A 50-year record of dichloro-diphenyl-trichloroethanes and hexachloro-cyclohexanes in lake sediments and penguin droppings on King George Island, Maritime Antarctic

Since the ban on the use of organochlorine pesticides （OCPs） such as dichloro-diphenyl-trichloroethane （DDT） and hexachlorocyclohexane（HCH） in agriculture, their levels have generally dropped. In a number of cases, however, the levels of these OCPs were found to be unchanging or even increasing after the ban. With the aim to unveil the possible causes of these exceptions, we collected two lake cores from King George Island, West Antarctica, and determined their accumulation flux profiles and temporal trends of these OCPs. In the lake core sediments with glacier meltwater input, the accumulation flux of DDT shows an abnormal peak around 1980s in addition to the expected one in 1960s. In the lake core sediments without glacier meltwater input, the accumulation flux of DDT shows a gradual decline trend after the peak in 1960s. This striking difference in the DDT flux profiles between the two lake cores is most likely caused by the regional climate warming and the resulted discharge of the DDT stored in the Antarctic ice cap into the lakes in the Antarctic glacier frontier. Furthermore, to investigate the change of OCPs loadings in the Antarctic coastal ecosystem, we reconstructed the HCH and DDT concentration profiles in penguin droppings and observed a gradual increase for the former and a continuous decrease for the latter during the past 50 years. The increase of HCH seems to be due to the regional warming from the early 1970s and the resulted HCH discharge to the coastal ecosystem by glaciers＇ meltwater and the illegal use of HCH in the Southern Hemisphere in the recent decade. The different temporal trends of HCH and DDT accumulation rate in the lake core with glacier meltwater input and the aged penguin droppings can be explained by their different water-soluble property.     

长江三角洲近50年耕地数量变化的过程与驱动机制研究

长江三角洲是中国人口最密集、经济增长最快和土地集约化利用程度最高的地区之一,经济快速发展加剧的人地矛盾已经成为区域可持续发展面临的一个重要问题。论文利用近50年耕地长序列统计资料和近5年的土地详查与变更数据,研究揭示了长江三角洲高强度土地开发的特征和近50年耕地数量变化的基本过程及其空间差异,并初步探讨了耕地数量变化的主要驱动因子及其作用。研究表明,近50年来,长江三角洲地区耕地数量呈现明显的波动减少趋势,经历了由增加→急剧减少→缓慢减少→快速减少的基本变化过程,其中分别在1958～1963年、1985年前后和1993年前后出现了三次明显的耕地流失高峰,其形成机制主要是政策、经济发展和人口增长的驱动。     

Characteristics of regional climate change and pattern analysis on Ordos Plateau

The characteristics of precipitation, temperature and their combination determine the special ecological environment pattern of Ordos Plateau. Analyzing its evolutionary trend attributes to understanding the succession process of the ecological environment of Ordos Plateau and has crucial instructional significance on the ecological restoration research being conducted in this region. Four time scales, arranging from ten days, one month, one season (growing season contrasting to non-growing season)to one year were adopted to analyze the climate data which included nearly 30 years and were collected by eight weather stations on Ordos Plateau. The results indicated that the mean annual temperature and the mean monthly temperature of February, September and December, had increased significantly during the late 30 years. The annual precipitation did not show significant changes but its distribution pattern had changed obviously. The ratio of precipitation of major growing season (May-October)to annual precipitation had increased distinctively, and five counties‘ precipitation reached statistically significant level.And the ratio of precipitation of latter growing season (September)to one year decreased significantly while the ratio of non-growing season (November-next April)to one year changed insignificantly. The results showed that maybe the interaction of increased mean temperature and insignificant change of precipitation in non-growing season was one of the reasons why the desertifieation of the region was deteriorating in recent years. Using some factors closely relating to vegetation succession such as mean annual temperature, mean annual precipitation, distributive pattern of precipitation, mean temperature of the coldest month, mean temperature of the warmest month, precipitation of the warmest month,mean temperature of growing season, precipitation of growing season, potential evapotranspiration(PET) and radiative dryness index( RD1), to synthetically analyze the climate characteristics of Ordos Plateau. The regionalized Ordos Plateau to three synthetical climate types were recognized as follows: Type 1, semi-humid and low evaporation(including Jungar Banner, Dongsheng City and Ejin Horo Banner), Type 11,semi-arid, semi-humid and moderate evaporation(including Uxin Banner and Dalad Banner), Type 111, arid and high evaporation(including Hanggin Banner,Otag Banner and Otog Qian Banner).     

The Dynamics of Rural Vulnerability to Global Change: The Case of southern Africa

Research on the agricultural impacts of global change frequently emphasizesthe physical and socioeconomic impacts of climate change, yet globalchanges associated with the internationalization of economic activity mayalso have significant impacts on food systems. Together, climate change andglobalization are exposing farmers to new and unfamiliar conditions.Although some farmers may be in a position to take advantage of thesechanges, many more are facing increased vulnerability, particularly in thedeveloping world. This paper considers the dynamics of agriculturalvulnerability to global change through the example of southern Africa. Wedemonstrate that the combination of global and national economic changesis altering the context under which southern African farmers cope withclimate variability and adapt to long-term change. We find that farmers whoformerly had difficulty adapting to climatic variability may become lessvulnerable to drought-related food shortages as the result of tradeliberalization. At the same time, however, removal of national credit andsubsidies may constrain or limit adaptation strategies of other farmers,leaving them more vulnerable to climate variability and change.     

