中国碳市场波动溢出效应研究

自2013年以来,中国已先后建立了七个区域性碳市场。研究中国碳市场之间的波动溢出效应,有助于发现在碳市场运行初期起价格引导作用的区域市场,为其它地区碳市场的发展和全国碳市场的建立提供建议。本文选择广东、湖北和深圳三个交易量最大的区域碳市场为样本,利用多元GARCH(1,1)-BEKK模型,检验其波动溢出效应。为了消除履约期的影响,本文根据履约期将样本划分为阶段一(2014年7月1日—2015年6月30日)和阶段二(2015年7月1日—2016年7月19日),分阶段进行了检验,并从市场有效性的视角解释了检验结果。波动溢出效应检验结果显示:在阶段一内,广东碳市场对湖北碳市场、湖北碳市场对深圳碳市场、深圳碳市场对广东碳市场分别存在单向的波动溢出效应;在阶段二内,只存在深圳碳市场对广东碳市场的单向波动溢出效应;在整个样本期内,只存在深圳碳市场对广东碳市场的单向波动溢出效应。基于方差比的市场有效性检验结果显示:无论是阶段一、阶段二或整个样本期,三个碳市场均没有达到弱式有效。本文进一步在多重分形检验的基础上,利用多重分形谱宽度,比较了三个碳市场的非有效性程度,结果显示:在阶段一、阶段二和整个样本期,三个碳市场有效性大小关系分别为:湖北广东深圳、深圳湖北广东、广东深圳湖北。可见,三个碳市场早期的波动溢出效应不完全符合市场有效性大小关系,而较晚期的波动溢出效应符合市场有效性大小关系,这证明了中国碳市场在阶段二相比阶段一更为成熟。本文最后对中国碳排放权交易市场的发展提出了政策建议。     

The key elements analysis of Guangdong & Shenzhen ETS & tips for China national ETS construction

The only joint effort area of provincial and municipal governments resides in Guangdong Province and Shenzhen City in China’s carbon emission trading system (ETS) pilots, which characterize the national carbon ETS plots. The present study on the operating experience from this area has important reference value for the national carbon ETS. Analysis and comparison of the key elements show many differences in coverage, total allowance, allowance allocation, and MRV mechanism between Guangdong and Shenzhen carbon ETS. The present study provides the following explanation: (1) the design characteristics of carbon ETS (e.g. coverage, total quotas, the allocation, and MRV mechanism) depend on the local geographical conditions and policy goals. The differences of economic structure in Guangdong Province and Shenzhen City result in different coverage, which then result in differences in other management elements. (2) The operating state of the carbon market is affected by overall design of carbon ETS: in the case of tighter total allowance, lower proportion of China Certified Emission Reductions, and harsher punishment, the carbon market is relatively active, which intends to produce carbon financial market. Based on deep analysis of operation characteristics of carbon ETS in Guangdong and Shenzhen, the present study suggests that (1) the allowance should be allocated freely at the beginning stage and then gradually transited to the voluntary paid auction; (2) the allowances assigned to companies shall be linked up with their energy-saving objectives; (3) the output fluctuations and economic influence on the allowance allocation should be properly handled to maintain the fairness and consistence of allowance allocation standards; (4) stable public expectation is one of the key elements to maintain the regular operation of carbon ETS; (5) constrained carbon emission behavior outside ETS can contribute to social justice; and (6) the improvement of professional skills of relevant personnel in the enterprise and independent third party can enhance carbon emissions data reliability.     

