Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in the Upper Blue Nile River Basin,Ethiopia1

Kim, Ungtae and Jagath J. Kaluarachchi, 2009. Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in the Upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 45(6):1361‐1378. Abstract: Climate change affects water resources availability of international river basins that are vulnerable to runoff variability of upstream countries especially with increasing water demands. The upper Blue Nile River Basin is a good example because its downstream countries, Sudan and Egypt, depend solely on Nile waters for their economic development. In this study, the impacts of climate change on both hydrology and water resources operations were analyzed using the outcomes of six different general circulation models (GCMs) for the 2050s. The outcomes of these six GCMs were weighted to provide average future changes. Hydrologic sensitivity, flow statistics, a drought index, and water resources assessment indices (reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability) were used as quantitative indicators. The changes in outflows from the two proposed dams (Karadobi and Border) to downstream countries were also assessed. Given the uncertainty of different GCMs, the simulation results of the weighted scenario suggested mild increases in hydrologic variables (precipitation, temperature, potential evapotranspiration, and runoff) across the study area. The weighted scenario also showed that low‐flow statistics and the reliability of streamflows are increased and severe drought events are decreased mainly due to increased precipitation. Joint dam operation performed better than single dam operation in terms of both hydropower generation and mean annual storage without affecting the runoff volume to downstream countries, but enhancing flow characteristics and the robustness of streamflows. This study provides useful information to decision makers for the planning and management of future water resources of the study area and downstream countries.     

大坝安全监测的现状与发展趋势

阐述了大坝安全监测的内涵及意义。分别从大坝安全监测的内容、思维、分析方法和技术手段四个方面介绍了大坝安全监测的现状和发展趋势,并指出自动化、数字化、一体化、效益化是大坝安全监测的最终发展方向。     

考虑拦污栅-坝体相互作用的混凝土重力坝抗震安全性分析

对考虑拦污栅-坝体的动力相互作用的弹性连接和刚性连接的拦污栅-坝体以及不作耦联分析的拦污栅-坝体这三种不同模型结构形式的动力特性和动力响应进行了比较分析。研究发现,拦污栅的不同模型结构形式对大坝的抗震安全性分析有重要影响,考虑拦污栅-坝体的动力相互作用后,坝体损伤开裂的程度明显加大,坝顶的水平位移响应也明显提高。按《规范》规定的对拦污栅和坝体不作耦联分析的抗震计算方法,所得结果对坝体是偏于不安全的,而如考虑拦污栅-坝体之间的弹性连接,所得结果则是偏于安全的。     

深厚黄土覆盖层上土石坝地震响应特性分析

采用非线性有限单元法和笔者曾提出的动孔压试验曲线法,对某深厚黄土覆盖层上土石坝进行了有效应力法地震响应分析,重点分析大坝的绝对加速度、动位移和动应力等动力响应及动孔隙水压力分布情况。分析结果表明,在现有设计条件下,由于坝基软弱黄土覆盖层较厚,大坝在7度地震作用下地震响应不强烈,但坝基黄土覆盖层会出现液化情况,需采取相应的抗液化工程措施。     

尾矿坝溃坝模型研究及应用

根据多个大坝的实际溃决资料,提出尾矿坝溃坝的数学模型,该模型考虑尾矿的物理力学性质及其在流动中的变形,适合溃坝砂流下泄流量变幅大的特点。并就尾矿坝溃坝后泥石流对坝下游的影响提出预测的方法,该方法确定了泄砂总量、溃坝口平均宽度、坝址最大砂流量、坝址流量过程线等溃坝的重要参数。最后利用数学模型对某尾矿库溃坝砂流进行了预测,并指出该坝下游人员的撤离高程,为防灾减灾以及保护人民生命财产安全等起到了积极作用。     

Demolish it and They Will Come: Estimating the Economic Impacts of Restoring a Recreational Fishery1

Abstract: This paper presents the results of an ex post survey of recreational anglers for the lower Kennebec River, post‐Edwards Dam removal. To the best of our knowledge, this study represents one of the first ex post analyses of fisheries restoration from dam removal. We find significant benefits have accrued to anglers using the restored fishery. Specifically, anglers are spending more to visit the fishery, a direct indication of the increased value anglers place on the improved fishery. Anglers are also willing to pay for increased angling opportunities on the river. These findings have policy implications for other privately owned dams that are currently undergoing relicensing and/or dam removal considerations. Our findings may also hold implications for fisheries that have deteriorated due to historic dam construction.     

溢流堰形态对水体营养盐及有机污染的影响

定期监测两种不同形态的溢流堰坝体上下点的溶解氧及水质变化,研究溢流堰形态对水体营养盐及有机污染的影响。结果表明:两种不同形态的溢流堰均可较好地提高水体的DO含量,且阶梯式溢流堰较斜面式溢流作用明显;高锰酸盐指数IMn、NH3-N、TP含量均减少,平均去除率阶梯式溢流堰均优于斜面式溢流堰。     

基于PDCA持续改善架构的企业业务持续管理研究

以研究业务持续管理相关的国际法规条款与PDCA持续改善架构,给出业务持续管理关键要素定义以其在PDCA架构中所担任的角色与位阶,进而制定企业业务持续管理的PDCA封闭式管理模型,并阐述企业典型业务持续管理各个要素的实行重点,为企业的业务风险管理提供可用的方法与可执行的建议。     

SIMULATED EFFECTS OF ALTERED SPILLWAY RELEASES ON THERMAL STRUCTURE AND KOKANEE GROWTH IN A COLORADO RESERVOIR1

ABSTRACT: In‐reservoir thermal and ecological effects of releasing some flows over the surface spillway at Blue Mesa Reservoir, Colorado, rather than routing all releases through the hypolimnetic outlet were evaluated using a calibrated and validated one‐dimensional thermal model (CE‐THERM) with a set of ecological models. Thermal model output indicated that surface water temperatures were influenced primarily by atmospheric conditions, but the release of warmer water over the spillway resulted in a thinner epilimnion and cooler metalimnetic water temperatures. Ecological model predictions indicated that spillway releases and associated temperatures resulted in lower growth rates for young‐of‐year (YOY) kokanee salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) in the reservoir by up to 9 percent when compared with growth rates under baseline operations with no releases over the spillway. Kokanee growth rates were reduced under spillway release scenarios because lower temperatures not only affected metabolic rates, but limited the productivity of the zooplankton as well. Thus, altering the release regime with spillway discharges could have deleterious effects on Blue Mesa's YOY kokanee. However, in other reservoirs, distributing discharges among different elevations may provide managers with a mechanism to regulate temperatures to benefit species of concern that are facing challenges imposed by environmental conditions such as global warming.     

火电厂"三同时"验收应当注意的问题

根据建设项目竣工环境保护验收规范要求，提出火电厂在验收过程中应当注意的几个问题。