析结果为:1 数字记录的速度震级较模拟记录的位移震级平均偏小0 11,数字记录的仿真震级与模拟记录的位移震级基本一致。2 数字记录的地震波参数与模拟记录一致性较好,没有明显差异。     

AN ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT OF GROUND WATER RECHARGE IN THE TUCSON BASIN1

ABSTRACT: Bringing water from Colorado River via the Central Arizona Project was perceived as the sole solution for Tucson Basin's water problem. Soon after Central Arizona Project's water arrived in Tucson in 1992, its quality provoked a quarrel over its use for potable purposes. A significant outcome of that quarrel was the enactment of the 1995 Proposition 200. The Proposition 200 precludes the use of Central Arizona Project's water for potable purposes, unless it is treated. Yet, it encourages using it for non‐potable purposes and for replenishing the Tucson aquifer through recharge. This paper examines the economic issues involved in utilizing Central Arizona Project's water for recharge. Four planning scenarios were designed to measure and compare the costs and benefits with and without Central Arizona Project's water recharge. Cost‐benefit analysis was utilized to measure recharge costs and benefits and to derive a rough estimate of cost savings from preventing land subsidence. The results indicate that the institutional requirements can be met with Central Arizona Project's water recharge. The economic benefits from reducing pumping cost and saving groundwater are not economically significant. Yet, when combining the use of Central Arizona Project's water for recharge and non‐potable purposes, it demonstrates positive net economic benefits.     

PRECIPITATION CHANGES FROM 1956 TO 1996 ON THE WALNUT GULCH EXPERIMENTAL WATERSHED1

ABSTRACT: The climate of Southern Arizona is dominated by summer precipitation, which accounts for over 60 percent of the annual total. Summer and non‐summer precipitation data from the USDA‐ARS Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed are analyzed to identify trends in precipitation characteristics from 1956 to 1996. During this period, annual precipitation increased. The annual precipitation increase can be attributed to an increase in precipitation during non‐summer months, and is paralleled by an increase in the proportion of annual precipitation contributed during non‐summer months. This finding is consistent with previously reported increases in non‐summer precipitation in the southwestern United States. Detailed event data were analyzed to provide insight into the characteristics of precipitation events during this time period. Precipitation event data were characterized based on the number of events, event precipitation amount, 30‐minute event intensity, and event duration. The trend in non‐summer precipitation appears to be a result of increased event frequency since the number of events increased during nonsummer months, although the average amount per event, average event intensity, and average event duration did not. During the summer “monsoon” season, the frequency of recorded precipitation events increased but the average precipitation amount per event decreased. Knowledge of precipitation trends and the characteristics of events that make up a precipitation time series is a critical first step in understanding and managing water resources in semiarid ecosystems.