基于LCA的废旧资源循环利用节能减排效果评估模式与方法研究——以吉林省某钢铁企业为例

促进废旧资源循环利用是加快推进我国生态文明建设,完成节能减排目标的必然选择。本文基于生命周期评价模式,从微观企业层面入手,构建产品全生命周期基准流程,引入能量输入与环境输出参数,建立废旧资源循环利用节能减排效果量化核算模型,评估再生产品的节能减排经济成效,并以吉林省某钢铁企业为例,评估"废钢-电炉"短流程和"铁矿石-高炉-转炉"长流程的能源、环境、成本差异,辨识影响废钢再循环节能减排效果的主要因素和重要环节。结果显示,再生钢铁全生命周期与原生钢铁全生命周期相比,节能588.48kgce/t,节能率为84%;主要污染物中SO2减排率最高,达92%;CO2总减排1 180.92 kg/t,减排率为67%;总成本却高出198元/t。其中,炼铁工序的节能量和减碳量最大,烧结工序SO2、NOx和烟(粉)尘减排量最大,焦化工序COD和氨氮减排量最大,回收、加工处理、炼钢环节节能量和减碳量以及SO2、NOx和烟(粉)尘减排量均为负。成本方面,再生钢铁生产成本高于原生钢铁308元/t,虽然再生钢铁由于污染减排可节省56元/t的排污费并获取54元/t的碳交易收益,但都不足以扭转电炉炼钢费用较高的现状。因此,国家应在电炉炼钢方面给予钢企及相关企业适当的财税扶持政策,在电价方面给予钢企一定的优惠或补贴,并完善废钢回收加工体系等,以促进废钢循环利用。基于LCA的废旧资源循环利用节能减排效果评估可以实现对产品生命周期全过程的资源、环境、成本的优化管理。     

基于SD和CLUE-S模型的区域土地利用变化对土壤有机碳储量影响研究

土地利用/土地覆被变化改变土壤呼吸条件,进而对土壤有机碳储量变化产生影响,而土壤有机碳储量则是影响农业可持续发展和全球碳平衡领域的重要因素。以上海市崇明岛为例,运用系统动力学模型(System Dynamics Model)预测2020、2030年土地利用需求变化,结合CLUE-S模型(Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small region extent Model)得出各种用地类型的空间分布,并引用碳密度法估算三种发展幕景下土地利用变化对土壤有机碳储量的影响。结果表明:2030年三种发展幕景土壤有机碳储量分别为:低速发展幕景为3 093.03×106kg,惯性发展幕景为3 079.47×106kg,高速发展幕景为3 059.81×106kg;研究期内土壤有机碳储量呈现缓慢下降趋势,但人类活动对其扰动较小;SD和CLUE-S耦合模型可以从时间和空间两方面对土壤有机碳储量进行模拟,具有可行性;建议通过加强城镇用地集约利用、农田保护、林地建设来减少人为活动对土壤有机碳储量的影响。     

A method to estimate the impact of clear-cutting on nutrient concentrations in boreal headwater streams

Large-scale forestry operations, like clear-cutting, may impair surface water quality if not done with environmental considerations in mind. Catchment and country level estimates of nutrient loads from forestry are generally based on specific export values, i.e., changes in annual exports due to the implemented forestry operations expressed in kg ha⁻¹. We introduce here a specific concentration approach as a method to estimate the impact of clear-cutting on nutrient concentrations and export in headwater streams. This new method is potentially a more dynamic and flexible tool to estimate nutrient loads caused by forestry, because variation in annual runoff can be taken into account in load assessments. We combined water quality data from eight boreal headwater catchment pairs located in Finland and Sweden, where the effect of clear-cutting on stream water quality has been studied experimentally. Statistically significant specific concentration values could be produced for total nitrogen, nitrate, ammonium, and phosphate. The significant increases in the concentrations of these nutrients occurred between 2 and 6 years after clear-cutting. Significant specific concentration values could not be produced for total phosphorus and total organic carbon with the whole dataset, although in some single studies significant increases in their concentrations after clear-cutting were observed. The presented method enables taking into account variation in runoff, temporal dynamics of effects, and the proportional size of the treated area in load calculations. The number of existing studies considering large site-specific variation in responses to clear-cutting is small, and therefore further empirical studies are needed to improve predictive capabilities of the specific concentration values.     

陕北能源化工基地某工业园区水污染物排放总量控制研究

基于水污染物总量控制思路,以陕北能源化工基地某工业园区为研究对象,分析工业园区主要水环境问题及原因,分别对园区企业和集中污水处理厂提出排水水量、水质控制要求,从工程技术措施和管理手段上提出了明确的解决方案和要求。结果表明,各项减排措施实施后,COD、氨氮、石油类物质分别削减49.4%、71.0%、72.6%,园区排水总量控制在1.18万t/d,最终保证园区水污染物总量控制目标的实现。     

浙江省工业烟粉尘总量控制研究

通过对浙江省工业烟粉尘排放总量和排放源现状进行分析,提出工业烟粉尘减排治理对策,对工业烟粉尘4个重点行业(水泥制造行业、火力发电行业、钢铁行业(包括炼钢、钢压延加工和黑色金属铸造行业)、纺织染整行业(包括棉印染精加工、化纤织物染整精加工和棉织造加工行业)排放源的烟粉尘减排途径和潜力进行分析测算,研究提出工业烟粉尘总量控制措施和建议。     

