基于博弈赋权物元和证据理论的无线闭塞中心风险评估*

为客观地对无线闭塞中心进行风险评估,建立基于博弈赋权物元和证据理论的评估模型,根据故障树分析法识别的风险因子构建评估指标体系,采用博弈论思想对直觉模糊层次分析法计算的主观权重和熵权法计算的客观权重进行最优组合,进而确定综合权重。运用物元理论和证据理论确定各指标的风险等级和系统整体风险等级,并通过实例分析对评估模型进行对比验证。结果表明:无线闭塞中心整体风险等级为“可容许的”,与实际情况相符。其中,系统外部通信故障的风险等级为“不期望的”,需要对其相关设备加强风险控制。     

Waste management from the perspective of circularity of materials

The purpose of the study was to analyze the social phenomenon of collecting animal carcasses from rural properties using the perspective of the ecological modernization theory. The results show that the success of the Recolhe pilot project is associated with users’ engagement in environmental awareness, environmental regulations, sanitary and environmental risk management, minimization of labor in rural properties, and municipal legal pressures.     

The undermining effect revisited: The salience of everyday verbal rewards and self‐determined motivation

Self‐determination theory suggests that some rewards can undermine autonomous motivation and related positive outcomes. Key to this undermining is the extent to which rewards are perceived as salient in a given situation; when this is the case, individuals tend to attribute their behavior to the incentive, and the intrinsic value of the task is undermined. The role of salience has yet to be explicitly tested with respect to work motivation; we know little about whether undermining occurs in relation to verbal rewards, which characterize everyday work. We examine this in a field‐based quantitative diary study of 58 employees reporting 287 critical incidents of motivated behavior. When considering simple direct effects, the undermining effect was not supported; highly salient verbal rewards associated positively with introjected and external motivation, but at no cost to autonomous motivation. However, moderator analysis found support for the undermining effect for complex tasks; highly salient verbal rewards associated positively with external motivation while associating negatively with intrinsic and identified motivation. The findings suggest that verbal reward salience is an important characteristic of verbal reward perceptions and that salient verbal rewards are not advisable for more complex tasks but can have a valuable motivational impact for simple tasks. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Why we need theory in the organization sciences

To make the case that theory is a necessary part of research in the organization sciences, I develop three lines of argument. In the first, drawing upon Staw and Sutton's (1995, “What theory is not” Administrative Science Quarterly, 40, 371–384) classic piece, I outline the boundaries of theory and, using a recently published empirical article as an example, demonstrate how research based on literature references and line‐and‐box diagrams instead of explanatory theory can make only a limited contribution to the literature. I next discuss more generally the pitfalls of conducting research without first developing theory, citing the example of malaria. In the final section of the article, I defend the role of theory‐review articles, such as those published in the Academy of Management Review, and illustrate (again by reference to an example) how such articles are critical to advancing organizational research. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于环境监管平台的脱硫效率双膜模型及优化

针对内蒙古自治区火力发电厂烟气脱硫装置运行现状,结合内蒙古环保厅工况在线平台和总量核算需求,以双膜理论为基础模拟脱硫喷淋塔内部的化学反应及相际传质过程,建立一个包含所有含硫组分浓度及传质速率的数学模型。得到的常系数微分方程用Runge-Kutta法求解。为适应环境监管平台的需要,对模型进行优化,得到一个脱硫效率模型。将模型预测结果与在线监测数据进行比较,误差分析表明模型具有较高的预测能力,且对不同的机组具有通用性。     

Community reactions to tourism development: how does governmental fairness work?

Based on the elements of social exchange and organizational justice theories, a conceptual model and associated hypotheses were formulated to examine the relationship among community residents and their perceptions of governmental fairness (i.e., distributive, procedural, interpersonal, and informational dimensions), social capital (i.e., cognitive and structural dimensions), and support for government and environmental development. Data were collected from 496 residents in four Korean cities: Busan, Gyeongju, Pohang, and Ulsan. Empirical testing resulted in support for multiple hypotheses. More specifically, cognitive social capital was significantly influenced by distributive, interpersonal, and informational fairness. Structural social capital was significantly affected by distributive and informational fairness. Subsequently, two dimensions of social capital positively influenced two types of support. Overall, the results suggest that the interplay of governmental fairness and social capital is important in influencing residents’ support for government and environmental development.     

内陆水体后向散射系数模拟研究

在利用半分析方法结合光学闭合原理模拟水体后向散射系数的过程中,参考波长的选择对最终结果有较大影响.为了得出最佳参考波长的影响因子,利用太湖、巢湖和滇池的野外实测数据,对后向散射系数进行模拟,进而分析水体的最佳参考波长与其对应的水质参数浓度之间的变化规律.同时,建立了太湖、巢湖和滇池水体的后向散射系数曲线的幂函数光谱模型,获得的光谱指数分别为2.643±0.317、 2.719±0.242、 1.638±0.534.结果表明：①以整个湖泊为研究对象时,最佳参考波长随着湖泊水体中总颗粒物浓度c_SPM、有机颗粒物浓度c_SPOM和叶绿素浓度c_CHL平均值的增大而向长波方向移动,太湖、巢湖和滇池水体的最佳参考波长分别为695、 720和730 nm;②以单个湖泊的各个样点为研究对象时,由于内陆湖泊光学特性的复杂性,最佳参考波长的影响因子存在一定差异,但c_SPM是一个共同的影响因子.此外,过高的c_CHL将削弱水质参数浓度与最佳参考波长间的规律性;③在以无机颗粒物为主的水体中,后向散射系数与总颗粒物浓度之间存在更好的相关性,如在太湖水体中,R²达到0.852.     

工业-环境系统的非线性描述

利用自组织的理论与方法建立了一个描述工业－环境系统时间演化的非线性动力学模型。该模型刻画了产值,环保投资,改进生产技术以及环境容量的数量关系,模型简单易于应用。本文还应用所建立的模型研究了白银地区工业发展和环境问题。     

冲突分析理论方法及其在环境管理中的实例研究

对冲突分析的基本概念和原理做了简要介绍,以环境规划管理的的业务为背景,指出冲突问题的广泛存在和研究冲突分析的必要性,并就＂污染集中治理的投资分摊问题＂进行深入地探讨,提出了5种协商解,通过分析比较,推荐＂不次于N－1方合作收益的协商解＂作为一般问题的解,对于同情弱势方的仲裁者,则推荐＂以不合作为现状点的基于满意度的协商解＂。     

Cooperative Solutions for Sustainable Resource Management

n -person game theory are most appropriate for these problems because they focus on the conditions for engendering and sustaining the necessary cooperation among the involved stakeholders. These solution concepts seek to ensure that the allocation is based on some norm of equity and, most often, also to minimize the incentive for any player to defect from the cooperative venture. We illustrate these solution concepts with an application to a water resource project in Southern California. We argue how the rigorous mathematical nature of these solution concepts should not hinder their application to actual situations and how, with the use of heuristic rules and inexact notions of comparable worths, we can employ these concepts even in approximate fashion. We remind ourselves that the goal of such an endeavor is to convince stakeholders of the equity of a proposed solution and, in so doing, maximize the prospect of sustained cooperation. The alternative to cooperation, on the other hand, may be endless stalemate.