An urban pipeline accident model based on system engineering and game theory

Urban pipeline accidents are caused by complex social-technical factors, in which urban communities and pipeline systems are involved. Such accidents can thus be investigated from the viewpoint of system engineering. System-Theoretic Accident Model and Processes (STAMP) is a systemic method for safety assessment, which has been adopted in many domains. This approach can provide deep insights of accident causes by considering direct and indirect factors. Meanwhile, competition and cooperation between stakeholders in accidents are observed. Therefore, these parties can also be analyzed with the game theory. That is, stakeholders in STAMP can be regarded as players in game. The aim of this paper is to provide a new insight to analyze urban pipeline accidents by considering both STAMP and game theory. In this paper, we proposed an accident model for urban pipelines, with a case study of China-Qingdao pipeline accident occurred in 2013. We concluded that accident reasons can be investigated in-depth and lessons can be learned from analyzing causal factors by using STAMP. Based on results generated from STAMP, we applied the game theory to analyze roles that government and companies act in the China-Qingdao urban pipeline accident. The results show that current punishment and incentive systems are incomplete, lacking of the driving force and constraining force for the stakeholders involved in the accident.     

基于扎根理论的瓦斯爆炸风险累积效应研究*

为研究瓦斯爆炸风险在事故发展中的累积过程，揭示瓦斯爆炸事故的风险累积机理，引入累积效应的研究思想。首先界定风险累积概念，分析风险累积过程；然后运用案例研究、专家调查等方法分析瓦斯爆炸风险累积的累积源、途径，并应用扎根理论方法提取风险类型并研究风险累积过程；在此基础上，运用系统动力学软件绘制瓦斯爆炸风险累积路径图，将风险的累积过程可视化。研究表明:瓦斯爆炸风险存在累积过程，主要通过加和累积和放大累积方式累积，累积时间越长，越易引发新风险，其中管理风险累积影响人、物、环的状态，而人、物、环风险累积过程直接影响瓦斯爆炸事故发生进程。研究结果为瓦斯爆炸事故原因分析提供1种新方法，对煤矿企业的事故预防和风险管控具有一定指导和参考意义。     

Application of game theory for a groundwater conflict in Mexico

Exploitation of scarce water resources, particularly in areas of high demand, inevitably produces conflict among disparate stakeholders, each of whom may have their own set of priorities. In order to arrive at a socially acceptable compromise, the decision-makers should seek an optimal trade-off between conflicting objectives that reflect the priorities of the various stakeholders. In this study, game theory was applied to a multiobjective conflict problem for the Alto Rio Lerma Irrigation District, located in the state of Guanajuato in Mexico, where economic benefits from agricultural production should be balanced with associated negative environmental impacts. The short period of rainfall in this area, combined with high groundwater withdrawals from irrigation wells, has produced severe aquifer overdraft. In addition, current agricultural practices of applying high loads of fertilizers and pesticides have contaminated regions of the aquifer. The net economic benefit to this agricultural region in the short-term lies with increasing crop yields, which requires large pumping extractions for irrigation as well as high chemical loading. In the longer term, this can produce economic loss due to higher pumping costs (i.e., higher lift requirements), or even loss of the aquifer as a viable source of water. Negative environmental impacts include continued diminishment of groundwater quality, and declining groundwater levels in the basin, which can damage surface water systems that support environmental habitats. The two primary stakeholders or players, the farmers in the irrigation district and the community at large, must find an optimal balance between positive economic benefits and negative environmental impacts. In this paper, game theory was applied to find the optimal solution between the two conflicting objectives among 12 alternative groundwater extraction scenarios. Different attributes were used to quantify the benefits and costs of the two objectives, and, following generation of the Pareto frontier or trade-off curve, four conflict resolution methods were then applied.     