An Avoidable Tragedy at the Sea Cliff (Rincon) Oil Field

Three men were killed and four others were injured during a well drill operation on Hobson Well C-10A in the Sea Cliff Oil Field (also known as Rincon Oil Field), in Ventura County, California, United States, on August 10, 1994, as a result of errors made by the work supervisors at the site. The oil field was under management by Vintage Petroleum, Ltd., which was sued for negligence by the families of the deceased and injured. The coroner's autopsy examination concluded that the cause of the deaths was due to the inhalation of the toxic gas carbon monoxide (CO). This gas was assumed to have been released from the firing of high-energy guns (HEGs) using carbon-rich explosive pentaerythritol tetranitrate (PETN) in an oxygen-depleted environment, during a fracking operation by Schlumberger Corporation on Well C-10A. The author of this article was appointed as an expert witness by Schlumberger to evaluate if the coroner's conclusion was correct. A series of chemical analytical analyses were conducted on the vapor phase of samples, in addition to dissolved components in water from Well C-10A and two adjacent wells. Stable isotope analyses were also conducted on hydrogen (H₂), methane (CH₄), nitrogen (N₂), CO, and water (H₂O) 3 weeks after the accident, as well as on four additional occasions from September to December 1994. Control test analyses were performed on the products from HEG firings, using the same explosives as those used in the perforation of Well C-10A in control chambers at a Schlumberger facility in Houston, Texas. The conclusion reached was that the dominant products of PETN detonations are H₂, CH₄, CO, and N₂. However, the isotope ratios (D/H and ¹³C/¹²C) of methane in the control experiments were different in Well C-10A, following the detonation on August 10, 1994, than those resulting from controlled PETN explosions. The conclusion reached in this study was that the fracking of the well at a depth of around 2,150 ft had increased the permeability of the sediment layers in the Padres Zone at that depth to allow the rapid release of a large quantity of natural gas, primarily CH₄, which supersaturated the water in the well. This event caused the formation of a large bubble, which ballooned out of the well to the surface, displacing air in the location where the men were working, and thus causing asphyxiation, which resulted in the death of the three men. The judge accepted this interpretation.     

以聚己内酯作为生物反硝化固体碳源的研究

为解决水体因低碳氮比而导致脱氮效率差的问题,将颗粒聚己内酯(PCL)重新塑形为阶梯环状,研究其作为反硝化过程的生物膜载体与固相碳源的反硝化性能。结果表明,在静态实验中,平均反硝化速率为8.57 mg NO3-N/(L·h);反硝化过程为零级反应。连续填充床实验中,超过90%的硝酸盐可被去除,出水NO2-N质量浓度低于0.20 mg/L;出水NH3-N质量浓度略有上升;出水溶解性有机碳(DOC)先上升后降低至1 mg/L左右。电子扫描显微镜扫描显示,PCL阶梯环反应表面空隙率较高,表面生物膜以杆菌为主,反应后被明显腐蚀;液相色谱检测显示PCL阶梯环分子量反应前后略有下降,其结构未受到破坏;表明该材料适合作为反硝化反应的碳源的同时,又可以作为载体供微生物附着生长。     

改性SCAC催化臭氧氧化去除布洛芬效能与反应活性位点研究

采用不同的表面改性方法(去矿化处理、氧化改性、碱改性和还原改性)对污泥基活性炭(SCAC)进行处理,分别获得了表面金属含量低、碱位低、碱性官能团含量高及Lewis碱含量高的4种改性SCAC(SCAC-D、SCAC-S、SCAC-OH和SCAC-N),对比考察了改性前后SCAC催化臭氧氧化去除布洛芬(IBP)的效能,并探讨了SCAC催化臭氧氧化反应的主要活性位点。结果表明,5种SCAC催化活性顺序为:SCAC-N>SCAC-OH>SCAC>SCAC-S>SCAC-D;金属组分减少会直接影响SCAC的催化活性,碱位减少对其催化活性的影响相对较弱,说明SCAC表面较为丰富的金属组分是其催化臭氧氧化反应的主要活性位点;增加SCAC表面碱位(Lewis碱和碱性官能团),减少表面酸性官能团有助于提高其催化活性。