安西极旱荒漠国家级自然保护区鸟类资源的消长变化

1988-1989年安西极旱荒漠自然保护区进行了首次全面的综合考察,为了解1988年以来保护区鸟类资源的变化及其原因,2002-2004年又4次调查了该地区鸟类的种类及数量。15年来安西自然保护区的鸟类资源变化明显。鸟类种类新增加31种(其中甘肃新记录3种),但同时减少了36种。国家重点保护鸟类由原来的18种下降到16种。与1988-1989年相比,2002-2004年春季和夏季鸟类数量下降,秋季数量增加;各个季节的优势种的种类和数量都发生明显变化。影响安西自然保护区鸟类资源变化的主要原因是鸟类迁徙和人类活动。     

Impact of Climate Change on Possible Scenarios for Egyptian Agriculture in the Future

If no timely measures are taken to adapt Egyptian agriculture to possible climate warming, the effects may be negative and serious. Egypt appears to be particularly vulnerable to climate change because of its dependence on the Nile River as the primary water source, its large traditional agricultural base, and its long coastline, already undergoing both intensifying development and erosion. A simulation study characterized potential yield and water use efficiency decreases on two reference crops in the main agricultural regions with possible future climatic variation, even when the beneficial effects of increased CO₂ were taken into account. On-farm adaptation techniques which imply no additional cost to the agricultural system, did not compensate for the yield losses with the warmer climate or improve the crop water-use efficiency. Economic adjustments such as the improvement of the overall water-use efficiency of the agricultural system, soil drainage and conservation, land management, and crop alternatives are essential. If appropriate measures are taken, negative effects of climate change in agricultural production and other major resource sectors (water and land) may be lessened. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

减少农业甲烷排放的技术选择

文章总结了温室气体甲烷的最新研究进展,包括:甲烷对全球变暖的贡献,甲烷的排放机理以及优先研究的领域;估算了我国农业甲烷排放的贡献:中国约占世界人工源甲烷排放量的10.48％,其中农业排放占一半以上;根据实验结果,提出了筛选低排放水稻品种、水分管理、施肥管理、改进饲料、使用添加剂和生长调节剂、改进遗传、促进繁育等减少稻田和反刍家畜甲烷排放的若干技术选择。     

基于长期试验资料对中国农田表土有机碳含量变化的估算

分析了文献报道的我国26个长期试验站点29个长期试验的农田土壤有机碳变化情况,并据此分析了近20年来我国农田土壤表层有机碳储量的可能变化范围。收集的长期试验涉及水稻土、红壤、黑土、棕壤、潮土等15种土壤类型。选择每一长期试验的不施肥对照(0类)、有机碳含量增长最慢或下降最快(I类)、增长最快或下降最慢(II类)、纯化肥NPK平衡施肥(III类)4种处理进行分析,分别代表极端耗竭、不合理施肥、增长潜力和常见施肥情景下的土壤有机碳含量(储量)变化。结果表明,对照土壤的有机碳含量变化速率平均为-0.06g·kg-1·a-1;I、II、III类处理情景下土壤有机碳含量变化率分别为-0.008g·kg-1·a-1、0.29g·kg-1·a-1和0.05g·kg-1·a-1。据此推算,在极端耗竭情景下,过去20年全国农田表土有机碳贮量减少419Tg;在I、II或III类处理情景下,农田表层土壤有机碳储量变化分别为下降99Tg、增加1.56Pg和增加208Tg。II类和III类处理情景的有机碳储量变化量差值表明,我国农田表层土壤具有较大的固碳潜力。     

Neural network modelling for the analysis of forcings/temperatures relationships at different scales in the climate system

A fully non-linear analysis of forcing influences on temperatures is performed in the climate system by means of neural network modelling. Two case studies are investigated, in order to establish the main factors that drove the temperature behaviour at both global and regional scales in the last 140 years. In particular, our neural network model shows the ability to catch non-linear relationships among these variables and to reconstruct temperature records with a high degree of accuracy. In this framework, we clearly show the need of including anthropogenic inputs for explaining the temperature behaviour at global scale and recognise the role of El Niño southern oscillation for catching the inter-annual variability of temperature data. Furthermore, we analyse the relative influence of global forcing and a regional circulation pattern in determining the winter temperatures in Central England, showing that the North Atlantic oscillation represents the driven element in this case study. Our modelling activity and results can be very useful for simple assessments of relationships in the complex climate system and for identifying the fundamental elements leading to a successful downscaling of atmosphere–ocean general circulation models.     

Governing the termination problem in solar radiation management

ABSTRACT

Technologies for Solar Radiation Management (SRM) could limit global warming by manipulating the Earth’s radiation balance. A major objection to SRM is the termination problem: the catastrophic consequences that are likely to result from its sudden discontinuation. The termination problem limits the reversibility of policy choices and poses the risk of inadvertent or enforced program collapse. It is often considered a major impediment to the governability of SRM. In a first attempt to systematically engage with the question of institutional design for resolving the termination problem, the scenarios in which the termination problem arises as well as their respective drivers are identified. Scenarios and drivers are then used to derive institutional solutions in the form of excludable benefits, scientific oversight and phase-out mechanisms. While other objections to SRM may remain valid, it is concluded that the termination problem raises fewer challenges for international governance than is usually assumed.