1970—2013年西北干旱区空中水汽含量时空变化与降水量的关系

论文基于1970—2013年西北干旱区高空和地面气象资料,采用多种统计学方法,分析了西北干旱区空中水汽含量的时空变化特征及其与降水量的关系。结果表明：1）1970—2002年,西北干旱区空中水汽含量呈显著的增加趋势,速率为0.835 mm/10 a（P<0.01）,其中以夏季增速最高（1.709 mm/10 a,P<0.01）;而降水效率基本稳定,仅春、冬季节略增。在空间上,1970—2002年水汽含量变化速率大小依次为北疆>南疆>河西走廊,其中冬、春季节以北疆水汽增速最大,夏、秋季节以南疆水汽增速最高。2）2003—2013年,西北干旱区水汽含量呈不显著下降趋势（-2.061 mm/10 a）;而降水效率明显增加,速率为0.136%/10 a,这说明近年来空中水汽转化为降水的效率明显提升。同时,北疆降水效率增加幅度明显高于其他地区。3）西北干旱区各季节的降水效率与降水量均呈显著正相关性,而水汽含量与降水量的相关性则表现出明显的季节性差异：春季>夏季>秋季>冬季。另外,新疆降水变化与水汽含量和降水效率均呈显著正相关性,而河西走廊降水量与降水效率的关系更为密切。     

Are current Chinese national ambient air quality standards on 24-hour averages for particulate matter sufficient to protect public health?

With rapid economic development and urbanization in recent decades, China has experienced the worsening of ambient air quality. For better air quality management to protect human health, Chinese government revised national ambient air quality standards(NAAQS) for particulate matter(PM) in 2012(GB3095-2012). To assess the effectiveness of current NAAQS for PM on public health in Chinese population, we conducted a metaanalysis on published studies examining the mortality risk of short-term exposure to PM with aerodynamic diameters less than 10 and 2.5 μm(PM_(10) and PM_(2.5)) in China. The reported24-hour concentrations of PM_(10) and PM_(2.5) in studies ranged from 43.5 to 150.1 μg/m~3 and 37.5 to 176.7 μg/m~3. In the pooled excess, mortality risk estimates of short-term exposure to PM.In specific, per 10 μg/m~3 increase in PM_(10), we observed increases of 0.40%(95%CI: 0.33%,0.47%), 0.57%(95%CI: 0.44%, 0.70%) and 0.49%(95%CI: 0.40%, 0.58%) in total, respiratory and cardiovascular mortality, per 10 μg/m~3 increase in PM_(2.5), we observed increases of 0.51%(95%CI: 0.38%, 0.63%), 0.62%(95%CI: 0.52%, 0.73%) and 0.75%(95%CI: 0.54%, 0.95%) in total,respiratory and cardiovascular mortality. Finally, we derived 125 μg/m~3 for PM_(10) and 62.5 μg/m~3 for PM_(2.5) as 24-hour recommendation values based on the pooled estimates. Our results indicated that current Chinese NAAQS for PM could be sufficient in mitigating the excess mortality risk from short-term exposure to ambient PM. However, future research on longterm exposure cohort studies in Chinese population is also essential in revising annual averages for PM in Chinese NAAQS.     

Investigating missing sources of glyoxal over China using a regional air quality model (RAMS-CMAQ)

Currently, modeling studies tend to significantly underestimate observed space-based glyoxal(CHOCHO) vertical column densities(VCDs), implying the existence of missing sources of glyoxal. Several recent studies suggest that the emissions of aromatic compounds and molar yields of glyoxal in the chemical mechanisms may both be underestimated, which can affect the simulated glyoxal concentrations. In this study, the influences of these two factors on glyoxal amounts over China were investigated using the RAMS-CMAQ modeling system for January and July 2014. Four sensitivity simulations were performed, and the results were compared to satellite observations. These results demonstrated significant impacts on glyoxal concentrations from these two factors.In case 1, where the emissions of aromatic compounds were increased three-fold,improvements to glyoxal VCDs were seen in high anthropogenic emissions regions. In case 2, where molar yields of glyoxal from isoprene were increased five-fold, the resulted concentrations in July were 3–5-fold higher, achieving closer agreement between the modeled and measured glyoxal VCDs. The combined changes from both cases 1 and 2 were applied in case 3, and the model succeeded in further reducing the underestimations of glyoxal VCDs. However, the results over most of the regions with pronounced anthropogenic emissions were still underestimated. So the molar yields of glyoxal from anthropogenic precursors were considered in case 4. With these additional mole yield changes(a two-fold increase), the improved concentrations agreed better with the measurements in regions of the lower reaches of the Yangtze River and Yellow River in January but not in July.     

我国西南四省(区)大气煤基PAHs排放系统动力学分析

由于未来相当长时期内煤炭在我国的主体能源地位不会改变,全国许多地区均可能面临持续的大气煤基PAHs污染.为此,本文选取PAHs污染相对严重但缺乏足够关注的广西、四川、贵州与云南4个西南省份作为研究对象,基于煤基PAHs排放、能源消耗与经济发展之间的相互作用关系,利用系统动力学方法构建了一套综合评估模型,并将其应用于分析不同情景下西南四省(区)煤基PAHs排放的动态变化.结果表明,在维持情景下,未来10年煤基PAHs排放相对增长率的省份次序为:广西(44.54%)贵州(29.44%)云南(26.37%)四川(-2.19%).经过产业与能耗结构的调整,四川和云南在规划情景下的相对增长率分别比维持情景减少了27.17%和20.88%,这两个省的减排效果最大.同样的情况,贵州与广西仅分别减少了7.32%和5.52%,仍保持较快的增长趋势.要实现煤基PAHs的有效减排,各省份需实施有针对性的调控政策.云南应同时考虑工业源与生活源控制政策,四川应减少工业源排放量,广西和贵州应在进一步优化产业与能耗结构的基础上分别采取工业源和生活源控制政策.总体而言,系统动力学方法适用于分析非常规大气污染物的复杂动态变化,可为当地政府提供科学调控区域经济-能源结构-环境质量之间发展关系的政策参考.     