Watershed-based point sources permitting strategy and dynamic permit-trading analysis

Permit-trading policy in a total maximum daily load (TMDL) program may provide an additional avenue to produce environmental benefit, which closely approximates what would be achieved through a command and control approach, with relatively lower costs. One of the important considerations that might affect the effective trading mechanism is to determine the dynamic transaction prices and trading ratios in response to seasonal changes of assimilative capacity in the river. Advanced studies associated with multi-temporal spatially varied trading ratios among point sources to manage water pollution hold considerable potential for industries and policy makers alike. This paper aims to present an integrated simulation and optimization analysis for generating spatially varied trading ratios and evaluating seasonal transaction prices accordingly. It is designed to configure a permit-trading structure basin-wide and provide decision makers with a wealth of cost-effective, technology-oriented, risk-informed, and community-based management strategies. The case study, seamlessly integrating a QUAL2E simulation model with an optimal waste load allocation (WLA) scheme in a designated TMDL study area, helps understand the complexity of varying environmental resources values over space and time. The pollutants of concern in this region, which are eligible for trading, mainly include both biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) and ammonia-nitrogen (NH3-N). The problem solution, as a consequence, suggests an array of waste load reduction targets in a well-defined WLA scheme and exhibits a dynamic permit-trading framework among different sub-watersheds in the study area. Research findings gained in this paper may extend to any transferable dynamic-discharge permit (TDDP) program worldwide.     

Test case based risk predictions using artificial neural network

INTRODUCTION: The traditional fuzzy-rule-based risk assessment technique has been applied in many industries due to the capability of combining different parameters to obtain an overall risk. However, a drawback occurs as the technique is applied in circumstances where there are multiple parameters to be evaluated that are described by multiple linguistic terms. METHOD: In this study, a risk prediction model incorporating fuzzy set theory and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) capable of resolving the problem encountered is proposed. An algorithm capable of converting the risk-related parameters and the overall risk level from the fuzzy property to the crisp-valued attribute is also developed. Its application is demonstrated by a test case evaluating the navigational safety within port areas. RESULTS: It is concluded that a risk predicting ANN model is capable of generating reliable results as long as the training data takes into account any potential circumstance that may be met. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: This paper provides safety assessment practitioners with a novel and flexible framework of modelling risks using a fuzzy-rule-base technique. It is especially applicable in circumstances where there are multiple parameters to be considered. The proposed framework also enables the port industry to manage navigational safety in a rational manner.     

基于混沌理论的企业危机管理研究

企业的有效运行和发展历程中都不可避免会面临不同程度的危机,揭示其危机成因,回避危机、化解风险十分重要。企业危机是一个复杂的非线性的能量耗散系统,具有类似混沌的本质特征。笔者运用混沌理论,从“消极、失误、弊病”角度研究企业危机现象,着重探讨企业危机的混沌特征及其发生动因,并提出危机的混沌理论管理原则。针对企业实际,给出控制危机混沌发生,改变危机系统的动态行为,以化解或转化危机的5种对策及方法,实现企业可持续发展。     

热侵袭下液化天然气储罐升压的突变机理

液化天然气(LNG)储运过程中受热侵袭造成储罐压力升高具有极大的危险性.用范德华方程描述具有一定过热度的LNG汽化相变过程,引入微分同胚项对其进行变换,发现其形式符合尖点突变平衡点方程,揭示了突变机理是储罐内LNG大规模蒸发现象的本质特征.选取过热区内的LNG作为一个系统,运用系统论和突变动力学方法对势函数及其微商曲线进行研究,得到了极限过热度、失稳过热度及储罐内部压力增量和系统内液化天然气汽化量之间的关系.     

矿井瓦斯涌出量预测的GM(1,1)模型研究

矿井瓦斯渗出量预测,对矿井安全及正常生产至关重要。由于矿井瓦斯涌出量的影响因索、关联变量和约束条件复杂,对各因素之间的影响程度难以区分和把握,因此在预测预报中的精度较差。而采用灰色理论则具有高度的概括性,可以把各种不确定的因素,统一用一个简单的“灰数”表示,预测精度高而且使用简单。在分析某矿历年来相对瓦斯涌出量的基础上,应用灰色系统理论对其瓦斯涌出量进行了预测,其方法与结果对预防煤矿恶性事故的发生,悍证煤矿的安全生产具有重要意义。     

委托代理理论视角下特种设备安全监管改进研究

针对特种设备数量和种类不断增多与安全监管力量不足问题,首先阐述特种设备安全监管内涵,分析其涉及的委托代理关系;然后基于委托代理理论构建特种设备安全监管委托代理数学模型,并利用激励相容约束条件讨论监管力度、安全投入、公众信任度等因素对特种设备安全监管效果的影响及内在机制;最后提出进一步提高特种设备安全水平的改进策略.结果...