2017年5-6月国内环境事件

简要统计了2017年5-6月国内发生的各种环境事件142起,包括沙尘天气12起,污染事件16起,地震44起,山体滑坡和泥石流16起,以及其他自然灾害54起.     

Effects of speed-control measures on the safety of unsignalized midblock street crossings in China

Objective: The primary objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of different speed-control measures on the safety of unsignalized midblock street crossings.

Methods: In China, it is quite difficult to obtain traffic crash and conflict data for pedestrians using such crossings, mainly due to the lack of traffic data management and organizational issues. In light of this, the proposed method did not rely on such data, but considered vehicle speed, which is a leading contributing factor of pedestrian safety at mid blocks. To evaluate the speed reduction effects at different locations, the research team utilized the following methods in this study: (1) testing speed differences—on the basis of the collected data, statistical analysis is conducted to test the speed differences between upstream and crosswalk, upstream and downstream, and downstream and crosswalk; and (2) mean distribution deviation—this value is calculated by taking the difference in cumulative speed distributions for the two different samples just mentioned. In order to better understand the variation of speed reduction effects at different distances from speed-control facilities, data were collected from six types of speed-control measures with a visual range of 60 m.

Results: The results showed that speed humps, transverse rumble strips, and speed bumps were effective in reducing vehicle speeds. Among them speed humps performed the best, with reductions of 21.1% and 20.0% from upstream location (25.01 km/h) and downstream location (24.66 km/h) to pedestrian crosswalk (19.73 km/h), respectively. By contrast, the speed reduction effects were minimal for stop and yield signs, flashing yellow lights, and crossings without treatment.

Conclusions: Consequently, in order to reduce vehicle speeds and improve pedestrian safety at mid blocks, several speed-control measures such as speed humps, speed bumps, and transverse rumble strips are recommended to be deployed in the vicinity of pedestrian crosswalks.     

中国大陆地震检测能力的新进展

被普遍记录的最小震级是表征地震检测能力的重要标志。基于地震频度-震级关系统计了地震观测系统的检测率。引进了相应于70.7%检测率的系统震级下限参量Mr以定量表征地震实际观测能力。以1970-2009年40年来中国大陆地区的地震观测目录为基础数据,分三个时间段客观统计了地震台网的观测水平,展示了中国大陆地震检测能力的地理分布。     

我国废弃电器电子产品的EPR执行模式研究

延伸生产者责任,将生产者对产品所负的责任扩展到产品生命周期的消费后阶段,为＂废弃产品的环境影响责任＂找到了合理的承担主体。研究了延伸生产者责任的概念、种类及特征。以德、日、中国台湾为例,分析了发达国家及地区的废弃电器电子产品的EPR执行模式。总结了我国废弃电器电子产品回收处理的现状、原因及具体实施情况。在借鉴他国及地区成功经验的基础上,提出了我国废弃电器电子产品的EPR执行模式。     

国产小轿车车内空气质量初步调查

对使用30d和1a左右的国产中档车（排气量1．5～2．01）进行了检测,结果表明：甲醛、氨和TVOC超标;苯、甲苯和二甲苯合格。分析了污染物超标原因,提出了建议。     

西南地区近60年商品材消耗和经济增长关系

首次定义和使用了"GDP黄金当量"作为经济全球化背景下经济增长的新指标。"GDP黄金当量"是指把历年GDP总量按年均汇价和国际黄金市场年均价换算成黄金重量,其可在一定程度上绕开纸币的贬值或升值,反映GDP的贵金属本质,把资源消耗和经济增长的关系分析转变成物物关系分析。研究资源消耗和经济增长的关系有助于提高资源使用效率和调整经济发展方式。通过分析西南地区1949年以来历年商品材产量、人口数量、GDP总量、GDP黄金当量及其单位木材能耗之间的关系,检验了近现代资源环境与经济发展关系中的"资源诅咒"和"库兹涅茨曲线"假设,结果表明:①1952—2008年GDP总量增长了422倍,人口增长了1倍,GDP黄金当量增加了4.5倍,商品材产量增加了12倍;②商品材产量1997—2000年因天然林保护工程下降了80%,然而2008年的946×104m3又恢复到了天然林保护工程前的水平,总体上增长趋势未变;③经济发展出现3个GDP黄金当量"平台",目前处在第3个"平台"上,GDP黄金当量和商品材产量仅前20 a成线性相关(P0.01);④商品材产量和人口数量之间线性相关显著(P0.01),GDP黄金当量和人口数量之间非参数相关显著(P=0.005),人均GDP增长了162倍,人均GDP黄金当量只增长了1.5倍,商品材产量和人均GDP(或人均GDP黄金当量)之间不存在环境库兹涅茨曲线关系,也不存在森林资源诅咒经济增长现象;⑤每万元GDP或每kg GDP黄金当量的商品材消耗量先增加后减少,呈现倒"U"曲线走势,经济发展走过了劳动和森林资源密集型时期。